Carabao Cup and Newcastle United – Massive opportunity open up to third final in four seasons | OneFootball

Exactly six months and one week ago, Newcastle United lifted the Carabao Cup at Wembley.

As you might have heard somewhere, this was United’s first silverware in 56 years.

I don’t want to get over confident but my gut feeling is that as Newcastle United fans we might not have to endure another 56 years of more before the next trophy comes along.

Which is just as well because the odds are ‘slightly’ against me being around in 2081.

Indeed, could the wait end up being less than 56 weeks this time…?

Whilst the haters will hate, any normal person would accept that the 2025 League Cup triumph was the greatest in the competition’s 60+ year history.

Newcastle United defeated AFC Wimbledon, Brentford who finished 10th in the Premier League, Forest who ended up 7th, Chelsea who finished 4th in the league, beat Arsenal twice who were runners-up in the PL, plus of course runaway champions Liverpool.

After experiencing the most difficult set of challenges you could imagine last season in a cup competition, to then end up getting to Wembley and winning it.

Maybe this season will see fate deliver a far smoother path to a potential Wembley return.

This 2025/26 season, Newcastle United not only don’t have to bother with the first round of the Carabao Cup, we also got a bye in the second round. As one of the European competition competitors, for some reason the stronger clubs also get this helping hand in the League Cup.

It gets better again, as Newcastle United then also get a helping hand in round three of the Carabao Cup this time in 2025/26.

The Carabao Cup third round draw saw this season’s Champions League and Europa League competitors unable to play each other, due to scheduling of matches in the enlarged UEFA competitions.

So for a place in the last sixteen, Newcastle United couldn’t draw any of the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Spurs or Nottingham Forest.

So we had every chance then of a very kind draw and winnable match for Newcastle United in the third round which could/would take NUFC into the last 16, which would mean only two wins away from another two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final.

Nobody should be taking it as a formality BUT on the other hand, nobody can complain when NUFC end up getting a home draw against a lower league side. Bradford City are riding high at the top of League One but if United don’t go through on Wednesday then only themselves to blame.

When you compare that to the FA Cup, you come to see why the Carabao Cup could be far more achievable (again!) for Newcastle United than the other domestic competition.

In the Carabao Cup, to get to a two-legged semi-final having to win only two matches in free draws (plus the seeded third round, where NUFC couldn’t play any of the top teams).

In the FA Cup, to get to the semi-final having to win four matches (3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th rounds), all of them free draws where you can draw anybody.

I wouldn’t be booking your Wembley hotel just yet BUT this all explains why year after year we have so often seen the same small group of top clubs invariably contest the Carabao Cup final.

The thing is as well, if Newcastle United get past Bradford, then the chances have also seriously increased of a kind draw on Wednesday night, to play for a place in the quarter-finals.

The Premier League teams that last season finished 6th (Villa), 7th (Forest) and 9th (Bournemouth) have already been knocked out. Other Premier League clubs also already eliminated – Sunderland, Leeds, Man U and West Ham.

Wolves and Everton play each other tonight, so that will be another Premier League club that goes.

As things stand, the only Premier League clubs to have made it through so far to the last 16 of the Carabao Cup are Palace and Brentford.

Five Premier League teams play tonight, as well as Wolves v Everton, then another three PL teams (as well as Newcastle) play on Wednesday.

Swansea and Grimsby are already through, then you have Wigan v Wycombe and Wrexham v Reading tonight as well, so that is a minimum of four lower league clubs in the last 16 draw.

If Newcastle United take care of their own business at St James’ Park tomorrow night, I have a feeling that fate may well deliver another kind draw.

If getting through, end of October would be the fourth round and then mid-December you have the quarter-finals. If Newcastle United make the last eight again (as they have done all of these past three seasons!), all the new signings would by then have had time to fully integrate and fingers crossed, a positive injury and fitness situation overall.

The (League Cup) Carabao Cup Final was usually end of February but Newcastle United defeated Liverpool on Sunday 16 March 2025, now it is stretching further away from the late February slot, as next season Wembley will host the final on Sunday 22 March 2026.

Here’s hoping for a third Wembley appearance in four seasons for Newcastle United.

It has been a quite remarkable last few years for Newcastle United with the Carabao Cup.

Three seasons of the competition so far for Eddie Howe and the current owners.

In 2022/23 Newcastle United reached the Carabao Cup final at Wembley and lost to Manchester United.

In 2023/24 Newcastle United were seconds away from a second Carabao Cup semi-final in consecutive seasons, only for bad luck and decision making to bring about a very late equaliser, then penalty shootout knockout at Stamford Bridge. On top of the Tonali suspension, the injury situation had become truly horrendous by mid-December 2023.

No matter, as 2024/25 saw Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United go on a brilliant run in the Carabao Cup (League Cup) and just went and won the bloody thing!

This three year run in the competition is very impressive BUT when you consider the League Cup history of Newcastle United, it is beyond belief.

The first 34 years of the League Cup saw Newcastle United go beyond round three on only three occasions and considering almost all of those seasons (apart from very early on) NUFC started off in round two, it was incredible how bad United were in this competition.

Indeed, until Eddie Howe came along, in over 60 years Newcastle United only reached the semi-final stage of the League Cup once, when losing finalists in 1976.