Pep Guardiola rates Man City's chances of beating Real Madrid in Champions League showdown | OneFootball

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola claimed that his side have just a "1%" chance of advancing to the Champions League round of 16 ahead of the second leg of their play-off with Real Madrid on Wednesday night.

It could all have been so different. The reigning Premier League champions boasted a 2-1 lead over Madrid with less than ten minutes of the first leg remaining at the Etihad Stadium last Tuesday before two late goals dramatically swung the context of the entire tie.

Trailing 3-2 on aggregate ahead of this week's decisive match in the Spanish capital, City have to either defeat Madrid by two clear goals in normal time or win by a single-goal margin and prevail in the subsequent penalty shootout. Guardiola was not overly optimistic.

"The margin to win in [the] Bernabeu in that position, everybody knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to go through, I don't know, we arrive at 1%, it will be minimal," the City boss sighed before adding: "But as [long] as you have a chance, we will try, that's for sure."

Pep Guardiola (right) will pit his wits against Carlo Ancelotti once again on Wednesday / Crystal Pix/MB Media/GettyImages

City romped to a 4-0 victory over Newcastle United on Saturday, hinting at a belated return to form, but Guardiola was at pains to stress how poor his side have been compared to their lofty standards. "This season, the reality, we have been miles, miles away," the Catalan coach admitted.

"We have been really, really poor in performance [and] in the results this season, and just for one game, that today, played really good, and it's not going to change the opinion, the reality, the team, it is right now, and we are still not good in terms of day by day."

Madrid have not been entirely impressive themselves. The Spanish giants were held to a 1-1 draw by Osasuna on the weekend and have been beaten seven times across all competitions this season - more than triple their tally of losses throughout the entire 2023/24 campaign.

City's chances of success in Spain will be heavily impacted by the availability of Erling Haaland, who scored twice for the English champions in their defeat to Madrid last week. The talismanic forward limped off against Newcastle with a worrying knee injury but Guardiola was quick to play down concerns about any prolonged absence.