João Duque: "Transfer market? What Benfica and FC Porto did can't last…" | OneFootball

Economist João Duque stated that the record of 362.96 million euros (ME) spent by Primeira Liga clubs on signings at the start of the 2025/26 season is a consequence of the pressure exerted on Benfica and FC Porto.

After failing to halt Sporting’s victorious run in the last two seasons, the rivals of the national two-time champions jointly invested 216.9 ME in fixed amounts during the summer transfer window, with the ‘Dragons’ setting a new investment record in Portugal, reaching 111.35 ME.

“There are two very important phenomena here. Benfica has elections coming up and FC Porto, due to the recent election of the new president [André Villas-Boas], as they have not been getting results, started to feel deeply cornered and had to loosen the purse strings,” João Duque observed today, speaking to Lusa.

FC Porto, champions in 2022, spent 94.35 ME on new reinforcements, as part of a total investment of 111.35 ME, while Benfica, who previously held the record for this period (108.5 ME in the summer of 2020), came close to that amount by spending 105.55 ME on signings.

“Therefore, what will happen, from a financial point of view, is that one of the two, or even both, will have made a disastrous investment policy, because it is not possible for both FC Porto and Benfica to win the championship. They could both lose it,” he argued.

In Benfica’s case, the economist explained, the pressure on president Rui Costa intensifies due to the club’s social body elections, scheduled for October 25, a situation that contrasts with that of their Lisbon rival’s leader, Frederico Varandas.

“He doesn’t have that pressure. [For Sporting] not being national champions means not achieving the ‘three-peat’. Now, not being champions for I don’t know how many years, that’s already tough,” João Duque maintained.

Sporting was the club that made the most from sales, totaling 181.4 ME in fixed amounts (a new club record), driven mainly by the transfer of Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres to Arsenal for 65.8 ME, plus 10.3 ME in objectives, having reinvested only 79.8 ME in signings.

“Sporting can be accused of excessive conservatism in the use of resources. But I think it’s good to have a club that, after having experienced so much turmoil in terms of its very survival, is now tending towards stability,” he defended.

Benfica’s balance in the summer market resulted in a deficit of 10 ME, despite having significant revenue from sales, at 95.5 ME, while FC Porto recorded a negative result of 34.18 ME, having collected 77.17 ME from player departures.

“To make this effort, neglecting the club’s financial balance, and risking everything… This is not sustainable,” João Duque warned, predicting a busy winter market for these clubs in January, “if things start to go wrong.”

Sporting de Braga’s numbers are more modest in absolute terms, but the proportion is even more unfavorable than that of the ‘Eagles’ and ‘Dragons’: the club chaired by António Salvador spent 28.57 ME, a new record for the third consecutive year, and received only 9.90 ME.

With a total of 352.90 ME earned from player sales, the aggregate balance of Primeira Liga clubs remains positive at 17.94 ME, but this is the lowest amount in the last decade, something that could pose management challenges throughout the season, given the business model of Portuguese clubs.

“In all these signings, we only hear about the transfer fee. We don’t know the monthly payment to the players. There are departures, which ease the income statement, but the question is: in that operating account, what is the impact?” João Duque questioned.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.