A New Number Nine? Why Southampton Are Targeting Manchester City Striker Divin Mubama | OneFootball

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Southampton have reportedly reached a verbal agreement with Manchester City to sign Divin Mubama on a season-long loan, with the striker now poised to return to the Championship.

The English forward has caught the eye during Manchester City’s pre-season under head coach Enzo Maresca, scoring in two of the club’s opening friendlies against Inter Milan and the K League All-Stars.

Scoring two goals with an assist in three games has given the 21-year-old an ideal start to pre-season, displaying the finishing instincts that have made him an attractive option to a host of clubs.

But why may Southampton be interested in Mubama, and what could he offer manager Tonda Eckert?

What Does Southampton Need?

As of now, the Saints have just one physical profile up top. Eckert’s system benefits from having a central striker capable of giving Southampton a direct option when opponents prevent them from playing through the press.

The addition of 6’2″ Cyle Larin in January allowed them to play this way effectively. He could receive long balls, back into imposing defenders and lay it off to bring others into play.

Southampton recorded their strongest goalscoring metrics towards the end of the season when a target profile was used up front. The German head coach highlighted the effectiveness of this approach, explaining they had “found a good model” by rotating two physical options in Larin and Ross Stewart – which allowed at least one of the two to be on the pitch at all times.

Now, Stewart’s physical presence needs to be replaced, given he’s joined fellow Championship outfit Swansea City, and it seems they’ve opted for a younger option to pair effectively with 31-year-old Larin. It makes sense – with Larin being able to play more minutes this season, it allows Mubama to develop alongside him, offering a similar physical outlet but a different, more energetic profile.

Early Signs of Promise

After being signed by Manchester City two years ago, spending his first campaign in the under-21 setup, Mubama joined Stoke City on a season-long loan last season.

The 21-year-old picked up 26 league appearances for the Potters, netting five goals from an xG of 5.6. For his first full senior season, he showed encouraging signs. However, it is fair to question why a side with clear promotion ambitions is targeting a player with limited senior experience.

Peter Smith, who covers Stoke City for The Sentinel, believes Mubama offered enough during the early part of the campaign to suggest he could lead the line at Championship level.

“Mubama’s form in the early part of the season propelled him to become England under-21s’ main centre-forward. He showed signs that he can lead the line at this level and find the corners with his shooting.”

The 21-year-old had a dream start at the club, scoring a last-minute winning header on his debut against Derby County. Shortly after, he doubled his tally with another header against Sheffield Wednesday.

However, Smith also acknowledged the difficulties Mubama faced during his first senior loan: “First loans are normally difficult though, and heading into the winter he needed to find a way to help the team and not frustrate the crowd in games when he wasn’t firing on all cylinders.

“We’ll be interested to see what he’s learned or how he’s progressed if we come up against him in the next few weeks.”

Mubama scored in three of his league appearances, meaning he went goalless in 23, struggling to make an impact on a consistent basis in the Championship.

Divin Mubama averaged just 0.28 goals per 90, sitting in the 48th percentile among Championship strikers (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)

An Inconsistent First Loan

Speaking to podcaster and Stoke City fan Karl, he believes the striker could flourish in the right environment: “I think he could thrive in a squad that would give him service. At Stoke, he didn’t get much service at all, and his time was hampered by injury towards the end.”

Despite Stoke starting brightly, they slowly dwindled down the table. Their chance creation took a noticeable hit too, finishing the campaign ranked 19th for big chances and 21st for expected goals.

After being on the end of a brutal tackle against QPR in January, Mubama was sidelined for over two months with ligament damage. He made his return against Preston in March, featuring in just two of their last seven matches of the campaign.

“He was quite a frustrating player, to be honest,” Karl added.

“Without trying to sound too negative, he gets in good positions, but his timing of runs was poor. He was caught offside more than he was onside, and I think a lot of Stoke fans would agree with me on that one. At times he appears lazy as well, hence the reason he was caught offside a lot.”

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When the ball was out wide for Stoke, he would usually remain on the last line of defence, looking to drop a shoulder and accelerate in behind. As Karl mentioned, his curved runs were often made too late, leaving him already beyond the defensive line as the pass was played.

Divin Mubama consistently looked to quickly drop on the shoulder of the defender and instantly accelerate in behind. But he was often not picked up, and lacked the intensity to make himself available again. (Credit: Sky Sports)

This is an area where Tonda Eckert will look to develop Mubama. Southampton need a second number nine capable of stretching Championship defences, and Mubama’s instinct to threaten the space in behind should be capitalised upon.

“We saw a glimpse of the player he can be against Bristol City, where he scored a hat trick. He’s still only a young player, so he will improve; give him service, and perhaps [with] the experience he’s gained, he could become a decent Championship player.”

With higher-quality players around him and a manager in Eckert who has shown an ability to develop players, such as striker Cyle Larin, Southampton could provide the environment for him to turn those promising flashes into improved Championship output.

Hold-up Play

Mubama’s physicality is likely one of the most appealing aspects to the Saints, as he consistently backs into defenders and engages in physical duels while also making himself available for long balls. He won 35% of his aerial duels per 90 last season, demonstrating that he can provide an outlet when Southampton look to play directly.

Under Mark Robins, the 21-year-old was often isolated.

This contributed to a lower success rate in terms of being able to hold it up and lay it off to his teammates. Eckert often opted for Finn Azaz to operate in and around the Canadian, providing an option to play to – this would benefit Mubama.

The Manchester City forward also has an awareness of when to drop into the space in front of the defence, offering himself as a passing option rather than always looking to threaten in behind. His ability to receive and connect play is seen in his 77% accuracy of progressive passes last season.

Out-of-Possession Work

One area that will require significant development is his intensity when pressing. Rather than aggressively chasing down the defender in possession, Mubama lacked intensity to shut them down, often relying on his cover shadow to block the central passing lane behind him.

When pressing alone, his focus was generally on the central defender in possession, while in a front two he typically took responsibility for one centre-back as his partner pressed the other. The issue is more about the intensity with which he executes the press – highlighted in physical situations, with Mubama winning just 32% of his offensive duels per 90.

That will need to improve under Tonda Eckert, whose 4-4-2 out-of-possession structure requires the two forwards to apply pressure to the opposition’s central defenders. When Larin arrived on the South Coast, Eckert’s priority was to improve his intensity and overall fitness: “Larin is a lot further than he was in January. If I compare him now to then, we are talking about a different player.”

Mubama could receive similar treatment in order to hit the ground running.

Movement in the Box

Mubama’s movement when attacking crosses is particularly interesting and has similarities to Cyle Larin’s. Rather than simply attacking the near post or holding a central position, he looks to initially position himself between the centre-backs or move into an area where one defender can’t see him.

As seen with his first goal against Bristol City and against Inter Milan this pre-season, he drifts away from the centre-back before changing direction sharply and, in turn, attacking the space he has created.

Divin Mubama’s movement for his goal against Inter Milan. Shows him quickly changing pace to attack the space left behind the defender. (Credit: Manchester City YouTube)

It gives him the tools to become a dangerous presence in the box, especially if Southampton can provide him with consistent service from wide areas, utilising the likes of Ryan Manning and Tom Fellows on the bylines.

A Chance to Take the Next Step

The 21-year-old has stood out during Manchester City’s pre-season.

Man City-focused journalist Amos Murphy has seen signs, from the youngster’s brief number of appearances, that Mubama can contribute beyond simply finishing moves.

“He’s got a directness, an awareness, as well as how to make the runs. I think that’s something that’s really important for a striker and something you can’t necessarily teach. It’s one of those instinctive behaviours that often separates the best from the rest, and he has shown signs of that.”

Eckert’s forwards are required to do more than occupy the opposition centre-backs, with their pressing and ability to connect play both important in the system. Mubama still has work to do, but Murphy believes his development is moving in the right direction.

“He has shown signs of being able to link up play in different aspects as opposed to being just somebody who maybe has 15 touches in a game and the majority of them are in the six-yard box.

“That is definitely something I think his game can get better at, as he gets older and he becomes more aware and a more mature player in that aspect. But overall, I think the signs are positive.”

Manager Enzo Maresca labelled Divin Mubama “a good player”, and that“the only problem is [they] have so many players that we have already made many rotations and we struggled to find some minutes for him.” (Photo by Yu Chun Christopher Wong/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)

His pre-season form has only strengthened his case. Murphy believes the performances have allowed Mubama to move beyond being viewed simply as a promising prospect and eventually establish himself as a first-team player.

“I do think he has the opportunity now to go and cement himself and take that next step up from being a decent prospect with some first team experience to being a first team ready player, be that for a team like Southampton or Man City or anywhere else in between, it does feel like he’s got an opportunity now.”

That is ultimately the opportunity Southampton could offer.

Mubama already possesses several of the physical and technical traits required by Eckert’s system, but a season in which he can play regularly, learn from Larin and continue refining his movement, pressing and link-up play could allow him to reach another level in just his second senior campaign.