Serie A Tips: Back Bologna and Roma to boost UCL bid | OneFootball

Bologna v Juventus - Hosts can win battle of Motta's exes

Sunday 04 May, 19:45

Thiago Motta has left his imprint on both of these clubs, but neither still has him at the helm. He steered Bologna into the Champions League for the first time in their history last term, before defecting to Juventus for what was meant to be a long-term rebuild.

As it turned out, Motta lasted less than a season in Turin. Players seemed at ill at ease with his tactical requirements, attacking players like Dusan Vlahovic and Kenan Yildiz lost their spark, and an inability to turn draws into wins became a chronic condition. Back-to-back defeats against Atalanta (4-0) and Fiorentina (3-0) produced the final straw, as they followed a limp Champions League exit to PSV and a Coppa Italia elimination against lowly Empoli.

His replacement is former Juve player and assistant coach Igor Tudor, and the Bianconeri have claimed ten points from his five games in charge. However, the wins were all at home, and were all against bottom-half sides. On the road, Juve drew 1-1 at Roma and were dismal in a 1-0 defeat at Parma.

Bologna made a sticky start to life after Motta, with ex-Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Italiano struggling to eke out wins. However, the club bosses saw it through, and Italiano has delivered a Coppa Italia final, taking Bologna to the showpiece for the first time in decades. Champions League progress was beyond them, but in the league they are just a point behind Juve in the race for fourth.

Bologna have been excellent at home of late. A stunning stoppage-time scissor-kick from the talismanic Riccardo Orsolini secured a 1-0 win over champions Inter, Milan were edged out 2-1 and Lazio were demolished 5-0. Bologna have won seven of their last eight league matches at the Dall'Ara.

I'll back Bologna Draw No Bet here at 1.75. They have lost just once at home all season in the league, and they have competed superbly with sides of Juventus' quality. Juventus have improved under Tudor, but have they just been flat-track bullies?

Roma v Fiorentina - Ranieri revolution to continue

Sunday 04 May, 17:00

Roma upended Inter's title hopes last week with a 1-0 victory at San Siro, as the impressive Matias Soule grabbed the only goal of the game. Caludio Ranieri's side are now unbeaten in their last 18 Serie A matches, and they are just two points off the Champions League spots.

At the Olimpico, Roma have won eight of their last ten in the league, and five of those eight wins were by two goals or more. Five of those victories featured a clean sheet.

Fiorentina are only a point behind Roma, but while the capital club have had a free week to prepare, La Viola has to go to Seville on Thursday for UECL semi against Betis. Fiorentina lost the game 2-1, and the reverse fixture will be their biggest game of the season.

Roma only have a UCL spot on their hit list, and I think they'll take maximum points here. Let's back them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.2 - Fiorentina have lost five of their last nine on the road in Serie A.

Inter v Verona - Inzaghi's men to get the job done

Saturday 03 May, 19:45

This has been a curious time for Inter. They were distinctly underwhelming in back-to-back 1-0 league defeats to Bologna and Roma, and downright awful in their 3-0 loss to Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-finals. Just when it seemed the Nerazzurri were running out of steam, they pulled off an incredible 3-3 draw at Barcelona in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final.

At Montjuic, Inter led 2-0 and 3-2, and even though they couldn't quite hold onto those leads, they were much more like their usual selves. Simone Inzaghi's men were physical, they exploited Barca's high line when they could, and their aerial defending in the closing stages was superb. They have given themselves every chance of reaching a second Champions League final in the space of three seasons.

Now however Inter have to focus on rescuing their title bid, as they have fallen three points behind leaders Napoli. Inter have won eight of their last ten league games at San Siro, and they could have generous opponents in Verona this weekend. Verona are seven points clear of the dropzone, so are nearly home and hosed, and they have won just three of their last 16 top-flight games.

If you look at Verona's away games against the big hitters, they have lost 1-0 at Roma, 1-0 at Milan, 2-0 at Juventus, 2-0 at Napoli and 6-1 at Atalanta. Paolo Zanetti's team have scored just one goal across their last five matchdays.

I can see Inter winning this in a low gear, with Tuesday night's Champions League clash in mind. I'll back the champions to win and Under 3.5 Goals on the Sportsbook at 5/6.