Manchester United v Everton: A 12/5 home win fancied with both teams netting | OneFootball

Manchester United v EvertonMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Barmy season offers hope for United

If we thought the Premier League season that followed the Covid pandemic was a strange one then how do we explain this current Premier League season? To put it bluntly, we can't!

Reigning champions Liverpool have lost 50% of their 12 games played and are in the bottom half of the table. Manchester City have already lost four games yet remain in the top three, and just above them are Chelsea who have lost three league games already. Tottenham can't win at home, Newcastle can't win away, Aston Villa couldn't score for toffee but now seemingly can't lose, and newly-promoted Sunderland - favourites for the drop at the start of the season - have been in and around the top four since kick-off!

It's been a very unpredictable season so far to say the least, but what all that means is that there's a great opportunity for an inconsistent Manchester United team to actually achieve something this campaign.

And no doubt success for United would be to finish in the top four and qualify for next season's Champions League. Beat Everton on Monday night and Ruben Amorim's men could move into the top four, one point and one place behind fierce rivals Manchester City.

And perhaps I'm doing United a bit of a disservice by calling them inconsistent given that the are currently on an unbeaten run of five games in the Premier League, and that they've scored at least two goals in all five of those matches. However, failure to beat the likes of Fulham, Brentford and Nottingham Forest add strength to my inconsistent claim, as too does the fact that they've kept just once clean sheet all season.

Toffees given a huge incentive to claim the points

As for Everton, I'm sorry to say that they're a team that I just can't get excited about, and perhaps they are the prime example of an inconsistent team. David Moyes' men have won four, drawn three and lost four of their 11 Premier League games this term, but the key difference between the Toffees and United is that Everton tend to win when you expect them to win and that they often lose when fancied to do so.

Their last six games read won two, drawn two, lost two and they currently sit 13th in the Premier League table, but a win at Old Trafford on Monday night won't just come with three points, it will come with the fact that they will move above Merseyside rivals Liverpool. What an incentive that is!

Home win fancied with both teams netting

In the Match Odds market United are the 3/4 favourites to win the game, and that's perfectly understandable given their home form this season. Since a narrow - and somewhat unfortunate - defeat to Arsenal on the opening weekend of the season Amorim's men have won all four games at Old Trafford, scoring at least two goals each time and 11 in total.

The concern is that United rarely keep a clean sheet. They've managed just one all season in a 2-0 win over Sunderland, and in their three most recent games they conceded exactly two goals against each of Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham.

That poor defensive record gives Everton a chance here, and if you fancy them to take all three points then 18/5 is the price on offer (the Draw can be backed at 29/10).  See chart below for the Betfair Exchange percentage chance of winning.

But the obvious concern with siding with the Toffees is that they're yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season. In six away games they've conceded twice at rock bottom Wolves on two occasions (league and EFL Cup) as well as conceding at newly-promoted Leeds and Sunderland.

It's no surprise then that the Yes option in the Both Teams to Score market is odds-on at 4/6, though given the excellent run United are on at Old Trafford - both in terms of winning games and scoring goals - added to their poor clean sheet record, then a home win with both teams scoring screams out to me at 12/5, and is my best bet of the game.

Betfair Oddsboost offers plenty of appeal

It's not often that you see an oddsboost that jumps off the page, even at a short price. But I had to look twice when I saw that the Betfair Sportsbook have boosted the price of Bryan Mbuemo and Matheus Cunha to have at least one shot on target to 1/1 from 4/6.

I think that's as good as an even money shot you'll see all game. Of course, it doesn't mean that it will land, but it's an extremely generous price.

Mbuemo has recorded at least one shot on target in his last five appearance for United, and has eight in total to his name in those five games, while since returning from injury Cunha has three shots on target to his name in three appearances. And with Banjamin Sesko out injured we know that United's two star signings are going to be playing in attack.

In addition, United went into Matchday 12 in the Premier League in the top five for expected goals (xG) and shots per game, so against an Everton team that can't keep a clean sheet on the road, I really do fancy both Mbuemo and Cunha to have at least one shot on target each.