Atletico Madrid v Tottenham: Back struggling sides to produce goals in Spain | OneFootball

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Tottenham turmoil and relegation peril

The Champions League round of 16 could prove a welcome distraction for a Tottenham Hotspur team that, with nine domestic matches left, sit just one point above the relegation zone and in danger of losing their Premier League status for the first time. Indeed from a pre-season price of 500/1 to go down, they are now just 7/4 to be playing Championship football next season.

Things are looking really bleak for Tottenham. They are the only Premier League side without a victory in 2026 and their 11-match winless league run is their longest since 1975. Their previous worst was a club record 16 games without a win in 1935. Their last league victory came in December, and since 7 January they've only been ahead in matches for a combined 13 minutes.

This Spurs side is setting unenviable streaks left, right and centre as since the start of last season only Wolves (20) have lost more home Premier League games than Spurs (19). They have conceded at least two goals in their last nine league matches - the first time ever in their history.

No new manager bounce for Spurs

Igor Tudor was supposed to come in and hit the ground running, but he has lost all three of his matches in charge by an aggregate score of 3-9. Since he arrived, Spurs are bottom of the league for goals conceded, expected goals conceded and points.

It's a small sample size but the underlying figures are not pretty. Compared to Thomas Frank's reign, they are conceding 3.2 more shots per-game (15.7 versus 12.5) and as a result are conceding 0.59 more xG per-game (2.04 v 1.54). Tudor has struggled to settle on a consistent formation having played all of a 3-4-3, 4-4-2 and 3-5-2 so far.

Atletico odds-on favourites to qualify against Spurs

Looking at the outright market, Atletico Madrid are 14/1 and Tottenham are just 22/1 - the same price as Chelsea and Newcastle. Atletico are 2/5 to qualify with Spurs 15/8, with the winners facing either Barcelona or Newcastle in the quarter-finals.

Considering the match odds, many might consider Atletico at 4/9 as a open goal given Spurs' woes but this is a side that finished just 14th in the league phase and had to win a two-legged play-off round to get here. Looking at Atleti's home odds this year against Spanish opposition makes for interesting reading:

Are Spurs a similar level or worse than those sides? I think right now the answer is the former meaning there's little value in backing the home side at the odds.

Best bet for Atletico Madrid v Tottenham

The best bet for me is to back goals. Fifteen of Atletico's last 24 games across all competitions have seen three or more goals (63%), including 10 of their recent 13. For Spurs, we know Igor Tudor's first three games have all seen Over 2.5 goals, and further back it's 18 of their last 25 providing winners (72%).

Long gone are the days of cagey Champions League football for Atleti under Diego Simeone with the Rojiblancos seeing nine of their 10 games in the competition this season registering Over 2.5 goals at a total of 43 goals - an average of 4.3 goals per-game, those are equivalent odds of just 1.25 for three or more goals. Tudor's managerial career is littered with goals at clubs where he's managed 15 games or more.

Over 2.5 goals pays 1.74 and to put that price into perspective, six of the other seven matches have much shorter odds at an average of just 1.57.

Now an alternative way to back goals, and at a bigger price, is to side with Both Teams to Score at 1.86, especially with us technically only needing two goals rather than three for a winner. My issue here however, is we want to oppose Spurs really given their predicament, and by backing Overs we're not reliant on both sides contributing which is useful in one sided games.

It comes down to choice and which you're more comfortable with but you need to be consistent in your decision making and when backing goals I don't mind where they come from. After all, Atletico may see this an excellent opportunity to put the tie to bed in the first leg at the Wanda Metropolitano for a side that put four past Barcelona here in the first-half alone.

Betfair are offering Bet £10 Get £10 on European football bet builders and accas this week but there is another way you can get the home team onside here, if that's what you want to do.