Premier League Opta Stats Betting: Back 9/2 Ndiaye tip and why can Liverpool help 3/1 Emirates punt? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nicolas Jackson is averaging 0.8 xG/90, just behind Erling Haaland's 0.81

Last week, we unearthed a beauty of a recommended bet at 8/1 as Youri Tielemans assisted once again at a big price. The stats pointed us there, and we now have 10 more Premier League tips this weekend...

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Leicester City v Nottingham Forest

Buonanotte showing his Brighton class

The Opta Stat:

"Facundo Buonanotte has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League appearances for Leicester (3 goals, 2 assists). The 19-year-old could become just the 10th teenager to score or assist in four appearances in a row and be the first since Evan Ferguson for Brighton in January 2023."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Facundo Buonanotte to score or assist @ 23/10

Aston Villa v Bournemouth

Can the Cherries shots trend continue?

The Opta Stat:

"Only Manchester City (157) and Tottenham (145) have had more shots in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth (130). Their current average of 16.3 shots per game is their highest ratio in a single top-flight campaign."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bournemouth to have 16 or more shots @ 12/5

Brentford v Ipswich Town

Is there a new Brentford assist king?

The Opta Stat:

"Brentford's Mikkel Damsgaard has assisted three goals in his last two Premier League appearances, more than he had in his first 55 games in the competition (two). He has assisted via a corner in his last two games, with only Ashley Williams for Everton in April 2017 assisting a goal from a corner situation in three consecutive appearances in Premier League history."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mikkel Damsgaard to assist anytime @ 100/30

Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Are Brighton a Lay chance?

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton and Hove Albion have won just 12 of their 45 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the relegation zone (27%). Among teams to play in more than five seasons, only West Brom (26%, won 20/78) have a lower win percentage than the Seagulls. Indeed, they've also failed to beat both Nottingham Forest (1-1) and Ipswch (0-0) in home games so far this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Lay Brighton on the Betfair Exchange @ 1.65

Manchester City v Southampton

Haaland to bully Southampton back-line

The Opta Stat:

"Among players to play 500+ minutes against newly promoted teams, only Gianluca Vialli (one every 56 minutes) has a better minutes per goal ratio than Man City's Erling Haaland (one every 60 mins, 13 goals in 780 minutes). He is looking to become the first player to score in seven starts in a row against promoted teams since Sergio Agüero in November 2017."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Erling Haaland to score a hat-trick @ 13/2

Everton v Fulham

Ndiaye wll always love you

The Opta Stat:

"Iliman Ndiaye has won one or more fouls in each of his last nine appearances in all competitions since his very first start for hs new club (12 in total). He was won 2 or more in three of his last six and in two of his last three. Indeed, he's also managed three shots on target in his last four games, including two and a goal last time out v Ipswich."

The Betfair Bet:

Chelsea v Newcastle United

Maresca is getting a tune out of Jackson

The Opta Stat:

"Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson has been involved in 13 goals in his last 13 Premier League appearances (9 goals, 4 assists). He also netted the opener in a 3-2 win over Newcastle back in March. Indeed, he has scored four goals in his last six games for club and country, with his Premier League xG per 90 of 0.8 the fifth best in the league, and only 0.1 behind Erling Haaland. Newcastle, meanwhile have lost five of their last seven games in the capital (W2)."

The Betfair Bet:

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs could turn on the style v Palace

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham are second only to Manchester City for shots (145), shots on target (55), touches in the opposition box (355) and successful opposition half passes (2,069) in the Premier League this season. However, Spurs rank top for passes played into the opponent penalty area (306) and expected goals (16.95). "

The Betfair Bet:

Back Dominic Solanke and Heung-Min Son to have 2 or more shots on target @ 7/1

West Ham United v Manchester United

Man Utd's most backable fixture

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of 2024 (excluding promoted/relegated sides), no team have kept fewer clean sheets than West Ham in the Premier League (2 - level with Wolves). Indeed, their only league clean sheet at the London Stadium this year came in their very first one of 2024 (0-0 v Brighton on January 2nd). "

The Betfair Bet:

Back Man Utd to beat West Ham @ 13/10

Arsenal v Liverpool

Will Saliba news cause Arsenal to shut up shop?

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the Premier League this season (3), while they also have the lowest xG against total (6.2). Their three goals conceded are their joint-fewest after eight games of a league campaign in club history (also three in 1978-79 and 2018-19)."

The Betfair Bet:

Opta Stats P/L 2024-25 -

(Recommended bet(s) of the week)

Stake: 13ptsReturn: 50.0P/L: +37.0ROI: +285%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 78ptsReturn: 124.41P/L: +46.41ROI: +59.5%

Now read more of today's best tips and previews here!

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