What do Scotland and Brazil need to qualify for the World Cup knockouts from Group C? | OneFootball

Scotland’s hopes of advancing at the World Cup are hanging in the balance - as they now prepare for their final group game against Brazil in Miami.

The Tartan Army’s worst fears from the opening 1-0 win against Haiti were realised almost as soon as Scotland kicked off against Morocco. Scotland knew they couldn’t afford another disjointed performance, but were nevertheless stunned by Ismael Saibari’s thumping finish after just 70 seconds, which proved the difference.

Steve Clarke’s side now face the daunting task of playing five-time winners Brazil, who got into their groove against Haiti last time out, with the Scots needing a draw - or, at the least, needing to avoid a heavy defeat - to advance to the knockout stages of a World Cup for the first time.

Morocco, meanwhile, are in pole position to qualify as they face already-eliminated Haiti in their final group outing.

What does Scotland need to qualify?

Let’s get the most optimistic but clear-cut scenario out of the way first. If Scotland beat Brazil, they’re into the knockouts, possibly as group winners if Morocco fail to beat Haiti. Dream big, Tartan Army.

A draw would almost certainly be enough for Scotland to qualify, as it would take them to the elusive four-point mark. This should put them among the eight best third-placed teams, who will progress to the round of 32 along with all top-two group finishers.

While three points and a positive goal difference is likely to be enough, four points is extremely likely to be enough, but Scotland would need to wait until later in the tournament for this to be confirmed; with several teams putting together a run of draws, there could be a number of teams in third with four points.

If Scotland lose, their World Cup fate will be in the balance. The good news for Scotland is they only lost 1-0 to Morocco. If they repeat the trick against Brazil and only lose by a one-goal margin, they will finish the group stage on three points and with a goal difference of -1. Based on previous editions of the European Championships that could be good enough to go through as one of the eight-best third-placed teams. But they would be right on the fence.

What does Brazil need to qualify?

Avoiding defeat to Scotland will see Brazil reach this year’s knockout stages, and they’ll have a good shot at topping the group if they produce a high-scoring win, adding to the goal difference they racked up against Haiti.

If they lose - which would surely be the greatest result in Scotland’s history - the Selecao should still be in a good spot to progress as one of the eight-best third-placed teams, already on four points heading into the final outing. To keep their spot in the top two in this scenario, Brazil would require Morocco to lose to Haiti which is highly unlikely.

What does Morocco need to qualify?

Morocco are in the most favourable position heading into the final group game.

Facing the group’s easiest opposition in Haiti, who are already out of the tournament, they’ll qualify for the knockouts with any sort of result and could very well end up topping the group if they run riot.

If the Atlas Lions do end up getting stunned by the Caribbean minnows, however, they still require Scotland to beat Brazil to knock them out of the top two. And even then, they’ll likely qualify as one of the eight-best third-placed teams, as like Brazil, they are already on four points heading into the group’s climax.

If teams finish on the same number of points their standing in the group will be determined by the head-to-head record against the nation they are level with. If one team tied on points with another has beaten them in the group stage, the winners will finish higher up the table.

Where multiple teams are level on points, a mini-league is created, removing the results against the remaining teams. Those tied teams are ranked by points won in the games involving each other, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If that does not split them, the next criteria is goal difference followed by goals scored for the group overall.

Any other tiebreakers?

If teams are still level on points following head-to-head results, goal difference and goals scored then the Team Conduct Score (TCS) comes into play. It is basically a fair play score and is rated based on the amount of cards a team has collected. Each team, including managers and backroom staff, started on zero and were deducted points throughout the group stage as follows:

The closer to zero, the better the score. If the teams are still level, whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June's published update will go through.

How are the top eight third place finishers determined?

The top eight third place finishers will be decided on which teams have accumulated the most points.

Should eight or more nations finish third with the same number of points, the nations who progress will then be determined by goal difference.

In all likelihood, teams that finish third with four points or higher will go through, the teams on three points will need the best possible goal difference to progress.