Sul-Americana likely, Libertadores hopes slim – see the stats | OneFootball

São Paulo had a key match in the Brasileirão to keep real hopes alive of reaching the next edition of the Copa Libertadores. But the 3-1 defeat to Corinthians made those already slim chances even smaller, in addition to reviving their rival in the fight for a spot.

The tricolor team is in 9th place with 45 points, the same as Bragantino (8th) and Corinthians (10th). The last team currently securing qualification through the G7 is Bahia, already with a distant 53 points.

Remember, there is still a possibility that the spots could extend to the G8, if the winner of the Copa do Brasil, which will only be decided after the end of the Brasileirão, also secures their Libertadores spot via the national championship. Cruzeiro (3rd), Corinthians (10th), Fluminense (6th), and Vasco (13th) are the semifinalists.

With the new defeat, São Paulo's chances of reaching the Libertadores dropped to just 1.9%, according to data from the UFMG Mathematics Department.

Meanwhile, the possibility of playing in the Copa Sudamericana in 2026 has exploded and is now at 91.3%. This is really the most likely outcome, given the never-ending injury crisis, as well as the team's low performance and inconsistency in matches.

An infinitesimal mathematical chance of 0.01% still exists for São Paulo to be relegated to Série B in 2026, even after having reached the ‘magic number’ of 45 points in the standings.

No time to cry, the Tricolor already returned to training on the morning of this Friday (21), where they began preparations for Sunday’s (23) match against Juventude, once again at Vila Belmiro.

Hernán Crespo will still lead one last training session this Saturday (22), now for real, with all the starters who only worked internally today. Then, in this session, he will define the lineup for the match against the team from Rio Grande do Sul. They have definitely lost Alisson, suspended after his third yellow card, and most likely .

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.