Brentford v Wolves: Back the Bees to win without conceding | OneFootball

Brentford aiming for Europe

Having previewed last week's FA Cup fifth round tie between West Ham and Brentford, in which I tipped the Bees to win, I was slightly disappointed with how Keith Andrews' men performed.

As expected, Andrews named a full strength XI from the players available to him while his opposite number Nuno Espirito Santo made some changes to his starting line-up, but I thought it was the Hammers who were the better team largely throughout the game, and although they needed a penalty shoot-out to get across the line it's difficult to argue that they didn't deserve the win.

So having to preview Brentford again just one week later presents a bit of a conundrum. Are they not as good as I thought, or was last week just one of those games that can be easily forgiven. You'll get my answer to that question a bit further down this page.

The reality is that the Bees have been excellent this season. Sitting seventh in the table going into Matchday 30, just four points behind Chelsea and Liverpool in fifth and sixth, Andrews' men have a great chance of qualifying for European football next season, and that would be a magnificent achievement for a club prominent in the relegation market back in August.

Key to Brentford's successful campaign to date has been some excellent performances and results at the Gtech Community Stadium, and although they've failed to win any of their last three on home soil, they did draw against league leaders Arsenal in that spell so Bees fans shouldn't be too concerned just yet.

Talk of a Wolves miracle escape

Wolves' season has been nothing short of disastrous, and it will almost certainly end in relegation to the Championship with the tag of being one of the worst Premier League teams in history.

But to their credit, Rob Edwards' men are trying their hardest to shake that tag, and following back-to-back league wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool there has even been some talk of Wolves pulling off the most miraculous escape ever. But even if the teams in and around the relegation zone lost every one of their remaining games, Edwards' men would still need to win at least five of their remaining eight matches. For a team that has won three out of 30, that's not going to happen.

Still, Wolves should go to the Gtech on Monday night with renewed confidence following those two excellent recent wins, the problem being, they've since lost to Liverpool in the FA Cup and their away form is appalling.

Wolves sit rock bottom of the away table having failed to win any of their 14 Premier League away games this season. Their four draws mean they have taken just four points from a possible 42 on the road and they are, by some distance, the lowest scorers in the league with just five goals scored in those 14 away games.

In the Mach Odds market, Brentford are the rightful favourites at 4/7 to win the game with Wolves at 5/1 and the Draw priced up at 16/5.

I think Brentford will win the match, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing them to do so, but as a single I'm not one for tipping up anything shorter than 4/5 or 8/11 generally, so I'll stop short of putting them up as a selection, though I'll reiterate that I do fancy them to win and I will back them to do so in another way.

Below you can follow the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market which will update in real time.

English Premier League: Brentford v Wolves (Match Odds)

Monday 16 March, 8.00pm

In all honesty, it's impossible not to fancy the Bees to take all three points. They've beaten the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Newcastle on home soil this term as well as holding Arsenal and Chelsea to draws. They've also won by three-goal margins against mid-table Sunderland and Bournemouth and you can say that their only blip in front of their own fans this term was a 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest.

I can certainly forgive them one bad performance at the Gtech, and to answer the question I posed earlier, I am willing to forgive their below-par performance at West Ham last week now that they're back on home soil against the Premier League's worst team.

So I'm going to back Brentford to Win to Nil at 17/10.

The Bees have kept two clean sheets in their last five home games, which isn't a bad record when you consider that two of the three games that they did concede in where against Arsenal and Brighton. But it's the fact that Wolves are the lowest scorers on the road in the Premier League this terms that adds confidence to the bet, with Edwards' men failing to score in nine of their 14 away matches this term.

Wolves the kings of half time stalemates

It's a theme that everyone seems to be latching on to at present that games involving Wolves tend to be without much entertainment during the first half. Incredibly, just one first half goal has been scored by either team in Wolves' last seven matches which obviously means that six of them have been 0-0 at the interval.

When it comes to shots, Brentford have the third lowest number (304) in the Premier League this season at an average of just 10.5 per game, while Wolves, as we've already mentioned, rarely score away from home, so it's very easy to envisage this encounter being another game that is goalless at the interval, and I would usually say that's worth an interest at 12/5.

But if, like me, you think there's a good chance of the game being 0-0 at half time before Brentford go on to win, then the Draw/Brentford in the Half Time/Full Time market is the bet to have at 7/2. This way we don't just get the 0-0 half time scoreline on our side, we get any scoreline that has both teams being level.

Of course, if you don't want to include the risk of the Bees having to win the second half then by all means back the 0-0 half time score, which you can do so here (under 0.5 first half goals). But for me, I'll go with the Draw/Brentford bet.

Lewis-Potter and Thiago the players to have on side

I haven't mentioned any players yet as my bets for this game are team-based with the expectation that both teams will line up as strong as possible from the players available, and that form and trends point to a home win with hopefully the away team not scoring.

But if I were looking to have player bets then the two I'd be concentrating on are Keane Lewis-Potter and Igor Thiago.

Sadly, the markets have definitely latched on to Lewis-Potter but he may still be worth including in some form or another in a bet builder. The Brentford wing-back has been played much further up the field this season, often in attack just behind Thiago, and he's proved to be a real goal threat. However, last week against West Ham he played as a left wing-back and had a great game, registering two shots at goal and often being key to Brentford's attacks.

I've got a feeling he'll play at left wing-back again on Monday night (Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry are both out injured), so the best angle for him might be to register an assist, for which he can be backed at 4/1.

Thiago needs little introduction. He's been one of the best strikers in the Premier League this season with 18 goals to his name, just four behind Erling Haaland, and last week he scored a brace in Brentford's FA Cup exit at West Ham. He's 8/11 to score anytime, which is more than fair, but for a Bet Builder how about having Thiago to score anytime, Lewis-Potter to register an assist and Brentford to win the game, which pays out at just shy of 7/1.