Newcastle United and PSR – Why Alexander Isak ‘exploring options’ was badly timed for him | OneFootball

My first article in two years for The Mag was rather unfortunately timed, there I was looking at what Newcastle United needed to do to manage a good squad and perform in the Champions League, only for simultaneously Alexander Isak to be reportedly ‘exploring options’ elsewhere!

Hopefully no similar bombshell can accompany this latest piece.

Since the £250m economics of buying and using Isak over the next five years has been explained by others (I’d written initially about that just to be usurped by The Athletic no less!), I’ll just get into the implications of the same.

I describe 14 football clubs as “Euro Super League” – the PL 6, the Spanish (Madrid 1/2, Barca) and Italian (Milan 1/2, Juve) triumvirates and twin farmers Bayern + PSG.

This distinction is based on money and how they’ve used it in the past and maintained a hegemony over everyone else.

Ironically, these 14 (and Dortmund) were invited to form the European Super League which the twin farmers declined.

It’s clear that no club outside of these could afford this quarter billion deal and in fact half within it can’t either:

Spurs/Atletico (not enough money), the Italian mob (all 3 undergoing mini financial crises of their own), Barca (struggle to register new players every summer for 5 years and using new (fake?) economic levers annually to do so) leaving the following 8:

1) Man City – with Haaland and his recent 10 year deal – no chance (plus the overhang of the 115 charges)

2) Man Utd – not in Europe much less UCL and in decline (park this one for a fantasy/laugh towards the end of the article though)

3) Chelsea – already bought 2 strikers to go with the many at the club but still a remote possibility

4) Arsenal – bought Gyokeres and can’t afford another mega-deal this summer having spent over £200m. Plus when Isak said in March that some of the rumours surrounding him were “laughable”, he was only being linked with the Gunners and Liverpool and he didn’t use the term for the then about to be crowned PL champs.

5) Liverpool – most likely destination in PL but already bought Ekitike and struggling to fit him + Wirtz + Szoboszlai+ others into the same line up alongside Salah, as well as having already spent £269m this summer. Plus he’d go there and not be top dog and even cede penalties to Salah. There’s a reason they haven’t put anything more than a derisory bid in, trying to use the media to get Isak to want out and lower the price.

6) Real Madrid – Alonso would surely love to have him lead the line the way he sets up his team, however he has a superstar he’d want to be rid of in Mbappe playing as a striker (to fit him and Vinicius Jr in the same line up) but can’t. As long as he’s there, there’s no chance of/point in Isak going there.

7 and 8) PSG and Bayern could both afford him (especially if Bayern sold Kane) however, Isak won’t want to play in either Bundesliga/Ligue 1 on a weekly basis so won’t go there.

Had Alexander Isak made this decision end of last season or even before Liverpool made the Ekitike move, or Arsenal the Gyokeres move (or Chelsea their #27469 moves), there was a chance of a deal happening. Or if he’d waited a season, taken a new deal with Newcastle, maybe put a contract buyout clause and leave next summer when Super League clubs could prepare and make space – both in their budgets and squads, he could have made a smooth transition.

Most likely his agent got overwhelmed with Liverpool’s PR media splash and wore Alexander Isak down about looking for greener pastures right away, without waiting for Newcastle’s new contract offer.

But for someone who shows such intellect and presence of mind on the pitch, Isak didn’t do the analysis above for himself, realising he was mostly out of options he wished to explore as of now but they could open up next summer when he could leave AND maintaining a good relation with everyone at NUFC. He’d also get a season in the iconic no. 9 jersey, try for the club’s season goal-scoring records, continue in the Champions League and then bid farewell.

What all the clubs constantly trying to unsettle Newcastle don’t realise is that Eddie Howe’s built a squad challenging at the top of the table on a relatively small budget. Imagine what he could manage if he had an additional £360m or so in his PSR approved transfer kitty? How did we arrive at this amount?

Isak arrived at NUFC for £59m + £4m in add-ons (incl apps/goals/UCL qualifying/title wins etc) on a 6 year deal. For ease of calculation I’ll assume this is £60m. All deals completed prior to PSR rule change mandating a 5 year limit would be calculated for PSR as per actual time period. Thus Isak’s annual amortisation was £60m/6 years = £10m. This summer, after 3 years at the club his residual PSR value was ~£30m. Thus conservatively a £150m sale (he’s realistically worth over £200m when you consider Haaland’s contract clause is £250m activated after 4-5 years and Isak’s a more complete all-round striker) gives a £120m PSR profit (£150m – £30m residual buying price that has to be recognized immediately in full). This £120m sits on the profit side of the equation for 3 years under current PSR rules (rules may change next summer) thus allowing us £360m of net potential acquisitions over the next 6 transfer windows (though the additional spend over revenue would need to be balanced in future years income once the £120m profit drops off PSR but the club should’ve raised other commercial revenue by then). Even conservatively looking at the future, the club could still spend £200-250m just due to an Isak sale, in addition to the £130-150m budget already available (on player trading + increase in wages).

Now what COULD Howe do with a £300m budget? Maybe £105m or so would immediately go on another striker + Wissa (their combined wages would also balance outgoing Wilson + Isak’s 90k+140k = 230k/wk). Whilst £50m should immediately go towards Scalvini (ED: This article was written and received before Malick Thiaw deal announced). Seeing both Botman and Schar struggle with potential injury after only coming on in the 2nd half in Singapore set the alarm bells honking loud and clear. Another £50m needs to go on Longstaff’s replacement + Hall’s backup (Alex Murphy may still need time and he won’t take up a squad space; discounting £5m or so from Targett’s sale). When you see this immediate need for a £200m+ spend (plus agent fees + potential overall wage increases + £55m already spent on Elanga) you realise why the club has spent time trying to get the right prices for players (which many fans are calling ‘penny pinching’, worried about the players missed out on and the time lost). It also makes you realise that while losing Alexander Isak would hurt badly (even now, I don’t want to see a future without him) as would seeing him in a Liverpool shirt, the right amount of money coming in for his sale should help the club become stronger.

The £100m+ PSR spend left over would be needed at some point in 2026 for replacing Lascelles and Trippier when their contracts end or they leave with 6 months left. Because both are part of homegrown 9/25 needed, we’d need to bring in (potentially higher cost) British replacement for at least 1 if not both (if Targett also leaves as is likely, that really puts us on the edge, Willock leaving would put us on 8/25) which are likely to be costlier than foreign recruits (and preferred by Howe).

Some of that cash would also go into new contracts for the likes of Tonali/Botman (if he keeps fit) etc. Thus even after selling Alexander Isak we’d be utilising every penny we’d have (barring a run deep into the knock-outs of UCL bringing in lots of extra cash). That should inform the section of fans asking the club to pay whatever’s demanded to get our targets over the line, as to why one needs to get every transfer right when you’re not in the ‘Super League’ set of clubs and being hunted for the most minor transgression on rules.

Finally, what would an Alexander Isak transfer do potentially to the finances of Liverpool, who have already spent £269m on outgoing transfers and their wage bill (already north of £400m last year) has gone up substantially with the new deals for Salah and Van Dijk. A £160-170m outlay on Isak transfer + £90m on his 5 year contract would push both numbers to the point where anything far below a League and UCL double would start putting PSR pressure on them (not that they’d be charged by the PL).

As importantly for us, they’d almost surely leave buying a new CB to next season at least, leaving us as Guehi’s no.1 option and Palace likely to accept far lower than the supposed £40m they wish for a defender with 11 months left on his contract. Not that I prefer him over Diomande/Antonio Silva/Zabarnyi/many others but if Howe wants him…

Its quite the situation that Liverpool’s media circus plan to unsettle Isak has gone on for eight months now since Dec’24 (with regularly increasing intensity) but they’re yet to put in anything but a derisory £110m bid for him. In fact no club has put in a viable offer, even after knowing the most all-round complete striker in the world wants to leave.