Arsenal v Man Utd: Back Saka and Odegaard as part of 35/1 Bet Builder say Opta | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta believe Saka and Odegaard are the route to Arsenal success over Manchester United

Virgil van Dijk was the post width away from landing last week's 19/1 Opta Bet Builder, so the brains at the Analyst are back once again with a betting preview ahead of Manchester United's trip to Arsenal...

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The season's first midweek round of fixtures in the Premier League has thrown up a treat, with Manchester United's trip to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal.

With both sides running on newly gathered momentum for different reasons, it promises to be an intriguing contest.

Let's have a look to see where the value is.

Arsenal to halt Manchester United momentum

Manchester United are in an eminently better place since the departure of Erik ten Hag.

They come into this game unbeaten in the seven matches in all competitions since the Dutchman was sacked, which is their longest run without defeat since January.

Two victories and a draw within that sequence have come under new head coach Ruben Amorim, with Sunday's 4-0 win over Everton being the biggest-ever margin of victory in a Premier League manager's home debut in the competition. It was also United's biggest win since beating Leeds 5-1 at Old Trafford in August 2021 during the Ole Gunnar Solskjaer era.

OK, that's the good news for the United fans, now we have to apply some perspective to the above statistics.

We can't ignore that six of the seven matches within their unbeaten sequence have been at Old Trafford. Given that Ten Hag won 42 of his 64 home games (65.6%) in charge of the club, there is an argument to suggest that an uplift in results might have happened regardless of the manager.

While the most testing fixture within that run was their 1-1 draw against Chelsea last month under Ruud van Nistelrooy, United haven't faced another team currently outside the bottom six in the Premier League since Ten Hag left.

The next highest-placed team United have faced in a league game during the run was 15th-placed Everton and their only away match in any competition since giving Ten Hag the boot was the 1-1 draw at Ipswich Town in Amorim's first game in charge.

That result made it six matches on the road without a win in all competitions, with the Red Devils' only away win of the season being the 3-0 victory at bottom club Southampton in September.

So, what we can say is that United have benefitted from a kinder run of fixtures under new management. Aside from their draw against Chelsea, they outranked each team they have faced by at least 37 places in the Opta Power Rankings.

A trip to second-placed Arsenal - where they have lost five of their last six matches - should provide an acid test that it is hard to see them coming through.

Mikel Arteta's side have won seven and drawn two of their nine matches in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium this season. Alongside Brentford and Brighton, they are one of just three Premier League sides yet to lose a home league game.

More pertinently though, they seem to have hit a new level since captain Martin Odegaard returned from injury.

The Norwegian's first start since the injury he picked up on international duty in early September was in Arsenal's 1-1 draw away to Chelsea last month. Since then, the Gunners have won three from three with an aggregate score of 13-3.

While there are 10 other players on the pitch for Arsenal, it is hard to look beyond the fact that, since Odegaard signed in 2021, they have won 67.5% of matches that he has played in. They have accrued an average of 2.2 points per game with Odegaard as opposed to 1.5 points per game without him.

Given the clubs' respective home and away records, it is not a huge surprise to see Arsenal so skinny at 4/9. Instead, it makes more sense to back them alongside the -1 handicap at 6/5, given that they are the second-highest scorers in the Premier League with 26 goals.

The Gunners have also been leading at half-time in five of Odegaard's eight appearances in all competitions this season, so 10/11 about them to win the first half looks a decent price.

Underperforming Raya could benefit United

Despite the expectation on Arsenal to win this game, there is enough in the statistics to suggest that United could at least have some joy at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday.

Arsenal have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 league games, with goalkeeper David Raya undergoing a slight wobble despite his side's impressive form.

While the Spaniard has conceded just 14 league goals this season - the equal-second fewest of any ever-present goalkeeper in the Premier League - he has a goals prevented figure of -2.3, which is the second-worst of any ever-present keeper in the division.

What that means for Raya is that, based on the difficulty of the shots he has faced, he would have been expected to keep more out of his goal.

With United having found the net in each of their last 10 matches - including three or more goals on four occasions since Ten Hag's departure - they are unlikely to lack confidence in front of goal.

Even though United have lost on their last three trips to the Emirates, they did score each time in 3-1, 3-2 and 3-1 defeats.

With Ben White a long-term defensive absentee for the hosts and question marks over the fitness of centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes, who was substituted at half-time against West Ham, there could be work to do at the back for Arsenal.

As a result, both teams to score looks like good value at 3/4, while over 3.5 goals is also tasty at 6/4.

Big hitters to have their say

When looking at the individual player markets, there are a few protagonists who jump off the page as having a decent chance of affecting this match.

As discussed, the first of those is Arsenal captain Odegaard, who has supplied two assists and one goal in his three Premier League matches since returning from injury.

As a measure of his influence since returning, the 27 final-third passes he made in the 5-2 victory over West Ham on Saturday were more than any other player in the game. Odegaard has also created 11 chances in the three matches since his return and is available at 6/5 to score or assist.

The only player to have created more chances in that timeframe is United captain Bruno Fernandes (12), who looks reborn after his early-season struggles. The 30-year-old has scored four goals and registered four assists since Ten Hag's departure, having previously failed to score all season. He is priced at 13/5 in the score or assist market.

Marcus Rashford is another player whose confidence looks to have improved, with his three Premier League goals under Amorim matching his total from the previous 23 matches.

Elsewhere, it is hard to overstate Bukayo Saka's contribution to Arsenal this season, with five goals and 10 assists - second only to Mohamed Salah in Premier League goal contributions.

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