Tottenham chances of Premier League relegation revealed after Roberto De Zerbi appointment | OneFootball

Spurs, West Ham and more learn scale of the challenge ahead to avoid the drop

Tottenham’s chances of relegation have been revealed, with new head coach Roberto De Zerbi facing a baptism by fire as he attempts to keep his new side in the Premier League.

There are now just seven games from which the Italian must try to accrue enough points to avoid dropping down to the Championship, starting with a trip to Sunderland on April 12 and finishing at home to Everton on May 24.

Heading into the March international break, Spurs sat just one place and one point above 17th-placed West Ham in the table following a damaging defeat at the hands of fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest - now two points above them, and three clear of the drop zone - in what proved to be Tudor’s final match at the helm.

With such fine margins as the campaign nears its conclusion, Opta’s supercomputer carried out some number-crunching to assess each club’s percentage chance of relegation after that most recent round of league fixtures, which also saw the Hammers lose.

Wolves and Burnley, currently 20th and 19th, are so far from safety - 13 and 10 points back from Spurs, at present - that they have been deemed to have 99.94 and 99.90 per cent chances, respectively, of dropping into the second tier next season when all is said and done.

Spurs let slip a huge opportunity to move clear of the relegation zone when they lost to Forest

Getty Images

Forest, meanwhile, have just an 8.48 per cent chance of suffering the same fate, with five points from their last three outings potentially going a long way to help Vitor Pereira’s 16th-placed group stay up.

Leeds could also be in some danger, having won just one of their last nine league matches, though Opta’s calculations suggest they may stave off relegation; they have been given a 7.20 per cent chance of going down, with four points and a superior goal difference currently separating them from Nuno Espirito Santo’s Irons.

Instead, the statisticians have tipped the Premier League relegation battle to most likely come down to West Ham and Spurs.

Luckily for fans from the latter camp, it is still the Hammers who have the highest chance of relegation after Wolves and Burnley, at 59.94 per cent.

However, Spurs have been handed a 27.47 % chance of spending the 2026/27 campaign in the Championship.

Matches against Wolves (A) and Leeds (H) will be viewed as must-wins for De Zerbi and his new charges, who could kick-off at the Stadium of Light in the relegation zone if West Ham win their first game back from the break (at home to Wolves on April 10).

After that, it may well go down to the wire with both sides - and those just above them, namely Forest and Leeds - facing a mixed bag of fixtures between now and the end of May.

Of the remaining top-flight clubs, only Crystal Palace have been given the slightest chance of relegation. Even then, the Eagles have a 99.93 per cent chance of staying up.