Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Betting expert Mark Stinchcombe previews all five fixtures | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back for his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back with his regular look at the Saturday fixtures in the Premier League season with picks and insights for every game on Saturday...

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Man City v Tottenham Tip - New boy watch

Man City v TottenhamSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

Man City new boy Tijani Reijnders picked up an assist and is 10/3 to do so again here but he only created one chance in the whole match (0.09xG) and last season at Milan he only managed four assists so it's one to keep a watching brief on.

No player has created more chances under new manager Thomas Frank in his first two games than Mohammed Kudus (five), picking up two assists (v Burnley) but 9/2 seems a little short as big underdogs against a City defence who have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven league games.

Bournemouth v Wolves Tip - Goals on the agenda

Bournemouth v WolvesSaturday, 15:00

Bournemouth played out a classic Andoni Iraola match at Liverpool as they threw men forward to claw back a two goal deficit, only to lose 4-2 in the final few minutes. Last season, the Vitality Stadium was the biggest under performer in terms of goals versus expected goals, with the crowd denied an additional 22 goals (For 13.55, Against 8.45) totaling 61 at an average of 3.21 per-game, suggesting we should be in for an increase this season.

Wolves got off to the worst possible start with a 4-0 defeat at home to Manchester City, and I couldn't help but notice keeper Jose Sa should have done better for some of the goals. Indeed, he was the second worst goalkeeper last season based on Post-Shot xG - Goals Allowed. 74% of Wolves' away matches saw Over 2.5 goals last season, including eight of 11 after Vitor Pereira took over.

Brentford v Aston Villa Tip - Punt for goals

Brentford v Aston VillaSaturday, 15:00

Brentford only conceded two goals from set-pieces last season - the best in the league - yet it took just five minutes for a Forest striker to score from a corner! Not the best start in your first ever managerial job for former set piece coach Keith Andrews.

Indeed it got worse as they found themselves 3-0 down by half-time. No ground saw more goals last season than the Bees' Gtech Community Stadium with 75 in 19 games (3.95 per-game), and despite the departure of Bryan Mbuemo and the likely absence of Yoane Wissa, the likes of Thiago, Kevin Schade and new club record signing Dango Ouattara can contribute. Aston Villa didn't show up at Villa Park last weekend but 69% of their away games went Over 2.5 goals last season.

Burnley v Sunderland Tip - Mackems can avoid defeat

Burnley v SunderlandSaturday, 15:00

Burnley's 3-0 loss coupled with Sunderland's 3-0 win was a great start to my Burnley to finish bottom bet, in a market where these two were joint favourites. I noted how the Clarets over achieved defensively last season by a whopping 22.4 goals and have now lost star keeper James Trafford and defender CJ Egan-Riley. Tottenham cruised to victory, with Burnley allowing 12 shots in their own box, despite Spurs' midweek match against PSG.

Burnley have now failed to win 19 of their last 21 matches in the Premier League and they may suffer a bit of a hangover from their relegation two seasons ago. Added to the fact that manager Scott Parker has lost 31 of his 53 Premier League games, winning just nine times (17%). Sunderland have spent £143M in a bid to stay up and come here with all the confidence in the world.

Arsenal v Leeds Tip - Goal shy Gunners

Arsenal v LeedsSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Arsenal scraped past Man Utd 1-0 at Old Trafford and were far from at their best. Their xG from set plays was more than any other side on MD1 (1.02) but their open play xG was the third lowest (0.28) with star signing Viktor Gyökeres failing to have a shot. He was replaced after just 59 minutes for last seasons top scorer Kai Havertz who is now out for a period with a knee injury.

The Gunners finished the season at the Emirates only scoring eight goals in their final six games and it could be another low scoring match here. Leeds restricted Everton to just seven shots and Leeds themselves only managed a goal from the penalty spot from 21 shots.

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Recommended bets

Back Over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v Wolves @ 1.80

Back Over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Aston Villa @ 1.87

Back Sunderland +0.25 v Burnley @ 1.86

Back Under 3.25 goals in Arsenal v Leeds @ 1.75

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