Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back a midfield card battle at 14/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 12...

Burnley v Chelsea Tip - Back a comfortable away win

Burnley v ChelseaSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

What better way straight after an International break to face the worst team in the league based on attacking and defensive output? That's the proposition for Chelsea on Saturday lunchtime. In this season's Premier League, Burnley have had the fewest amount of shots (8.2 per-game), resulting in the lowest expected goals (8.3), which is no surprise when they're having the fewest amount of the ball (38.6% possession). Defensively they've faced the most shots (17.5 per-game), which in-turn has seen them conceding the most expected goals (24.0).

Chelsea on the other hand have conceded the third fewest shots (9.5 per-game), resulting in the fifth best xG against record (13.67). With Burnley posing the least offensive threat going forward whilst giving up plenty at the back, it's what method to back Chelsea to win. We can get 23/20 on Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 goals and that seems a really nice odds-against bet. With plenty away on the International duty, I don't envisage Chelsea being at their fluid best but still more than enough to get the job done. Indeed the Blues have won their last seven 12:30 Premier League games on a Saturday.

Bournemouth v West Ham Tip - Back goals on the south coast

Bournemouth v West HamSaturday, 15:00

After a strong start to the season, Bournemouth's recent form has tailed off with back-to-back away defeats with a 3-1 loss at Man City, followed by a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa. One trend that continues for the Cherries though is the amount of high scoring games their involved in with five of their most six games seeing Over 2.5 goals winners. Further back, it's 15 of their last 25 games versus Premier League opposition that have seen three or more goals. For West Ham, new boss Nuno Espirito Santo has put back-to-back wins together scoring three goals in both, so confidence should be high. He's now been in charge for six games and with the last three seeing Over 2.5 goals winners, more action should be on the cards.

Brighton v Brentford Tip - More goals in Brighton games

Brighton v BrentfordSaturday, 15:00

Regular readers will no my love-in with Brighton and backing goals and see no reason not to continue again here particularly against in-form Brentford. Seven of their last nine have seen Over 2.5 goals winners but looking longer-term it's 20 of their last 26 Premier League games that seen three or more goals land (77%). They've scored 17 goals already (just six fewer than top scorers Man City), whilst defence has been an issue under Fabian Hürzeler with only three clean sheets in their last 23 games.

For Brentford, Keith Andrews looks to be making his mark with four wins in his last six. This has propelled them up to twelfth and is currently making a mockery of the 3/1 pre-season quotes for relegation. They themselves have also scored 17 goals but they've also conceded 17 goals leading to seven of their 11 league games seeing Over 2.5 goals winners.

Fulham v Sunderland Tip - Berge and Xhaka in the notebook

Fulham v SunderlandSaturday, 15:00

After last seasons eleventh placed finish, I'm sure nobody saw this match-up pre-season as sixteenth versus fourth but here we are after Fulham have lost five of their last six Premier League matches. I'm sure many realise Sunderland are overachieving with expected points ranking them as the fourteenth best team but all credit to them to be sat in a Champions League spot at this stage.

As soon as I saw this fixture a player match-up leapt off the page to me in the midfield between Fulham's Sander Berge and Sunderland's Granit Xhaka. Berge has eight yellow cards since he joined the Cottagers last season and loves getting stuck in averaging 2.4 tackles and fouls per-game. Xhaka has already picked up four yellow cards since returning to the Premier League where he previously collected 61 cards across seven seasons with Arsenal. He likes to get stuck in even more averaging 3.2 tackles and fouls per-game. Very much looking forward to Berge and Xhaka going head-to-head here. Referee Darren England is showing the sixth most yellows per-game this season.

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Tip - Back goals at Anfield

Liverpool v Nottingham ForestSaturday, 15:00

Despite a controversial disallowed Virgil van Dijk goal who's merit continues to be discussed (clear and obvious anyone?) Liverpool succumbed to a deserved 3-0 defeat at Man City last time out, meaning they have lost five of their last six Premier League games. When you consider they've also been losing at half-time in all of these, it really does make for alarming reading.

With Liverpool also finding the scoresheet in all but one game, what it has meant is an influx of goals with 73% of their matches seeing Over 2.5 goals. Contrast that with 63% last season and the spike is clear. Sean Dyche's Nottingham Forest have seen 10 goals in his first three games and can definitely contribute here against a vulnerable defence.

Wolves v Crystal Palace Tip - Don't complicate Palace

Wolves v Crystal PalaceSaturday, 15:00

Sometimes in betting we can overthink our selections and this looks a classic case here in Rob Edwards' first game in charge for Wolves. There is a general narrative of 'the new manager bounce' and everything will improve once a manager is replaced. This is generally because the previous manager wasn't as bad as everyone thought and suffered bad luck and thus bad results and with the appointment of a new manager it coincides with the bad luck evening itself out and producing positive results. However, whilst bottom side Wolves probably deserve to have more than their two points, underlying data still pinpoints them as being a relegation side with expected points ranking them second bottom. When you sell your star attacker in the summer and fail to adequately replace him, no amount of new manager changes is going to improve that.

Crystal Palace come here as the third best side in the league based on xPts and have a great record against the Old Gold having won eight of their last 10 meetings.

Newcastle v Man City Tip - Banker Guimaraes card

Newcastle v Man CitySaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

This looks an exciting matchup for Saturday night football with the atmosphere sure to be pumped at a packed St James' Park with the visit of high flying Man City to Newcastle. The visitors look to be Arsenal's closest challengers right now having dismantled Champions Liverpool in a run where they have won five of their last six league matches.

One man who will be out to stop them is Toon Army captain Bruno Guimaraes who appears to have a massive disliking to Pep Guardiola's side. In seven Premier League appearances he has been carded in every single one! His next most carded sides are down at a lowly three to show his propensity for a card v City. And we shouldn't expect anything different this time around with Guimaraes averaging the fourth most fouls per-game in the league at 2.1.

Now read our Opta Stats-based bets for Matchday 12

Recommended bets

Back Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 goals @ 23/20

Back Over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v West Ham @ 1.73

Back Over 2.5 goals in Brighton v Brentford @ 1.76

Back Sander Berge to be shown a card @ 10/3

Back Granit Xhaka to be shown a card @ 3/1

Back Sander Berge & Granit Xhaka to be shown a card @ 14/1

Back Over 2.75 goals in Liverpool v Nottingham Forest @ 1.77

Back Crystal Palace to beat Wolves @ 20/21