Sky Sports expert’s verdict on Newcastle United – After fingers burnt… | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Aston Villa.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Aston Villa v Newcastle United game.

“This is a must-watch.

“There is lots on the line involving two teams that are joint top of the Premier League form table for the last six games. It’s such a tough game to predict though from a correct score perspective – when that’s the case, play the draw.

“This is a fantastic game to attack though as the intensity will be high involving two teams that like to play direct and embrace physicality. Shots, tackles and fouls are all options to explore in the various prop markets offered by Sky Bet but it’s a card play that takes my fancy as the 2/1 about Joelinton to be carded looks a winner in waiting.

“The Brazilian has been walking a tightrope of being on nine bookings meaning another card would have meant a two-game ban but the deadline has passed now so he’s free to unleash the dark arts again free of the suspension threat.

“Best bet: Joelinton to be carded (2/1 with Sky Bet)”

Interesting analysis as always, from the Sky Sports expert.

However, worth pointing out that he has regularly had his fingers burnt this season, when backing/predicting against Newcastle United.

Last weekend a prime example, ahead of Newcastle United facing Man U, the Sky Sports expert predicting this…

“I think they [Man U] can frustrate Newcastle playing this way. Away win.

“Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 Man U 1”

Well, I suppose at least he got the one goal for Man U correct!!!

The fact was that ahead of that Man U match, Newcastle United haven’t failed to score at home since November 2024, scoring 30 goals in 12 SJP matches (all competitions). That of course is now 39 goals in 14 SJP matches (including a 3-0 win over Villa), thanks to crushing victories over Man U and Palace.

United’s away form not too shabby either, the last 11 matches that Newcastle have played away from St James’ Park in all competitions, they have won nine of the eleven.

Actually, when the Sky Sports expert predicts a draw later today at Villa Park, worth pointing out that since consecutive PL draws against Palace and Liverpool over four months ago, these latest 18 NUFC Premier League matches haven’t featured a single draw, with 13 wins and five defeats.

When it comes to the prediction of a card for Joelinton today, it is true that he is now free from the threat of getting a two match ban if reaching 10 yellows within the first 32 Premier League matches. However, worth pointing out that both Joelinton and NUFC in general have massively improved their disciplinary record as the season has gone on.

Joelinton picked up four yellow cards in the first six Premier League matches of the season and Newcastle United players overall, picked up 26 yellows in the first 10 PL matches.

In the next 26 Premier League games only five more yellows for Joelinton and indeed none at all since 1 February for the Brazilian midfielder in the PL. Whilst for the NUFC squad overall, only 29 yellows in the last 22 PL matches and only seven in the last eight.

In general, the better a team is playing and dominant in matches, the less likely to pick up a lot of cards, which has certainly been the case with Newcastle United. Indeed, only two clubs now have picked up fewer yellow cards in the Premier League now than NUFC.