Djurgarden v Chelsea: Four tips including hosts to win corner-count at 9/2 | OneFootball

UEFA Europa Conference League

Maresca's ways have been criticised by Chelsea's fan-base

Ste Tudor backs Chelsea to overcome a dodgy pitch and their own wastefulness this Thursday even if there is value in backing the hosts to win the most corners...

After topping the League Phase by four clear points in the Europa Conference League, before comfortably seeing off Copenhagen and Legia Warsaw in the knockout rounds, Chelsea have reached the semi-finals of a competition they have been backed to win from the get-go.

From the moment their participation was confirmed - via a play-off victory over Servette way back in August - the Blues have been priced up as strong favourites and unsurprisingly those odds have only shortened as they have progressed through the tournament with relative ease.

Presently, Enzo Maresca's men are 4/11 to lift the trophy in Wroclaw next month and 1/4 to triumph in their semi-final first leg in Stockholm this Thursday.

Of course, such odds are a touch prohibitive, but fear not, because there is plenty of value to be found elsewhere ahead of this first-leg clash in Scandinavia. That's assuming Djurgarden's pitch behaves itself.

Even Djurgarden players hate the pitch

"The ball just slides away from your foot all the time." "The pitch is horrible." "It's a sh**ty pitch."

You may think these are comments made by Djurgarden's opponents, having come undone by the Iron Stoves' artificial surface. In actual fact, they have been uttered through gritted teeth by the club's winger, striker and head coach in recent weeks.Such is the poor state of the 'grass' at the 3Arena it lends an air of unpredictability to what would otherwise be a straightforward David v Goliath scenario. It also suggests a low-scoring affair awaits us, with creativity stymied and quality deliveries kept to a minimum.

This we have already seen in Djurgarden's first three home games of the 2025 Allsvenskan season with Jani Honkavaara's side drawing 0-0, losing 0-1 and winning 1-0.

Chelsea, it must be said, have been extremely wasteful at times in 2024/25 on pristine green carpets. Expect that to continue on Thursday with crosses overhit and chances being spurned, all accompanied by exasperated expressions.

Back Nicolas Jackson to score again

That's not to say the visitors won't be taking a lead into the return leg at the Bridge. They very likely will, but given the circumstances - as well as Liverpool lying in wait in the league at the weekend, compromising Maresca's team selection here - a victory by a single goal margin would be wholly welcomed. The 5/2 for that outcome appeals.

As for who might grab the headlines in Sweden, attention turns to Nicolas Jackson, who ended a 13-game goal-drought last weekend with a smartly taken winner. The 23-year-old has only played 45 minutes of Conference League football this term, but feels like a shoo-in to start here and if so that strike against Everton becomes pertinent.

Very much a confidence player, it's telling that Jackson's 27 goals for Chelsea since joining in 2023 have typically come in two-or-three game bursts.

Shots, shots, shots

Maresca's pragmatic - some might say cautious - brand of football might rub Chelsea fans up the wrong way but unquestionably it leads to a high volume of chances being created with Jackson and Cole Palmer leading the way for shots undertaken. The latter has taken on 3.68 per 90 all season long.

What's more, Chelsea's steady stream of attempts on goal is increasingly translating to shots on target, with 42 posted in their last five outings. They managed 24 in their five games prior.Indeed, it is their most prolific return for SOT across a five-match sequence since mid-December.

We will know 10 minutes into Thursday's contest to what extent Djurgarden's pitch limits accurate shooting but going into the game such a dramatic spike is hard to ignore.

Underdogs fancied in corner market

It's perfectly common for team's stats to vary from competition to competition. Yet what is odd about Chelsea's low corner-count on the continent - in comparison to elsewhere - is that by and large they have faced weaker opposition in the Conference League than in the Premier League.

Still, the figures don't lie. Domestically, Chelsea have averaged 6.2 corners per 90 this term. In Europe that decreases to 4.8. Remarkably, just one was won across 180 minutes in their Round of 16 encounters with Copenhagen, while only two were won at home to Legia earlier this month.

With a handful of fours elsewhere in the tournament, that opens the door for Djurgarden to at least win out in one regard in Stockholm. In hosting Rapid Vienna in the previous round, the Swedes racked up a respectable eight corners, four in each half.