Derby v West Brom: Boxing Day draw the likely outcome at Pride Park | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Paul Warne gave his Derby players Christmas Day off

West Brom go to Derby on Boxing Day with manager Carlos Corberan reportedly a target for Valencia. Betting expert Mark O'Haire previews this Christmas clash and he believes both sides will take something from the game...

Derby v West BromThursday December 26, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Warne gives Derby players Christmas off

Derby head coach Paul Warne has given his side Christmas Day off with the pretence they send him a video of themselves running before midday. Ahead of the Rams' Boxing Day clash with West Brom, the County boss said he trusted his players would not lose their discipline following their gut-wrenching last-gasp defeat at Luton last Friday night.

Warne admitted he was proud of Derby's performance at Kenilworth Road but conceded the defeat felt "pretty raw" post-match. The Rams had looked on course for a second away win of the season when Kayden Jackson's header had given them a deserved lead. However, two huge, deflected goals in stoppage-time turned the game completely on its head.

The Rams have regrouped in the aftermath and are looking to get back on track in front of their own supporters, picking up no new injuries during the defeat. Despite concerns, Kenzo Goudmijn, Jerry Yates and Jackson have all been passed fit - Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Marcus Harness will both be hoping for recalls after coming off the bench at Luton.

Speculation surrounds Corberan's future

West Brom's preparations for Boxing Day have been plagued by reports in Spain suggesting Albion head coach Carlos Corberan is on the verge of being appointed as Valencia's new boss. The 41-year-old has been labelled Los Che's 'favourite' for the vacant position with negotiations apparently advancing rapidly, though the Baggies are yet to comment.

Corberan took his pre-match press conference as standard on Monday, taking the opportunity to complain about WBA's festive schedule. Sunday's 2-0 success over Bristol City was Albion's first of five fixtures in the space of 14 days with the Baggies boss bemused by the fact his side have 48 hours' less preparation time than Derby for Boxing Day.

Albion's victory was only their fourth home league win of the season with Mikey Johnston striking twice to seal top honours. The Glasgow-born Republic of Ireland international ended his personal drought with two strikes in nine first-half minutes - his first goals since April - to push West Brom up to seventh in the Championship standings, level with Middlesbrough.

Albion slight favourites at Pride Park

Matches between Derby and West Brom have been competitive across this century with the Rams enjoying a slight W6-D4-L5 supremacy in head-to-head encounters. County are unbeaten in six league showdowns when welcoming Albion to Pride Park (W4-D2-L0), beating the Baggies 1-0 in their most recent clash here back in December 2021.

Newly-promoted Derby 2.90 start the Christmas period six points clear of the drop-zone with Expected Points (xP) rankings placing the Rams in 15th. County have been difficult to beat at Pride Park (W5-D2-L3) and boast the fourth-best Expected Goals (xG) process in front of their own supporters. Recently Derby have returned W2-D6-L5 in league outings.

West Brom 2.86 remain obdurate opposition under Carlos Corberan's tutorship, suffering only three league losses thus far (W8-D11-L3). Albion are an impressive W8-D5-L0 when facing teams outside of the top-10, and feature in the top-seven of the xG ratio rankings when on the road. WBA have kept an eye-catching 11 (50%) clean sheets this term.

Stalemate stands out

Goals have not been particularly fluent when Derby and West Brom have been involved - only 18 of their combined 44 Championship fixtures have featured three strikes or more, and the market is anticipating a tight tussle between the pair on Boxing Day. The goal expectancy sits at just 2.25 and a low goal expectancy increases the likelihood of a draw.

I'm therefore happy to take a chance on the Draw at 3.20 - the biggest of the three Match Odds offerings here, despite landing in six of Derby's recent 13 league dates (only two of which were settled by multiple goals). The stalemate has also banked in a league-high 11 (50%) of West Brom's matches, including 10 of their most recent 14 encounters.

Recommended bets

Back the Draw @ 3.20