Stuttgart's faltering form: A deep dive into their struggles | OneFootball

While last season saw die Schwaben emerge as one of the Bundesliga’s surprise packages, this campaign has provided a mixed bag regarding performances, with the club missing opportunities to establish themselves within the top four, while the challenges of squad turnover have been highlighted.

What are the root causes, and where will the club find itself as the season's crunch point approaches?

Managing Expectations

Securing second place on the final day of the 2023/24 campaign, it would have been unrealistic to carry expectations of Stuttgart replicating their achievements a year on.

Head coach Sebastian Hoeneß lost key figures over the summer, including captain Waldemar Anton, 28-goal Serhou Guirassy, and the ever-steady Hiroki Ito to Bundesliga rivals Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München respectively.

Much alike clubs across the Bundesliga, Stuttgart simply couldn’t simply spend their way to a successive top-four finish. Additionally, their involvement in the Champions League added another layer of difficulty, forcing Hoeneß’s men to navigate a minimum of eight extra midweek matches, or ‘Englische Woche’ as they are known in Germany.

The fact of the matter is that this VfB squad had to prepare for a test that, in hindsight, may have come too soon.

Attack: A Step Backward

Probably the most noticeable difference between this season and the last is the attacking output of Stuttgart.

Finishing the 23/24 campaign with 28 goals, thus being rewarded with a move to Borussia Dortmund, it isn’t an understatement to outline that Stuttgart lost a world-class centre-forward in Serhou Guirassy.

As expected, he has not been the easiest to replace.

Deemed as his like-for-like replacement in the summer, Ermedin Demirovic has managed eight Bundesliga goals from 39 shots in white and red thus far, and now looks to have fallen behind fellow summer arrival Nick Woltemade in the pecking order.

He is only slightly underperforming when compared to his x/G (expected goals) of 8.90 however, suggesting a drop off in Stuttgart’s overall quality regarding the quality of chances and more importantly, the volume in which they are created.

A huge factor has been both the injury-hit season and subsequent dropoff in form for Deniz Undav, who arrived on a permanent deal from Brighton and Hove Albion after a sensational debut season in Stuttgart colours.

Finishing last season with a total of nine assists as the perfect partner in crime for Guirassy, Undav has fallen below the standards previously set, with just one assist to his name after 23 matches.

Despite his numbers not matching the best year of his career to date, Chris Führich has been one of the most dangerous creators for VfB once again, with his expected assists per 90 minutes sitting at 0.29 in comparison to 0.32 last campaign.

Führich’s two assists thus far, however, are a far cry from the seven obtained in his breakout year, offering insight again into  VfB’s attacking falloff.

Team-wide, Stuttgart have found the back of the net 41 times in the Bundesliga thus far, with this being 11 fewer than the 52 scored after 23 matches last year.

They have also conceded 34 times, five more than the 29 conceded last year.

The result? Stuttgart are 11 points worse off than at this exact stage last season. Had they matched their previous points total, they would once again find themselves sitting in third place.

Form and Inconsistencies

Stuttgart’s form has been erratic, especially after the winter break. Upon their return from the winter break, impressive wins against Augsburg and RB Leipzig were secured and continued to start the Rückrunde in style with comfortable wins against Freiburg and Slovan Bratislava.

However, Hoeneß’s men soon hit a rough patch, suffering losses to Mainz, Paris Saint Germain and Borussia Mönchengladbach, before another up-and-down run against Augsburg, Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim.

Despite key individuals returning from injury in Jamie Leweling and Deniz Undav, VfB have failed to maintain consistency, with a major issue being this season's inability to close out games.

Notable matches against Mainz, Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg should have yielded three points, however, Stuttgart squandered opportunities and ended up settling for two draws and a loss.

Looking Ahead

The remainder of the season will be crucial for Stuttgart. While they may not be able to match last year’s highs, securing European football remains a realistic target. However, they must address their tendency to let points slip away, especially against mid-table and lower-ranked teams.

If they can find answers to these issues, Stuttgart can still finish the season on a strong note. But if their inconsistencies persist, they risk slipping further down the table, missing out on crucial opportunities once again.

The remainder of the season will be crucial for Stuttgart. Whilst last year’s aforementioned highs aren’t and shouldn’t be the benchmark, securing European football remains a realistic target, and one that if achieved may see the retention of Hoeneß alongside key players ahead of potential summer reinforcements.

However, die Schwaben must address their tendency to let points slip away, especially against mid-table and lower-ranked opposition.