Promoted Clubs on Course for Premier League’s Worst Survival Record | OneFootball

Premier League Survival: A Dream or a Nightmare?

Reaching the Premier League is the pinnacle for any club battling through the EFL ranks. Yet, in recent years, promotion has felt less like a triumph and more like a short-lived nightmare.

Last season, Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United were unceremoniously dumped back into the Championship, lasting just one campaign in the top flight. This season, the same ominous fate looms over Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town.

With all three promoted clubs currently occupying the league’s bottom places, English football could witness history—consecutive seasons where every newly promoted side is relegated.

Has Premier League survival become an impossible task for those stepping up?

Struggling Trio Facing Record-Breaking Low

When Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United dropped last season, they set an unwanted record—the lowest combined points tally for three relegated teams in a 38-game Premier League season, amassing just 66 points.

This campaign’s bottom three, however, seem destined to undercut even that. Opta projects Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester will collectively muster just 58 points by season’s end.

With 28 matches played, the trio has accumulated only 43 points, the lowest tally at this stage in Premier League history. To put it into perspective, last season’s bottom three had already secured 49 points at this juncture.

It is a dire situation, one that highlights how the Premier League’s lower half has become an unforgiving battlefield.

Southampton in Danger of Worst-Ever Finish

When Southampton clinched promotion via the play-offs, fans dreamed of Premier League stability. Now, with ten games remaining, the club’s focus has shifted to avoiding humiliation.

Photo: IMAGO

Sitting 14 points adrift of safety, Ivan Juric’s side has all but conceded their top-flight status. Their battle is no longer about survival—it’s about avoiding the ignominy of being the worst Premier League team of all time.

That dubious honour currently belongs to Derby County’s infamous 2007-08 side, which finished with a record-low 11 points. Sunderland’s 15-point tally in 2005-06 is another grim benchmark.

Following a heavy defeat to Liverpool at Anfield, Southampton sit on just nine points—fewer than Derby had at this stage in 2008. The only solace? Derby picked up just one more point in their final ten games. Southampton need three to surpass them.

Big Spending No Longer a Guarantee

In the last four seasons, 12 clubs have been promoted—seven have failed to survive their first year. The exceptions? Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham in 2022-23, but even their survival came at a cost.

Forest’s £150 million transfer spree, which included signing over 20 new players, helped them stay up but resulted in a four-point deduction the following season for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations. Fulham’s own investment—over £100 million on players like João Palhinha and Andreas Pereira—ensured stability, but their parachute payments from previous relegations played a significant role.

This season, Southampton and Ipswich also splashed over £100 million in the transfer market. Yet, spending no longer guarantees survival, as financial restrictions tighten and the gulf between mid-table sides and newly promoted teams continues to widen.

For Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich, history is against them. The Premier League has never been more ruthless. Survival is the ultimate challenge—but for the current bottom three, relegation is rapidly becoming inevitable.