Nottingham Forest’s survival maths, points target and run-in assessed | OneFootball

Forest twice came from behind at the Etihad, staying above the drop zone on goal difference.

City led 2-1 in midweek, then West Ham went ahead at Fulham, briefly dropping Forest into the bottom three. Elliot Anderson levelled after Morgan Gibbs-White had struck, and Murillo’s late goalline clearance could prove vital. Nottingham Post notes West Ham’s win left the teams level on points, Forest ahead on goal difference, minus 15 to minus 19.

Tottenham’s 3-1 home defeat by Crystal Palace deepened their problems. Spurs are one point above West Ham and Forest, with Leeds two further clear.

Vitor Pereira says his focus is solely on improving Forest, helping players tactically and mentally, and studying opponents only when needed. He has not set a public points target.

Forty points is often cited as safety, though the bar is usually lower. Forest have 28, and in four of the last five seasons 38 would have sufficed. They previously stayed up with 32 despite a four-point deduction.

Model projections put relegation odds at 26.88 per cent and predict 17th, with West Ham 49.53 per cent and Spurs 16.10.

Pereira is still seeking his first Premier League win with Forest, and is 17 without a league victory. A free weekend offers recovery time.

Midtjylland visit on Thursday in the Europa League last 16, a selection dilemma before Fulham at home then Spurs away, with a final-day Bournemouth visit best not to rely on.

Source: Nottingham Post