Saturday Football Tips: Stinch's three best bets include backing Brighton & boosting Spurs on the Exchange | OneFootball

English Premier League

Oliver Glasner has brought goals to Crystal Palace games

The Premier League returned last weekend and Mark Stinchcombe is back again to talk about his best bets on Saturday...

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Brighton v Man Utd (Sat, 12:30)

Brighton picked up an impressive 3-0 win away at Everton on the opening day of the season to give new boss Fabian Hürzeler the perfect start to life in England.

They have since added Georginio Rutter from Leeds United for a club record transfer fee taking their summer investment to £145M with arguably the strongest squad they've ever had.

Man Utd also began their season with a victory over Fulham at Old Trafford but away from home they've struggled winning just four of their last 13 games, ranking as the fifth worst team in the whole of last season away from home based on expected points. Brighton were 6/5 to win this fixture two seasons ago without European football and look overpriced here at 7/5 slight favourites.

As a result, we can back them Draw No Bet at 4/5 with only a Man Utd win seeing the bet lose.

Betfair SuperBoost

Manchester United travel to Brighton with it all to do, that's according to the odds that as the home side as favourites off the back of the performance of the weekend at Everton.

One of the star players last week was Kaoru Mitoma, back from a lengthy injury last season and netting Brighton's first goal of the season.

Mitoma is a menace for defenders on the left wing, proven by getting Ashley Young sent off after nipping past him and forcing the former Man Utd player to drag him back.

Indeed, Mitoma was fouled 1 or more times in 14 of his 19 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 1.39 fouls won per 90 minutes played. Plus, he has also won 1 or more fouls in all his previous appearances against Manchester United.

Betfair have SuperBoosted him to be fouled one or more times again vs Manchester United, from 1/3 to 1/1!

Crystal Palace v West Ham (Sat. 15:00)

Both sides will be looking to bounce back here after opening weekend defeats. Oliver Glasner made a real difference when he took charge of Crystal Palace in February accumulating the 4th most points of any team.

A real shift from the Roy Hodgson era was the increase in goals with 46 goals in Glasner's 14 games in charge at rate of 3.29 per-game.

West Ham are under a new manager in Julen Lopetegui but that hasn't stopped the goals continuing either with 13 of their last 17 matches seeing over 2.5 goals (76%).

Defense, or lack of, has been a real issue aswell with 13 of their last 19 Premier League games seeing them concede 2+ goals. Last season the Premier League saw an average of 3.28 goals per-game, a huge increase from the general 2.85 per-game seen the previous season and before, with the additional injury time a huge driving factor.

Unless you have a matchup with a negative team or particular game state that effects the attacking output of either side, backing over 2.5 goals at this price is a no brainer. 16 of the last 21 meetings between the sides have produced 3+ goals (76%) with the last 15 in a row seeing both teams score.

Tottenham v Everton (Sat, 15:00)

Really keen to get against Everton here after boss Sean Dyche announced on Thursday they only have "around 14 recognised first-team players" available.

They have no right-back with captain Seamus Coleman out with a calf issue, Nathan Patterson is out long term and Ashley Young is suspended after being sent off against Brighton. Midfielder James Garner, who can fill in at right-back, is also out.

At centre-back, first choice pairing James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite who started 35 of 38 games last season are both likely absent with Tarkowski doubtful whilst Branthwaite continues to recover from a groin problem.

It was the worst start possible to the new season for the Toffees as well with a 3-0 home defeat to Brighton. Everton had just nine shots, only one on target, failed to create a big chance and generated just one corner.

Ashley Young was sent-off after 66 minutes but they were already 2-0 down by that point. Tottenham on the otherhand underwhelmed with a 1-1 draw but were much more dominant, possessing 70% of the ball, having 15 shots, generating two big chances and a massive 13 corners.

Spurs are 1.44 here but with Everton struggling injury wise defensively, they could go off shorter. Let's back them -1.25 on the Asian Handicap where half our stake will be returned if they only win by one, as hopefully their frontline which includes Solanke, Son, Maddison, Brennan, Richarlison, Werner and Kulusevski bring their shooting boots.

Recommended bets

Back Brighton draw no bet @ 4/5

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.82

Back Tottenham -1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96