Analysing Aston Villa ahead of Sunday’s Premier League clash | OneFootball

An in-depth look at the Aston Villa side we’ll be facing this weekend…

We travel to Villa Park at 14:00 (UK) on Sunday 26 October looking a fourth successive win in the Premier League.

Pep Guardiola’s City go into the weekend second in the top-flight, three points behind leaders Arsenal after eight matches.

Can we pile the pressure on the Gunners?

With the help of Opta data, we take a look at the side standing in our way…

Recent form

After a five-game winless start in the Premier League this season, Aston Villa have since won each of their last three games.

The only team in top-flight history to have a five-game winless start then win their next four games are Preston in 1936/37.

Those three wins came against Spurs, Burnley and Fulham.

In total, they have 12 points from their first eight matches and sit 11th before the start of the weekend’s fixtures.

In terms of home form, Villa have only lost one of their last 22 Premier League games at Villa Park, winning 13 and drawing eight.

Preferred formation

Unai Emery has favoured a 4-2-3-1 shape during his time at Villa but has also been known to play 4-4-2.

Goalkeeper Emi Martinez is almost certain to start, while others such as right-back Matty Cash, centre-back Ezri Konsa, left-back Lucas Digne and attacking midfielders John McGinn and Morgan Rogers are almost ever presents.

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That means rotation in other areas, including in the central striker role that was formerly the sole preserve of Ollie Watkins, who enjoyed his best season in 2023/24 with 27 strikes in total.

However, the England international has just one goal so far this season so we’ll be looking to keep him quiet should he play on Sunday.

Summer activity

Aston Villa’s transfer window was quieter than most in the Premier League, with Ivorian striker Evann Guessand the only major outlay.

Victor Lindelof came in on a free after his Manchester United contract ended, while several teenagers came in from across Europe including Yasin Ozcan, Zepiqueno Redmond and Fletcher Boyd.

Jacob Ramsey was the biggest name to leave in the summer, heading to Newcastle United. Leander Dendoncker and Alex Moreno also found pastures new.

Manager

An outstanding coach for the better part of two decades now, Emery has managed some of the biggest clubs in Spain, England and France.

Perhaps the earliest of the modern wave of Basque coaches to stand out at the top level, Emery has extensive experience in the toughest club competitions there are.

He began his managerial career in 2004 with Spanish lower league side Lorca before taking in Almeria, Valencia and Spartak Moscow.

It was at Sevilla where he captured the attention of those outside his homeland, winning three straight Europa League titles from 2014 to 2016.

That earned him a move to Paris Saint-Germain, where he was tasked with gelling together a star studded squad. He won seven of the eight domestic trophies available to him in his two seasons, but exited the Champions League in the Round of 16 both terms.

From there, he went to Arsenal to replace the beloved Arsene Wenger. Emery won 43 of his 78 games, but it was perhaps an impossible task to replace the man who built the modern Arsenal.

A return to Spain, this time with Villarreal, yielded another Europa League success before he got to Aston Villa in November 2022.

Villa were at a particularly low ebb at the time and Emery immediately turned it around before earning Champions League qualification and some of the club’s greatest nights in a generation.

How they score their goals

With eight goals so far, Villa are the 14th most prolific side in the division. That comes from an xG of just 6.4, which is the second lowest above only Burnley.

Such a figure suggests that Villa are not creating a raft of good chances so far but that when they do, they tend to take them.

They’re yet to score a header or from a counter-attack, but that hasn’t stopped them putting in over a 100 open play crosses so far.

On the possession front, Villa are averaging 56.5% in Premier League games, not far behind City on 59.9%.

That means they complete around 450 passes per game, while we play 566 so fans can reasonably expect both sides to be patient on the ball.

Watkins and Rogers have been the two most creative in this fixture for Aston Villa in recent years, with the former registering four goal involvements in the last six games against us and the latter scoring once and assisting twice in his three appearances.

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Donyell Malan and Emi Buendia are Villa’s top scorers so far this season with two each.

How they defend

Villa have also conceded eight goals, which puts them sixth in terms of defences so far this season.

However, having allowed an xG of 10.5, they are outperforming the expectation on that front and may allow us to create good chances of our own.

Our hosts are particularly susceptible to a dead ball situation.

Five of the last seven Premier League goals they have conceded have come via set pieces (1x penalty, 1x throw, 3x corners), conceding from a corner in each of their last three games.

They also tend to start games slowly, having conceded three times in the opening 15 minutes already, with only two teams letting in more in the early knockings than that.

Goalkeeper Martinez has a save percentage of 70.6% from his six games, a number that places him ninth amongst the 27 goalkeepers used in the Premier League so far this season.

Head-to-head record

City have won 31 games and scored 101 goals against Aston Villa in the Premier League – only against Newcastle (32 wins, 106 goals) have we got a better win and scoring record.

This is the 51st time we have played in the Premier League, with Villa winning nine of them.

Seven of those Villa wins have come at Villa Park, including in the last two seasons – so Pep Guardiola will be hoping to turn that around in this game.