Jones Knows Notebook: Why now is the time to lay Arsenal for the Premier League title

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·20. November 2025

Jones Knows Notebook: Why now is the time to lay Arsenal for the Premier League title

English Premier League

Lewis Jones is laying Arsenal for the title

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In his latest Notebook column, Lewis Jones finally gets to scratch the itch of taking on Arsenal in the Premier League title market on the Betfair Exchange. He is hitting the lay button...

Injuries, mental scars, open play chance creation all make Arsenal a lay
Fixture difficulty shows Man City & Liverpool have edge
Injury to Gabriel makes Arsenal vulnerable
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The time has come to oppose Arsenal

Timing is everything when it comes to betting. Making that right decision when to press the button on a particular selection, especially in the outright markets is a skill that every serious punter is trying to master.

At first glance, Arsenal look strong favourites for the Premier League title at 1.86 on the Betfair Exchange. Four points clear at the top, a defence that's been borderline perfect - surely this must be their year? I'm far from convinced.

I've always been of a strong view that this season would be a challenge for Arsenal in becoming champions, based on the huge pressure on Mikel Arteta's shoulders to win something. Mental fragility, their horrendous record with injuries and an over-reliance on set pieces have always been gnawing away at me even during their sensational run of winning 10 games to nil on the bounce.

Well, I've been waiting quietly in the shadows for my moment - having already taken a position earlier this year on laying them - and now might be the moment to press 'lay' again on Arsenal in the title winners market at 1.86.

Want to come with me? Here's why you should...

Injury issues, fixture difficulty, mental scares - why now is the time

One of the most powerful tools in betting markets is looking at the fixture difficulty for all the contending teams and, right now, Arsenal's closest rivals have a friendlier road ahead.

Manchester City and Liverpool have some of the softest fixtures across the next eight gameweeks, especially City, who after facing Newcastle at St James' Park this weekend have a real chance of winning seven games on the spin based on their next set of opponents: Leeds, Fulham, Crytal Palace, Sunderland, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland again.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have two fixtures against Aston Villa to come in the next eight, away games at Chelsea and Everton and home clashes with Tottenham and Brighton.

This is the period in the season where hitting form can shape your season. The November-January run is where the noise clears, the patterns sharpen and form turns from flicker to flame. If you want to know who's really in the title race, who's serious about Europe and who's in relegation quicksand don't bother with August fireworks or early-October hot streaks. This is the window to concentrate on.

It's in this next period where teams' tactical blueprints start to truly take shape, new signings have either bedded in or been exposed, squad depth - or lack of it - is ruthlessly uncovered by the fixture congestion and true performance metrics start to become reliable meaning form stabilises and reveal a team's real level.

Teams at the top fighting on all fronts can play 12 matches in six weeks. That's not a run, that's an examination of squad depth and character. One defeat can become four. One win can build into a run that transforms a season. Momentum isn't just helpful in this stretch, it's a superpower that can lead teams to winning titles.

Sir Alex Ferguson and anyone involve with the winning machine that was Manchester United will vouch for that.

Gabriel's absence leaves Arsenal vulnerable

The injury to Gabriel also is likely to be a problem for Mikel Arteta. Losing him, even temporarily, is a blow. Arsenal's defensive structure and confidence could wobble, especially under pressure without their dominant force at the heart of their epic defence.

There's been no official word from Arsenal on the injury Gabriel sustained on Brazil duty, although reports say he could be out for at least a month, maybe two.

Since September 2020 in the Premier League, Arsenal's win percentage drops from 64 per cent to 40 per cent when Gabriel is missing and they concede 0.2 more goals per 90 without the big Brazilian. If you only concentrate on recent data then the numbers scream louder.

Arsenal have won just three of their nine Premier League games without Gabriel, beating Newcastle, Ipswich and Southampton. And, in that time Arsenal have dropped nine points from winning positions. It's very un-Arsenal like.

I'm convinced this is the time the value hunters strike and lay the Gunners before the market wakes up.