Five reasons to believe in Amorim’s Manchester United 5⃣ | OneFootball

Manchester United has climbed to fifth place in the Premier League table after their Boxing Day victory over Newcastle United, and qualification for the Champions League seems increasingly realistic as we approach the halfway point of the 2025-26 Premier League campaign.

This represents a considerable improvement for a team that finished in the lower spots last season, much closer to the relegation zone than to the European places.

There are rumors, but do they really look like a serious team again? Here are five reasons to believe that Rubén Amorim is leading Manchester United down the right path.

5. Newcastle United

📸 Carl Recine - 2025 Getty Images

It’s been almost exactly a year since Manchester United last hosted Eddie Howe’s Magpies.

Talisman Bruno Fernandes was also unavailable for that match, and the duo of Casemiro and Christian Eriksen looked absolutely incapable of matching Newcastle’s hard-working midfield.

It was like watching a group of wandering retirees playing football against that Powerleague team that always takes things way too seriously.

The score was only 0-2, but there was a chasm between the two teams that night, later underlined by a combined league double of 6-1 and a gap of 10 places and 22 points in the final table.

Twelve months later, a makeshift Manchester United eleven managed a hard-fought 1-0 victory in this fixture. The win puts them in fifth place, six spots and six points ahead of Newcastle. The situation is changing.

4. Casemiro

📸 Carl Recine - 2025 Getty Images

“Leave football before football leaves you,” Jamie Carragher told Casemiro at the end of the 2023-24 campaign.

It was one of the harshest criticisms ever uttered by a pundit, but it’s hard to deny it had merit, as Manchester United struggled to an unthinkable 15th place last season, having been constantly bullied in midfield battles.

The veteran Brazilian has given a decent response this season. He struggles to play the full 90 minutes, and playing just one match a week certainly helps, but he’s been one of Manchester United’s best and most important players.

The difference between Casemiro being on the pitch and not is huge. Amorim deserves credit for turning around the fortunes of a player who seemed completely finished not long ago. He’s even preparing for a key role in Carlo Ancelotti’s Seleção midfield this summer.

3. 'Uncle Jeff’s Coefficient'

The Newcastle result points to a broader trend: the results of the corresponding fixtures from last season.

📸 Stu Forster - 2025 Getty Images

Manchester United has gained nine more points in the equivalent fixtures of 2024-25, thanks to the excellent UncleJeffsCoefficient.com for analyzing this long-standing talking point from the Totally Football Show podcast.

Only Manchester City and Sunderland have shown a greater improvement if you extrapolate this season’s results to last year. Liverpool and Newcastle, meanwhile, have suffered a drastic drop of 10 and 12 points, respectively.

It’s true that the bar was set very low to begin with. Finishing 15th again was practically impossible. But Tottenham (not improving by even a single point from last season’s 17th place) has shown that even the lowest bar can be a tricky hurdle.

2. Underlying Data

📸 DARREN STAPLES - AFP or licensors

Perhaps the biggest indicator of Manchester United’s improvement is the underlying “expected goals” data.

According to the always reliable stats goldmine FBref, only title contenders Manchester City and Arsenal have a higher xG difference than Amorim’s Red Devils this season. United have recorded an xG difference of +8.5.

Aston Villa, third in the table, for what it’s worth, has a negative expected goals (xG) differential of -4.1, worse than teams like Leeds, Fulham, and Everton. A reminder: while these figures can be useful, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Manchester United’s +32.7 xG is the highest in the entire division, although their xGA (expected goals against) is certainly quite imprecise, and only Wolves, West Ham, and Burnley have worse defensive numbers.

1. At Least It’s Not Boring

Let’s not go overboard with praise for summer signing Senne Lammens.

The win over Newcastle was only his second clean sheet in 12 Premier League matches. With 17 goals conceded, his record is hardly spectacular.

But, as the previous xG stats show, he’s not especially well protected by his defense. He’s one of the most active goalkeepers in the division.

The young Belgian has been far from flawless, but he’s also looked quite competent, avoiding mistakes and (for the most part) making the saves expected of him. He’s also been responsible for some key stops in the points won against Newcastle and Bournemouth.

Manchester United longed for this last season. The André Onana show was over. It took time, but Amorim finally identified and rectified the club’s most obvious problem from last season.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.

📸 Carl Recine - 2025 Getty Images