5 pre-World Cup predictions that already look silly: Messi, Spain and more… | OneFootball

The first round of fixtures for the 2026 World Cup is complete and already some pre-tournament predictions look very silly.

Every team has now played once, and while the tournament is yet to really unfold, some hot takes have already aged badly.

Here are some of the hunches that have already been proven wrong.

Lionel Messi is past it

A lot of pre-tournament predictions for who would win the Golden Ball featured names like Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Ousmane Dembele and yet 2022’s winner was largely absent.

With Messi out of the European gaze in the MLS and now at 38, many thought that he would be a level down from what we are used to.

But he sure proved that wrong.

Messi scored a hat-trick in Argentina’s World Cup game, proving himself to be as influential as ever and removing any question that he may be past it.

His goals were just so typically Messi. His first was a curling effort placed perfectly for the keeper to not be able to save it. His second an example of how he seems to have so much more time than anyone else before his third, another ball placed into the corner.

Argentina did look vulnerable at times but Messi is the ultimate cheat code. Even if he soon turns 39.

Spain are clear favourites

The European champions entered the tournament as favourites for many and with the anticipation that this would be a crowning moment for Lamine Yamal.

Any possible success story though has started with adversity after a surprise draw to Cape Verde, the 67th best team in the world compared to the second.

Freak results in World Cups do happen, Spain actually lost their opening match of the 2010 tournament, but perhaps most concerning for Luis de la Fuente is that the scoreline was not solely down to Cape Verde heroics but instead Spain’s wastefulness.

Of their 27 shots, just seven were on target. Mikel Oyarzabal, a player some had predicted for the Golden Boot, went 30 minutes without a touch, a record since records began.

There’s no need to hit the panic button just yet but Spain’s status as the clear favourite is under threat.

Portugal can win with Cristiano Ronaldo

If Messi proved a lot of predictions wrong in a positive way, Ronaldo proved them wrong in a negative way.

Portugal have a squad made up of the backbone of PSG’s Champions League winning side, earning them a position as one of the tournament’s favourites but the opening round of group stage fixtures has proven one thing – doing so with Ronaldo is a tall order.

He was the black hole of Portugal’s attack in their underwhelming 1-1 draw against DR Congo. He had three shots, all of which went wide, and fewer touches in the box than a player who came on at half time.

And yet, the iron grip Ronaldo has on the Portuguese national team was proven with a single line from head coach Roberto Martinez’s press conference.

“It makes no sense to get the best goal scorer in world football out in a game that you need goals.”

Considering he is on the verge of a move to Ronaldo’s club Al-Nassr, it should come as no surprise that Roberto Martinez is a fully paid-up member of the cult of Cristiano but the rest of the squad are football-intelligent enough to know that having Ronaldo on the pitch, especially from the start, is detrimental to the team.

When Portugal were chasing a goal and wanted to bring on Goncalo Ramos, Martinez swapped out holding midfielder Vitinha for him, proving he would happily sacrifice shape if it keeps Ronaldo happy.

Ronaldo will almost certainly start the next game, the question is whether the rest of the 11 are good enough to win in spite of him.

Germany are not a threat

It seems mad to even say it but going into the tournament, there were some relegating Germany to dark horse status.

A victory against the smallest nation at the World Cup is not enough in itself to change opinions but hitting seven with six different goalscorers is a statement, regardless of opponent.

Perhaps it isn’t as strong across the lineup a Germany team as the winners of 2014 but the attacking talent alone should be enough to get them far in the tournament.

Crucially too, they have players that turn up for their national team. Florian Wirtz looks a different player to the one we saw at Liverpool. Jamal Musiala runs the attack from the number 10 spot. Kai Havertz has already got two goals.

Tougher tests are still to come but anyone suggesting Germany had no chance will be questioning that opinion.

48 teams lead to more hammerings

The expansion to 48 teams has rightfully been criticised as a money-grabbing exercise by FIFA but one aspect that has not proved true so far is we will see more hammerings as a result.

Curacao of course got battered by Germany but that can happen (just ask Brazil) and aside from the smallest nation at this tournament, the underdogs have not disgraced themselves.

The lowest-ranked team at this tournament, New Zealand, began with a draw. Haiti lost by a single goal. Ghana earned a win over Panama in their opening game.

And there’s Cape Verde who pulled off one of the biggest World Cup shocks of all-time by holding Spain to a goalless draw.

A valid criticism of the expanded format is it has diluted the competitiveness of the group stage because a single win will likely be enough to see a team through but the smaller nations have not embarrassed themselves.