Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals on the South Coasts and a tight affair at Stamford Bridge | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

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Brighton v West Ham (15:00)

After six wins in eight as they entered March, Brighton looked like they might be making a late push for the European places. Indeed they went to Manchester City and picked up a credible 2-2 draw. However, following the international break, the FA Cup quarter-final defeat on penalties against Nottingham Forest has really seemed to have rocked them with three defeats in four winless games against sides in an average position of just 12th.

It hasn't been much better for West Ham meanwhile under new manager Graham Potter with no wins in six and the embarrassment of failing to beat bottom side Southampton last weekend who had already lost 26 times this season.

This is the sixth worst defence versus the fifth worst defence and as a result Over 2.5 goals has to be backed when it's priced at 1.76. Brighton have conceded at least two goals in their last five matches, resulting in their last 10 games all seeing Over 2.5 goals winners. Their matches have the best strike rate in the entire league for this bet with 73% having three or more goals (24 of 33).

With Graham Potter only having been in charge for 13 games, I'm happy to look at West Ham's season as a whole. Their matches haven't been quite as high scoring but 61% of their games have seen both teams scoring which rises to 64% in their away games. They've scored in 14 of 16 away games so I don't see why they can't contribute to the scoresheet against this Brighton defence.

Chelsea v Everton (15:00)

Sixth place Chelsea's last minute winner at Fulham last weekend having come from a goal down looks crucial in their quest to finish in the top five and qualify for the Champions League next season. As a result, they are two points behind Newcastle in fifth with just five games to go. It doesn't look an easy task at all when you consider their remaining games are Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H), Forest (A) and juggling trying to win the Conference League as well and they're priced accordingly at 5/6 for a top five finish.

This weekends opponents Everton have been excellent since David Moyes took over again in January, picking up 21 points in 14 games - the joint eighth most alongside Chelsea. It's been no fluke either with them ranked sixth based on expected points. So it's not going to be easy as perhaps the odds of 1/2 suggest for Chelsea. Indeed Moyes has only suffered three defeats since his return having made them incredibly difficult to beat which in-turn has seen their last seven finish under 2.5 goals.

Enzo Maresca's recent methodical build-up approach has allowed opposition sides time to organise themselves effectively which has resulted in four of their last six Premier League games seeing less than three goals so let's back Under 2.75 goals with the additional security that only four or more goals will see the bet completely lose. If Chelsea go one up, they may look to protect the lead given the table as well as having one eye on Thursday's Conference League semi-final. It finished 0-0 when they met in December at Goodison Park, in match where despite Maresca's side having 75% possession, they only had 12 shots, generating just 1.17 xG.

Southampton v Fulham (15:00)

After last weekends draw at West Ham, Southampton need just one more point to move past Derby's unenviable record of 11 points and title of the worst Premier League team ever. I'm sure if Simon Rusk has any aspirations for the full-time job he'll be going for victory against a Fulham side that have lost five in seven across all competitions.

Despite only conceding one at West Ham last weekend, I'm still happy to bang the drum at how poor this Southampton defence is, especially given West Ham are only outside the relegation zone by one place. They've failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 games, conceding two or more goals in 12 of their last 15 and three or more goals in 10 of their last 14. Their defence can win Over 2.5 goals bets by themselves. As a result, 64% of their matches this season have seen three or more goals and that increases to 69% at home.

This could be the perfect time to play Fulham this season given their form and the fact their defence has been porous with them having kept just four clean sheets in their last 27 games. It's meant an influx of goals with 14 of their last 21 seeing Over 2.5 goals (67%).

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