Missed the obvious? Portugal's triumph was never in doubt | OneFootball

Portugal was not at the top of any expert list ahead of the 2025 Nations League semifinals. The focus was on Germany, the home advantage, and Nagelsmann's ambitious playing idea. But those who took a closer look – and read the numbers – could have recognized a different story.

Portugal's Offense Machine

Portugal scored an impressive 20 goals in nine Nations League games – an average of over two goals per game. The offense presented itself as variable, purposeful, and efficient. Cristiano Ronaldo, the top scorer of the Nations League with six goals, was not alone: supported by creative players like Bernardo Silva, João Félix, and Bruno Fernandes, the Portuguese attack game worked like a well-rehearsed system – not like a gamble.

The Underestimated Stability of the Defense

The defense also delivered reliably. Only nine goals conceded in the entire tournament testify to compactness, coordination, and clever space defense. Especially against an offensively strong team like Germany, it became clear: Portugal's defense allows little – and if so, Diogo Costa is on hand.

Control through Precision

A pass rate of almost 90 percent speaks a clear language: Portugal was hardly thrown off track in the last games. The ball security in midfield was particularly striking – especially through the later substituted Vitinha, who, as a calm architect, directed the game and minimized errors. Germany could never permanently disturb this center.

Game Control instead of Reactivity

Portugal acted with self-confidence and joy of playing. In a tournament often characterized by cautious tactics, the average ball possession of 57 percent was a statement: one wanted and could dictate the game. Even against Germany, Portugal took command piece by piece after the German lead.

Portugal's Ball Recovery Machine

Despite their game control, Portugal remained aggressive in ball recovery. 328 balls won during the tournament testify to a well-functioning pressing – both up front and in midfield. This pressure came into play, especially in the second half against Germany.

Old Star in Goal Mood

Cristiano Ronaldo, at 40 years old, is unstoppable. Seven goals in the tournament, including the 1-2 against Germany – and that with less playing time than many competitors. Behind Viktor Gyökeres, Ronaldo is second in the top scorer list. For the Portuguese record man, it was the first international victory against Germany.

Those who only look at the result might think that Portugal surprisingly threw Germany out of the tournament. But the numbers tell a different story.

Did you expect a Portugal win? Write your opinion in the comments.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.

📸 Lars Baron - 2025 Getty Images