Ligue 1 Tips: Back odds-against outcome in big Sunday showdown | OneFootball

French Ligue 1

Adrien Rabiot will be a key man for Marseille on Sunday night

Focus your attention on Ligue 1's top three teams on Saturday and Sunday night, writes James Eastham...

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PSG vs Nantes - Sat, 20:00

We correctly predicted that PSG would lose to Bayern Munich in the Champions League in midweek although it would be no surprise if the Ligue 1 champions bounced back from that most recent continental loss to win handsomely this weekend.

Paris may be struggling in the Champions League - they've picked up just four points from their opening five fixtures - but they head into the weekend with 32 points from 12 Ligue 1 games, and a six-point lead at the top of the table over their nearest challengers, Monaco.

There are obvious flaws in PSG's line-up - the most obvious being the lack of a goalscoring centre-forward - but against more mundane Ligue 1 outfits, this barely matters.

PSG are W10-D2-L0 from their 12 Ligue 1 games so far, dropping points only against top-half opposition Nice (currently fifth) and Reims (eighth). At home, they have a 100 per cent (W6-D0-L0), with a fantastic average goals-per-game supremacy of 2.67 across those six matches.

Nothing in Nantes' make-up suggests the visitors can stop the hosts running out comfortable winners this weekend. Currently sitting 16th out of 18 teams in the table, Nantes are W2-D4-L6 for the season, and their form is poor - winless in nine (W0-D3-L6), they've lost their last four in a row.

As you'd expect, PSG are extremely short odds to win - 1.23 - so we prefer backing them on the Asian Handicap. The hosts are available at a price of 1.85 with a -1.5 & -2.0 start, which is well worth taking.

With our selection, you'll make a profit as long as PSG win by two or more goals. The stats are strongly in your favour: five of PSG's six home wins so far this season have been by a margin of two or more goals. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.

Marseille vs Monaco - Sun, 19:45

The only two sides that look capable of challenging PSG for the Ligue 1 title go head-to-head on Sunday night in what looks set to be a thrilling encounter.

Marseille vs Monaco is a rivalry dating back to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Arsene Wenger was Monaco manager and Bernard Tapie the all-powerful yet controversial owner of Marseille.

There are reasons for both sides to be confident this weekend, yet also equally valid reasons why both sides might slip-up.

For Marseille, the major plus point was their second-half performance at Lens last weekend. After a goalless first-half, they dominated after the interval, running out deserving 3-1 winners. It was arguably the best 45 minutes of football they've produced under manager Roberto De Zerbi this season.

The negative is their home form: Marseille have frequently struggled in front of their own fans this season, which explains their dismal W1-D2-L2 record at Stade Velodrome. It's the second-worst home record in the division, and the main reason to avoid Marseille this weekend.

Monaco's big positive is their away form - they're W4-D0-L1 on the road - plus the fact they've got so many players that have performed well in the final third. France U21 international Maghnes Akliouche is especially worth watching: the attacking midfielder has been excellent this season, to the point he's now on France manager Didier Deschamps' radar as a potential full international in the not-too-distant future.

The negative for Monaco is that they lost 3-2 at home to Benfica in the Champions League in midweek, and have lost two of their last four Ligue 1 games as well. So their form is far from ideal.

Taking all factors into account, this is one of those games where the frequently-overlooked draw is the smart selection. And yet it's a big outsider of three in the Match Odds market: Marseille are 2.68 to win, Monaco are also 2.68, while the Draw is 3.85.

We see the draw the most likely outcome in a game with so little to pick between the rivals. So back the stalemate: the big odds are well worth taking.

Recommended bets

Back PSG -1.5 & -2.0 Asian Handicap vs Nantes @ 1.85Back Marseille vs Monaco Draw @ 3.85

James' 2024-25 P/L

Staked: 28ptsReturned: 28.43ptsP/L: +0.43pts