Luton Town v Leeds United: Are Leeds really falling apart again? | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Ryan Deeney previews Luton Town v Leeds United

Ryan Deeney takes a look ahead to the early EFL Championship kick-off as Luton Town and Leeds United do battle at Kenilworth Road...

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Luton Town v Leeds UnitedSaturday 5th April, 12:30Live on Sky Sports

Second or second bottom?

The early Championship clash this Saturday sees second travel to second bottom in a game that has huge implications at both ends of the table.

Luton Town are the strugglers but they had a positive March, picking up 10 points from five matches to give themselves real hope of avoiding back-to-back relegations.

Leeds United are the promotion contenders but a run of one win in five has left them fearing consecutive third place finishes despite uber-impressive points totals.

Despite the Sky Sports + model providing plenty of content, it's hard not to think all eyes will be on a game both sides will be desperate to win.

Magic March for Hatters

Matt Bloomfield made a brave call swapping League One promotion chasing Wycombe Wanderers for Luton Town, knowing the clubs could swap places come the end of the season.

He's found life tough too, collecting just 13 points from 13 games, leaving them as the second worst performing side in the division since his arrival. Yet with improved recent form and the returns of Reece Burke, Amari'i Bell and Tahith Chong, they will feel they have more than a chance to stay up.

The concern ahead of this one is that ten of Luton's last 11 points have been collected against sides currently sat 17th, 21st, 22nd and 24th. They have played 7 of their current top 13 under Bloomfield and conceded 1.3xG in six of those, including 1.8xG and 2.7xG against Leeds' title contenders Sheffield United and Burnley.

Their record in front of goal is miserable. They have registered just eight goals under new management and netted just once in those 7 games against the better sides.

A change in nets... finally

There have been a number of concerns raised about Leeds United, so it's easy to forget that they are 2nd in the league table with the best xG, best xGA, having scored comfortably the most goals in the division and averaging 2.08 points per game.

Even their away form isn't as bad as you would think. They remain top of the xG and xGA charts and have collected 32 points from 19 matches. One too many draws, perhaps.

Their form in March has raised questions, particularly on the back of those huge wins against Sunderland and Sheffield United. However, the numbers have hardly changed, Leeds creating around double the amount of chances they are conceding. They have conceded 1xG or more in just 2 of their last 13 matches.

The big news ahead of this game is that Daniel Farke is changing his goalkeeper, finally taking Ilian Meslier out of the firing line following a penalty save, an error and questionable goalkeeping for the second equaliser. The experienced Karl Darlow will take his place.

That should be a big boost to fans and players mentality and the decision being announced early should help set heads straight. The process is absolutely fine and they should get the better of what is likely to be a lower scoring game.

Back Leeds United to win and under 3.5 goals @ 5/4

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