Opta Predicts Liverpool v Atletico Madrid: Back Wirtz to fire Reds to win in 7/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Football... Only Bettor. Champions League 2025-26 Preview

Liverpool v Atletico MadridWednesday 17 September, 20:00Live on TNT

Liverpool may not have been at their devastating best so far this season, but after a series of late interventions, they are sitting pretty with four wins from four Premier League games.

Mohamed Salah's last-gasp penalty helped them overcome Burnley on Sunday, following dramatic victories over Bournemouth, Newcastle United and Arsenal.

But Arne Slot's Reds must now grapple with competing on multiple fronts, as their UEFA Champions League campaign begins against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday.

Liverpool topped the league phase in 2025/26 and looked to be among the favourites, only to lose to eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain on penalties in the last 16.

Atletico also suffered shoot-out heartache at the same stage, losing to rivals Real Madrid in controversial fashion after Julián Alvarez's spot-kick was disallowed for a double touch.

But who will make a positive start to their latest European campaign? Using Opta insights, we have picked out the best Bet Builder selections ahead of the game.

Liverpool primed for strong start in Champions League

Liverpool are joint-favourites to lift the trophy this season, priced at 11/2 alongside Barcelona.

The Reds are also the most likely champions according to the Opta supercomputer, going all the way in 20% of scenarios and topping the 36-team league stage in 21%.

Liverpool started brilliantly in this competition last term and a kind draw should work in their favour this time around too.

Slot's side won their first seven games in 2024/25 and only dropped points when the head coach shuffled his pack in a 3-2 defeat at PSV on matchday eight.

Those prices are largely in line with the supercomputer's match predictions, 57.9% of which went Liverpool's way, with Atleti victorious in 20.8%.

Atleti initially seemed to have Liverpool's number in the Champions League, going unbeaten in the teams' first four meetings in the competition between 2008 and 2020 (two wins, two losses), including a memorable extra-time win at Anfield in the last 16 in March 2020.

However, Diego Simeone's side have only won one of eight matches against English teams in the competition since that triumph (two draws, five defeats), a 1-0 victory at Manchester United in March 2022.

Liverpool beat Atleti twice when the sides faced off in the group stage of the 2021/22 tournament, 2-0 at Anfield and 3-2 in Madrid.

And given the teams' respective starts to 2025/26, it is difficult to look past another Liverpool victory here. While the Reds are perfect after four Premier League matches, Atleti needed four attempts to get their first LaLiga win, beating Villarreal 2-0 via goals from Pablo Barrios and new signing Nicolás González.

Liverpool have only lost three of their last 18 Champions League home games (13 wins, two draws), with those defeats all coming against teams who have reached the final within the last two seasons (Inter, Real Madrid and PSG).

In last season's league stage, they won their four matches at Anfield by an aggregate score of 10-1.

Simeone also has a pair of injury concerns ahead of the game, with key forward Alvarez and defender David Hancko sustaining knocks against Villarreal.

Amid Isak questions, back Wirtz to come good

Liverpool's summer spending spree has left them with an array of attacking options that would be the envy of any team, adding intrigue to the goalscorer markets ahead of their games.

British record signing Alexander Isak was left out of the matchday squad for Liverpool's win at Turf Moor, a game that saw them fire off 26 shots without success before Salah tucked home from the penalty spot in the 95th minute.

After that game, Slot suggested Isak - who did not have any involvement in Newcastle United's pre-season - could be ready for 45 minutes either against Atletico, or in Saturday's Merseyside derby versus Everton.

Isak, who plundered 62 goals in 109 appearances for Newcastle, is 1/1 to score anytime and 7/2 to net first. He leads both markets alongside Salah, who is also 1/1 to get on the scoresheet and 7/2 to make the breakthrough.

But with the Swede's minutes being managed, it would be understandable if punters are hesitant to get behind him. In the shots market, Isak is odds-on to have four or more attempts at 8/11, which appears short given his involvement could be limited.

Fellow new signing Hugo Ekitike already has three goals to his name in all competitions. The French youngster is 5/4 to net anytime and 4/1 to open the scoring. However, the uncertainty over Liverpool's starting striker may be enough to warrant caution when assessing his prospects, too.

With those doubts in mind, Salah is an attractive option. The Egyptian has been quiet, by his standards, this season, yet he has two goals and an assist in four Premier League outings.

Salah has more goals (44) and more assists (17) than any other Liverpool player in their Champions League history. His next Champions League appearance will also see him surpass Steven Gerrard's 73 games for the Reds in the competition, leaving only Jamie Carragher (80) with more for the club.

Salah remains Liverpool's most reliable contributor even after their hefty transfer outlay, and he can be backed to score or assist at 4/7.

But the Reds boast other goal threats with more attractive prices than the one attached to Salah. No Liverpool player can match the 13 shots attempted by Cody Gakpo so far this season, with nine of those coming from inside the area and one resulting in a goal.

Gakpo is an enticing 2/1 to get on the scoresheet and 13/10 to register a goal or an assist. He is the only Liverpool player to tee up multiple goals this season (two), while his eight chances created are second only to Florian Wirtz, which brings us to the Germany international.

Wirtz has made a somewhat slow start to his Liverpool career, failing to record a goal involvement since assisting Ekitike against Crystal Palace in the Community Shield.

But might a change of competition allow Wirtz to get up and running? His six goals in last season's Champions League for former club Bayer Leverkusen were the most of any midfielder.

Since the start of 2023/24, Wirtz's 34 goals in all competitions are bettered by just three midfielders from Europe's top five leagues - Phil Foden (41), Jude Bellingham (38) and Bruno Fernandes (35).

Wirtz averaged 0.71 goals per 90 minutes in the 2024/25 tournament, a tally only bettered by nine players who logged at least 700 minutes. He is 11/4 for a goal on Wednesday, a price that could add value to any Bet Builder.

For punters who would prefer a more cautious approach, a goal or an assist for Wirtz is priced at 1/1, and only Dominik Szoboszlai (34) has more attacking sequence involvements for Liverpool this season than his 31.

Griezmann to carry visitors' hopes

While Simeone will have been relieved to see Atleti end their longest winless start to a LaLiga season under his management, Alvarez's half-time withdrawal versus Villarreal was a major concern, after the Argentine hurt his knee, and Atleti have confirmed that he won't play at Anfield.

The former Manchester City man has only scored once this season, but his 16 shots in seven games since the start of the Club World Cup are the most of any Atleti player.

Alexander Sørloth is second on that list with 14 in seven outings, and the Norwegian is 3/10 to maintain his average by trying his luck at least twice, or 1/1 to do so three times.

Sørloth is 11/4 to score any time. Carlos Martin is 3/1, ahead of Giacomo Raspadori at 7/2.

Also at 7/2 is Antoine Griezmann, who has so often been Atleti's talisman in Europe.

Griezmann has either scored or assisted 26% of Atleti's goals in their Champions League history (51/197). Among all teams to have scored 100 goals or more in the competition, that is the highest share for any player, even putting him ahead of Lionel Messi with Barcelona (25%, 155/612).

Griezmann has only started two of Atleti's seven games since the start of the Club World Cup, being limited to 310 minutes. However, the 34-year-old has registered 11 shots in that time, with four of those hitting the target (one every 77 minutes).

He scored 16 goals and supplied nine assists in all competitions last season, and his big-game experience and valuable work out-of-possession make him a likely candidate to either start or play a significant role from the substitutes' bench.

With all of that in mind, a price of 1/1 for Griezmann to register a single shot on target is enticing, particularly as it remains attainable even if the Frenchman plays a cameo role. He is 8/11 to attempt two shots and 23/10 to go for goal three times.

Both Griezmann and Sørloth could also be of interest in Betfair's Match Ups betting, where they can be backed to outshoot another player. Griezmann, for instance, is 7/5 to have more shots on target than Atleti captain Koke. Match Up multis are also available, allowing punters to combine several head-to-head player bets.

While Atleti are outsiders to win the match, they should be expected to test Liverpool, who have not looked rock-solid at the back lately.

Excluding the win over Burnley, who only attempted three shots, Liverpool have faced at least 10 attempts in each of their other four matches this season, including the Community Shield.

Palace managed four efforts on target at Wembley, while Bournemouth and Newcastle both had three. Atleti are 10/11 to hit the target four or more times, and it is 6/5 for Liverpool's goalkeeper to make at least three saves.

Alisson averaged 3.79 saves per 90 minutes in the Champions League last season, his second-most in a single campaign after 2017/18 (3.83), and he has not received perfect protection so far this season.

Atleti have found the back of the net in their opening four league matches, with three of those containing goals at both ends. It is 4/6 for both teams to score at Anfield, with over 2.5 goals marginally shorter at 6/10.

Feisty affair possible at Anfield

Atleti are not afraid to dabble in the dark arts, even if Simeone is attempting to evolve their style. With Liverpool expected to spend long periods on top, there is every chance the visitors will attempt to break up the game.

Atleti averaged 10.2 fouls per Champions League game last season, and they are 8/15 to go slightly further and commit 11, with 12 or more Atleti fouls available at 5/6 - they reached that figure against Villarreal.

Interestingly, Liverpool averaged slightly more fouls per game in the Champions League last season, at 10.7. Therefore, a price of 5/6 for them to commit 11 could prove attractive.

Italian referee Maurizio Mariani will officiate this game, and he awarded 23 fouls in his lone Serie A match this season, as well as averaging 25.9 in 2024/25. If he oversees a niggly affair, a price of 7/10 for over 3.5 cards to be shown could also come into play.

In terms of individuals most likely to fall foul of the officials, Marcos Llorente stands out. The 30-year-old has committed seven fouls in four league matches this term, the joint-most of any Atleti player alongside Sørloth.

Llorente is 6/5 to commit at least two fouls, with Sørloth 1/1 to do so. Another factor worthy of consideration is that Llorente will likely start at right-back, potentially going head-to-head with Gakpo.

Gakpo is Liverpool's most fouled player this season, winning, on average, 2.2 fouls per game. A price of 13/8 for him to be fouled three times could offer value. Even if Gakpo were not to start, Federico Chiesa, another tricky customer, would be the likely replacement.

Going back to Llorente, he is 7/2 to be shown a card. Liverpool fans will not need reminding that it was his brace that dumped them out of the Champions League in 2020 - the former Real Madrid man is 3/1 to either score or be carded.