If there were ‘football justice’, these sides would be in the Champions League | OneFootball

In the same way Mikel Arteta discovered with Pep Guardiola’s second-half pressing plan in the Carabao Cup final, the Premier League always keeps you guessing. The football might not be the most expansive right now, but the play remains unpredictable. This weekend was vintage in terms of teams swinging abruptly back and forth – both in performance and results.

Liverpool’s good feeling from the 4-0 win over Galatasaray was immediately quashed, as a previously prosaic Brighton continued their own revival. Aston Villa had looked completely out of ideas while Nuno Espirito Santo continued to refine his plan, only for Unai Emery’s team to recover their verve and remind everyone of their quality. Having some of that quality back, like Youri Tielemans, admittedly helps.

Above all, Arsenal seemed to hold all the momentum in the title race, only for the Carabao Cup to allow Manchester City to cause a shift. The wider ramifications of that match are covered in more detail here, but one additional point is worth noting, given the focus of this newsletter. While City continue their habit of picking up trophies under Guardiola, the wait goes on for Arteta’s team. You could see the frustration in Declan Rice’s reaction. The one they really want is, of course, the Premier League – and they’d gladly make any such trade, of the type discussed in Nick Hornby’s Fever Pitch, if some metaphysical force meant they could now win the title.

This game might even offer insight into their potential title showdown with City. The lingering question until they do finally win it will nevertheless be whether the ongoing uncertainty caused by this defeat has a wider effect. It’s as if they need the release.

Not that he said it, but Arteta might well remind his players that at least they don’t have Tottenham’s problems.

It’s not just the improved mood from the 1-1 draw with Liverpool and 3-2 win over Atletico Madrid that went out the window with that stunning 3-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest. It was all the emotion and unity that came from that Copa Libertadores-style build-up.

As one figure with knowledge of the Spurs dressing room pondered afterwards, “How can you receive that welcome and not react to the enormity of it? They should have come out pumped.”

The irony is that there was some reaction. Spurs started the game well and looked like they were channeling that energy into a workable plan. They even seemed to have Forest’s number.

Then came the sucker punch. All that adrenaline seeped away, leaving the gameplan and the entire approach in tatters. A fragile team just couldn’t shift gears.

What a moment for Vitor Pereira’s first Premier League win as Forest boss. And what a contrast.

It’s remarkable to compare the scenes before the game, with the support trying to power Spurs to something more, to the final few minutes.

The overriding sense is one of waste. Spurs won’t be able to conjure that build-up again, at least not in the same way. This was the moment.

The club will once again have to try something – anything – different. Spurs also have to be sensitive, given that Igor Tudor has just suffered a personal bereavement, with news that his father sadly passed. Football is utterly trivial next to that, but the professional demands remain serious for the club hierarchy.

Having looked like they had secured a reprieve, Spurs are somehow in a worse position than before. Most directly, they’re in 17th rather than 16th. A step closer to relegation. But maybe that sense of waste is entirely fitting for a season characterised by it. See Chelsea, and the expense that has gone into that.

They look so different to the team that destroyed Villa 4-1 at the start of the month.

There’s another aspect of that result that now feels remarkable. It was one of just two victories – including Villa’s 2-0 over West Ham – that Chelsea, Villa and Liverpool have managed over the last three matchweeks. The form of the trio has been dismal.

Before Villa’s win on Sunday, they had one point from 12. Chelsea now have five from 18, Liverpool one from nine.

This is often the case with chasing Champions League sides, and it’s easily forgotten each season. Being clubs with the resources to fight for the title, anything below that represents underperformance – which naturally brings inconsistency. But inconsistency as bad as this? That may be true, yet it’s impossible not to feel this has been abnormally poor. Both Liverpool and Chelsea look broken.

Villa, for their part, are still overperforming just by being in the top five. And if there were any “football justice”, one of the perceived mid-table sides would join them in qualifying for the Champions League.

Against such underperformance from the wealthiest teams, it could be fairly said that Brentford, Everton, Fulham, Sunderland and Bournemouth are all overperforming.

With that part of the table so volatile, the question is whether one of them could end up on top of the shuffle by the end of the season.

Everton and Brentford must be fancying it. The two managers, David Moyes and Keith Andrews, deserve immense credit. Through all of this, it’s fair to say that this has been another “mid-table” season, much like last year. The middle classes are certainly enjoying themselves more than many of the elite.

Even they, however, must keep guessing about what comes next.

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