Brentford v Aston Villa: 7/2 Damsgaard can unlock leaky defence | OneFootball

English Premier League

Thomas Frank's Brentford have gone from heroes to zeroes on home soil

Brentford host Aston Villa in the Premier League in Saturday Night Football and Andy Schooler has 7/2 and 6/4 shots for the TV showdown.

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Brentford v Aston VillaSaturday 8 March, 17:30Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Brentford started the season as home bankers, winning their seven of their first eight Premier League games at the Gtech Community Stadium, while struggling to pick up a point on the road.

How times have changed.

They come into this contest without a win in their last seven at home in all competitions, but also on a four-match winning run on their travels.

Villa struggling - and conceding - away

That contrasts with Villa's away from. They've lost seven of their last nine away league games with the concession of goals a major problem - they've let in 2+ in eight of those matches.

Another concern for anyone thinking of backing the visitors is their record after Champions league fixtures.

Unai Emery's side may have one foot in the quarter-finals but their efforts in the UEFA competition have hurt them domestically with just one of the eight league games following a midweek European outing won. And that was the very first back in September.

The good news for Villa is they appear to have done the hard work in their Champions League last-16 tie, winning 3-1 at Club Brugge on Tuesday, so they should be able to field a stronger side here than might otherwise have been the case.

Still, it's hard to be confident about the outcome of this one - for the record Brentford are favourites to win the game at 2.36 with Villa 3.0 shots - although I am pretty convinced there will be goals.

Both have firepower in forward areas, while Brentford have scored the most home goals in the division this season, while Villa's defensive problems are shown up in the fact that only Wolves, Leicester and Southampton have conceded more on the road.

Brentford to score over 1.5 goals at 1.84 looks good, based on that.

However, both teams to score is just 1.49 (it's landed in six of the sides' seven Premier League meetings) and over 2.5 goals 1.54. Little is being given away there.

7/2 Damsgaard has player power

My approach is to look for better value in the player markets.

I'll start with turning to Mikkel Damsgaard for an assist.

The Dane is a player I've already mentioned on these pages this season and he's now up to 10 Premier League assists; only Mo Salah has more.

With Bryan Mbeumo (15 goals) and Yoane Wissa (12) ahead of him, he's got targets to hit. And he has hit them - Damsgaard sits 10th in the league for key passes (passes that lead directly to a shot).

With the stats suggesting Villa could easily concede multiple goals here, backing Damsgaard for an assist at 7/2 looks a decent call.

In the same market, it's also worth considering Marcus Rashford.

The England international has caught the eye since moving from Manchester United and looks to be enjoying his football again.

Part of that will have been Emery's decision to play him on the left of the attack, Rashford's favourite position, and from there he's already supplied three assists in seven appearances. Yet to complete 90 minutes, he's actually assisted once every 83 minutes so far in a Villa shirt.

The fact he's not finishing - and not always starting - matches will be off-putting to some but odds of 9/2 are certainly tempting, especially when you consider Brentford have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season.For those who like a big price, the assist double pays 23/1.

Target Tielemans in shots market

There are also opportunities in the shots markets.

Brentford's biggest threats, Mbeumo and Wissa, have both hit 3+ shots in seven of their last eight games, landing the double in six of them. That pays evens this time around.

I've also been following Andres Garcia since his January arrival.

The right-back, who seems likely to come back into the side here, was a shots regular at Levante, hitting one in 10 of his last 12 matches for the Spaniards.

So far at Villa, he's delivered on the 1+ shot bet in three of six starts and here goes up against a team which has conceded more shots than every other side bar rock-bottom Southampton.

However, with that latter stat in mind, the shots bet I'm going to play is Youri Tielemans to have two or more.

The Belgian midfielder has landed this in five of his last eight games - and in his last three away league matches, a sequence which included a trip to high-flying Arsenal.

As well as striding forward from deep in open play, Tielemans is a strong free-kick taker and that often results in shots. On that front, it's notable that Villa are the Premier League's most-fouled team.

Opta fact

No team's Premier League games have seen both teams score more often than Aston Villa's this season (20), with the Villans netting and conceding in each of their last four.

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Recommended bets

1pt Mikkel Damsgaard anytime assist @ 7/21pt Youri Tielemans 2+ shots @ 6/4

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 24pts Returned: 26.64pts P/L: +2.64pts

2023/24: +4.54pts