Supercomputer lowers Sporting’s Champions League hopes, bad news | OneFootball

Sporting found themselves in a very delicate position in the Champions League round of 16 after a 3-0 defeat against Bodø/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion. The Norwegians scored through Sondre Fet, from a penalty, Ole Blomberg, and Kasper Høgh, at 32, 45+1, and 71 minutes.

After the match, the Opta supercomputer updated the competition's probabilities and drastically reduced the chances of the Lions advancing to the quarter-finals. Before the match started, Rui Borges's team had a 64.99% chance of qualifying; after the defeat in Norway, that value dropped to just 13.37%.

Among the teams still in the competition, Sporting now appears with one of the lowest qualification probabilities, only above Atalanta (0.04% after a 1-6 defeat against Bayern Munich), Tottenham (3.32% after losing 5-2 to Atlético de Madrid), and Chelsea (7.04% after a 5-2 loss to PSG).

Other teams that also need to recover in the second leg have more favorable probabilities. Manchester City, defeated 3-0 by Real Madrid, has a 17.05% chance of advancing, while Liverpool, which lost 1-0 to Galatasaray, maintains 51.36%.

Among the teams in a better position to reach the quarter-finals are Arsenal and Barcelona, who both drew 1-1 in their visits to Bayer Leverkusen and Newcastle United. The qualification probabilities are 78.07% for the English and 68.15% for the Spanish.

The defeat also affected Sporting's projections in the later stages of the competition. The chances of reaching the semi-finals dropped from 25.94% to 5.05%, while the probability of playing in the final went from 9.14% to just 1.45%. The estimate to win the trophy is now 0.50%, whereas before the game it was 3.38%.

According to the Opta model, the main candidate for the title is Bayern Munich, with a 26.34% probability, followed by Arsenal (22.07%), Barcelona (12.10%), PSG (10.17%), Real Madrid (8.34%), and Atlético de Madrid (6.14%).

Interestingly, Bodø/Glimt themselves now appear ahead of the Lions in the probabilities of winning the competition, with 2.15%, also surpassing Bayer Leverkusen (0.99%), Galatasaray (0.85%), and Chelsea (0.76%). Only Tottenham (0.05%) and Atalanta (0.00%) are below Sporting in the current forecasts.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.