PSG v Newcastle: Back Magpies to force 4/1 draw and try 64/1 bet builder | OneFootball

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PSG v Newcastle

PSG still have work to do

After they blew everyone away in Europe last season, their march to glory crowned by a stunning 5-0 win over Inter in the final, the expectation was that PSG would be contending for top spot in the the 2025/26 Champions League table.

But they go into the final game still needing a result against Newcastle with both teams on 13 points and sharing the same goal difference of +10.

It's important to get the permutations and, to avoid relying on others, PSG need a win to guarantee their place in the top eight of the table and automatic qualification for the last 16.

At least stuttering through the group phase (they've had four wins, two defeats and a draw), isn't new as last season the French outfit could only finish 15th after their eight matches. But we all know what happened next.

Magpies have surprising head-to-head edge

While travelling away to the current champions of Europe seems the ultimate task, recent memories will have the Toon Army believing they can get a result.

Newcastle enjoyed one of their finest ever European nights when thumping Kylian Mbappe's PSG 4-1 at St James' Park in the 2023/24 Champions League. And they almost made it a famous double in Paris, the Magpies leading 1-0 through Aleksander Isak before Mbappe equalised with a controversial penalty deep into added time.

With a play-off spot guaranteed, Newcastle can secure a top eight finish with a win. With a draw, they'd still make the top eight if four of Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea and Tottenham either fail to win or lose (Tottenham).

Take on PSG

As expected, the market leans heavily in favour of the hosts. PSG are just 8/15 for the win while Newcastle are 5/1 and The Draw 7/2.

That, in my book, presents an opportunity to take the holders on.

Newcastle's positive head-to-head record is a bonus - perhaps more than that actually - but the main reason for opposing the hosts is that PSG are not the rampant force of last season. At least not yet anyway.

PSG are top of Ligue 1 but only thanks to a late Bradley Barcola goal at second-bottom Auxerre on Friday night. Boss Luis Enrique was far from happy and it came on the back of a 2-1 Champions League loss at Sporting.

Add in a French Cup defeat to local rivals Paris FC and that's now two defeats in four for PSG.

From a Newcastle point of view, their away form in the Premier League hasn't been great but in Europe they've held the lead in all three of their away matches and shown plenty of spark.

They may have to ride their luck at times but Eddie Howe's men have enough about them to get something here.

In which case back The Draw and Both teams to Score at 4/1, the result the last time the two met in Paris.

That takes out the 0-0 but PSG haven't had a home goalless draw in any competition since August 2023.

Gordon worth a play

The market predicts goals, with Over 2.5 just 1/2 and Over 3.5 5/4.

The PSG goalscorer prices are predictably short with Ousmane Dembele odds-on at 10/11. It's 6/4 Desire Doue while Goncalo Ramos and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are both 13/10.

The value is with Newcastle and Anthony Gordon. The winger has netted six goals in the tournament so far and will be on penalties of which the Magpies seem to get plenty.

Gordon to score first in a 1-1 draw is 64/1 in the Scorecast market. Let's have a small dabble.

Remember, an Isak version of this bet landed when the two met in Paris a couple of seasons ago.