Supercoppa Italiana preview: Inter vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·5. Januar 2025

Supercoppa Italiana preview: Inter vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan and Inter will renew hostilities on Monday night as they face each other in a derby to win the Supercoppa Italiana out in Saudi Arabia.

It will be the third time that Milan and Inter have faced each other in the Super Cup final, with the current record split at one win each. The Rossoneri came from behind to beat Juventus 2-1 to qualify, while the Nerazzurri ran out 2-0 victors over Atalanta in the other semi-final.

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At his pre-match press conference, Conceicao spoke about his squad and the condition of some players including Rafael Leao, his relationship with Simone Inzaghi and much more.

Game date: Monday, January 6 Kick-off time: 20:00 (CET) Venue: Al-Awwal Park Referee: Simone Sozza (VAR: Marini)

Team news

As mentioned, the start of the Conceicao era was a positive one, with Milan overcoming Juventus in the semis despite going a goal behind. A Christian Pulisic penalty levelled after Kenan Yildiz’s opener, then Yunus Musah’s cross deflected in off Federico Gatti to complete the quick turnaround.

It is quite a strange situation in the sense that the Portuguese’s second game in charge will give him the chance to win his first trophy. Not only that, but his first match saw him face his son (who was ultimately injured), and this one will see him meet the side he played at from 2001 to 2003.

This will be far from an easy final not just because of the level of the opponent, but also because the Rossoneri have not had long to work under the new coach and they are battling injuries in the forward department.

The main news is that the former Porto boss has not yet ruled out Rafael Leao from the game, with the winger having missed Friday’s semi-final. He ‘certainly doesn’t have 90 minutes’ in his legs, so at best it would probably be a spot on the bench.

The opponents

It was Denzel Dumfries who was the star of the show in the other semi-final at the same venue on Thursday night. The Dutch wing-back scored twice – including a rocket of a shot that went in off the bar – as Simone Inzaghi continued his dominance over Gian Piero Gasperini and Atalanta.

The win also continued a great run for the Nerazzurri, who have won five games in a row without conceding a goal for the first time in over 17 years. That run includes a 5-0 win away at Verona and a 6-0 victory against fellow high-flyers Lazio, so it seems they have fully clicked again.

It has been a case of ‘don’t fix what isn’t broken’ when it comes to Inzaghi’s system and tactics. Inter continue to heavily rely on the 3-5-2, though this season Marcus Thuram has taken over the bulk of the scoring responsibilities from captain Lautaro Martinez.

The issue for them is that Thuram is not expected to make the game, and at best could play a portion off the bench as he continues to battle some muscle fatigue. Not having the Frenchman would undoubtedly be a big blow.

The other injury issues are in the rearguard: Francesco Acerbi is sidelined with a hamstring strain that should keep him out a few more days, and Benjamin Pavard is also recovering from a hamstring problem too.

After the emphatic win against Atalanta, changes are not really expected from Simone Inzaghi. In fact, the head coach is only set to make one change due to injury.

Yann Sommer; Yann Bisseck, Stefan de Vrij and Alessandro Bastoni will make up the back four for the Nerazzurri with Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries as the wing-backs, as usual.

In midfield, Hakan Calhanoglu will sit between Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Nicolo Barella. Then, Lautaro Martinez will be joined by Conceicao’s former striker – Mehdi Taremi – with the aforementioned Thuram out.

Predicted Inter XI (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Taremi, Lautaro.

Head to head

Milan have faced Inter 224 times in their history, with Juventus being the only side they have played more. The blue half of the city have the better record with 85 wins, while the red side have won 72 and there have been 67 draws.

This will be the third Supercoppa final clash between the city rivals. The first was won by Milan in 2011 out in China, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Kevin-Prince Boateng responding after Wesley Sneijder’s opener.

The more recent meeting was in January 2023 in Saudi Arabia, and it was a comfortable Inter victory. Federico Dimarco and Edin Dzeko scored in the first half, then Lautaro Martinez sealed the trophy in the second 45.

Milan and Inter have already met in the league this season, and it provided perhaps the high point of Paulo Fonseca’s brief tenure. Pulisic and Matteo Gabbia scored in each half in a 2-1 win ‘away’ against the champions, with the centre-back’s goal a dramatic late winner.

There is an added bit of intrigue to this particular final: with a win, the Rossoneri would lift their 50th major trophy as a club, while if the Nerazzurri won then they would further close the gap after a recent surge in silverware.

Key facts and stats

➤ Inter and Milan face off for the third time in the Italian Super Cup; in the previous two encounters, each team has won once (2-1 for the Rossoneri in the 2011 edition and 3-0 for the Nerazzurri in the 2022 edition).

➤ Milan won the last match against Inter across all competitions (2-1 in September); the Rossoneri could secure at least two consecutive victories over the Nerazzurri for the first time since between November 2010 and August 2011 (run of three, the last of which was also a 2-1 win in the Italian Super Cup).

➤ Inter and Milan will each compete in their 13th Italian Super Cup final in their history, only Juventus has more (17). In addition, only Juventus (9) has won this trophy more times than the Nerazzurri (8) and the Rossoneri (7).

➤ Inter could become the first team to win four consecutive Italian Super Cup finals; while overall, besides the Nerazzurri, the only other team to have won three consecutive titles in the tournament is their opponent, Milan (3 between 1992 and 1994).

➤ Milan are unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 matches across all competitions (W8 D4), with their only defeat being against Atalanta in December, after losing three of their previous five games (W2).

➤ Inter have won their last five games without conceding a goal in all competitions, while only on one occasion have they recorded more wins in a row without conceding a goal in their history; a run of six between November and December 2007 under Roberto Mancini.

Ones to watch

Starting with the ‘home team’, Milan must be wary of the wing-backs. Against Atalanta, the game was won by Dumfries, but we know how dangerous Dimarco can be on the left side as well. For this reason, the Rossoneri must be cautious when Inter counter, as the threat will be created out wide.

Mehdi Taremi also poses an interesting threat. With Lautaro Martinez struggling and Marcus Thuram injured, the Iranian must perform to a high standard if the Nerazzurri are to get a result and against his former head coach, it could be a story waiting to be told.

The derby could be decided by the finest margins, and perhaps the leader of this could be Yunus Musah. With Conceicao’s decision to change formation against Juventus, Musah was key, and with him involved from the start, we could see a more fluid game for the Rossoneri, if this is the case, the American’s involvement will be vital to a result. For this reason, Alex Jimenez could also be crucial.

A big part of tomorrow’s game will be the ability to finish chances, and this means that Alvaro Morata needs to have a big game. He has not scored for a month, and with suggestions that Milan could look for a striker in the mercato, he needs to prove his worth to Conceicao.

Prediction

Inter’s quality is there for all to see, and if Milan are not at their best, the Nerazzurri could run away with things. Considering the current situation with the Rossoneri too – injuries, new system etc. – a game against Inzaghi’s side might just be a little too much too soon for the side.

Inter 2-0 Milan