The incredible Premier League table if Man City are handed 60-point deduction | OneFootball

If found guilty of their 115 charges, Manchester City could be handed a 60-point point deduction, but would that be enough to relegate them this season? We’ve crunched the numbers.

Football Finance expert Kieran Maguire has suggested that a point deduction of between 40 and 60 points would be a reasonable punishment for City, if they are found guilty.

“It should be resolved in the next few months,” Maguire said on The Overlap.

“But we said this before, you know, Pep was saying last February that he was expecting something. There’s an awful lot of evidence to go through and this and the charges are very, very serious. So you’ve got to have enough evidence.

“We have got well over 115 charges so what happens if it is 70-50 in terms of favour to the Premier League or favour of Manchester City?

“If Manchester City are found guilty of non-cooperation, which is fairly likely, they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there. If it’s a points deduction, I think the Premier League will claim it as a victory.”

In terms of a potential point deduction, Maguire cited Everton and Nottingham Forest’s recent cases when predicting City’s likely punishment.

“If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger.

“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant.

“I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.”

Over the past five seasons, had City been deducted 60 points, they would’ve only survived in the 2023-24 campaign.

With a -60 deduction, this is where they would’ve finished over the past five campaigns:

2024-25: 20th, 11 points 2023-24: 17th, 31 points 2022-23: 19th, 29 points 2021-22: 18th, 33 points 2020-21: 18th, 26 points

Given that the threshold for Premier League survival will likely be higher this season than in previous years, a deduction could prove brutal if it comes in the next few months.

For context, this is how the table would currently look if Pep Guardiola’s side are deducted 60 points:

1. Arsenal – 61 points, +35GD 2. Aston Villa – 51 points, +10GD 3. Manchester United – 48 points, +11GD 4. Chelsea – 45 points, +17GD 5. Liverpool – 45 points, +7GD 6. Brentford – 40 points, +3GD 7. Bournemouth – 38 points, -2GD 8. Everton – 37 points, -2GD 9. Fulham – 37 points, -3GD 10. Newcastle – 36 points, -1GD 11. Sunderland – 36 points, -5 GD 12. Crystal Palace – 35 points, -3GD 13. Brighton – 34 points, +2GD 14. Leeds – 31 points, -9GD 15. Spurs – 29 points, -4GD 16. Nottingham Forest – 27 points, -14GD 17. West Ham – 25 points, -17GD 18. Burnley – 19 points, -23GD 19. Wolves – 10 points, -33GD 20. Manchester City – -4 points, +31GD

Even if City won all of their remaining 11 fixtures, they could only finish on a maximum of 29 points, which would almost certainly relegate them to the Championship.

However, if City are handed a more lenient punishment, they would stand a better chance of survival.

For example, if they were deducted 40 points, it would take them down to 19th on 16 points, but they’d only be 16 points from safety with 11 games remaining.

In that version of events, they’d still be able to finish the season with a maximum of 49 points, which would be good enough to secure survival.

If City were handed a 40-point deduction, this is how the Premier League table would currently shape up:

1. Arsenal – 61 points, +35GD 2. Aston Villa – 51 points, +10GD 3. Manchester United – 48 points, +11GD 4. Chelsea – 45 points, +17GD 5. Liverpool – 45 points, +7GD 6. Brentford – 40 points, +3GD 7. Bournemouth – 38 points, -2GD 8. Everton – 37 points, -2GD 9. Fulham – 37 points, -3GD 10. Newcastle – 36 points, -1GD 11. Sunderland – 36 points, -5 GD 12. Crystal Palace – 35 points, -3GD 13. Brighton – 34 points, +2GD 14. Leeds – 31 points, -9GD 15. Spurs – 29 points, -4GD 16. Nottingham Forest – 27 points, -14GD 17. West Ham – 25 points, -17GD 18. Burnley – 19 points, -23GD 19. Manchester City – 16 points, +31GD