Could Manchester City target a Premier League striker as their Julian Alvarez replacement? | OneFootball

While Manchester City looked to be happy following their business following the departure of Julian Alvarez, which nearly made them ten fold of their initial investment, it does leave them in quite a predicament.

In the absence of the World Cup Winner, Pep Guardiola is left without an out-and-out striker to support Erling Haaland.

While this isn’t exactly an issue for the Catalan tactician, who famously won the top-flight without a traditional number nine, it is safe to say having squad depth isn’t the worst thing in the world.

One potential player who could fill the shoes left by the departed Argentine is Ivan Toney, who is entering the final year of his contract at Brentford and at the centre of ongoing transfer uncertainty this summer.

The immediate future of the England international striker is up in the air, largely after he was dropped from Thomas Frank’s squad against Crystal Palace on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

This decision came amid consistent rumours regarding the permanent sale of Ivan Toney, who most recently was being eyed by Saudi Pro League side Al Ahli, according to The Athletic’s Jay Harris.

The most recent bids for the 28-year-old are understood to be in the region of £35 million, which is quite some distance away from Brentford’s £50 million price tag, as reported by The Guardian.

Given the healthy amount of profit brought in by the Julian Alvarez deal involving Atletico Madrid, who sanctioned an initial fee of €75 million plus a further €20 million in add-ons, could Manchester City swoop for the England international?

In signing Ivan Toney, the reigning Premier League champions would get an experienced goal scoring machine, who has appeared in 85 top-flight matches, recording a total of 36 goals thus far.

During the 2022/23 season, Toney would wrap up the campaign with 20 goals, finishing above the likes of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford, and Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli.

While last season doesn’t offer the greatest pool of data due to Ivan Toney being reinstated into the Brentford squad midway through the season after serving a ban due to gambling rule breaches, his 2022/23 campaign offers more.

Beyond his aforementioned goal tally, Ivan Toney proved to be ranked in the 86th percentile or above in several offensive categories such as goals per 90 minutes, xG, as well as shots made from free kicks.

Tactically, Toney provides a similar profile to Manchester City’s Erling Haaland in the build up of possession and execution in the final third, with their strike maps being extremely similar.

One area that sees the two differ is their position in the build up, with the Norwegian parking himself in the middle of the pitch, in contrast to the 28-year-old, who tends to stray to the left side of the pitch before storming into the box.

Haaland 23/24 Heat Map

Toney 22/23 Heat Map

Heat Maps via Sofascore

While it would make sense from a tactics perspective to sign the England international, ultimately it would come down to the financial side of the deal, as spending £50 million on a 28-year-old back-up player not being the most realistic outcome.

One thing the Cityzens could do is simply wait for the January transfer window where it could be imagined that Brentford would look to cut their initial asking price as a way of recouping some money before his contract expires at the end of the season.

From the 28-year-old’s perspective, a move to the Etihad Stadium wouldn’t be the worst thing, as The Athletic’s Jay Harris writes, Toney wants to play “for a top club, fighting for titles”, where would be a better place to do this than the reigning Premier League champions, who are on the quest of winning their fifth consecutive title.

The only remaining factor for the Englishman would be that of playing time, as it would be assumed that he’d play back up for Erling Haaland.

Given that Ivan Toney is now 28 years old and having only made his first England international call up back in 2022, the lack of playing time may be a deterrent for making his move up north.