AFC Wimbledon will feel Notts County are easy play-off pickings - here's why | OneFootball

The Dons will fancy themselves against an opponent who they played extremely well against during the regular season

Despite a less-than-ideal finish to the season, AFC Wimbledon have perhaps bagged themselves their most favourable opponents in the form of Notts County.

The Dons should make easy pickings of the Magpies if performances and results from in-season games are anything to go by.

But with the play-offs being more of a lottery, can the side with the arguably better squad triumph over a team who are likely to be real underdogs over these upcoming two legs of the semi-finals?

In-season games have shown that Wimbledon are likely to dominate

Over the course of the 2024/25 season, the pair only faced each other in the league, but across the two games, it was clear to see that Wimbledon were the better of the two sides, even if results did not quite match that statement.

At Meadow Lane, County notched a 1-0 home win through a rather fortunate goal from a corner as the team from South West London created plenty but just could not finish their chances.

While at Plough Lane, the Dons asserted dominance through two early goals and did not look back, going on to create chances that could have seen the win stretch to more than 2-0 to the home side.

And through a brief look at some of the key stats from both of those games, it is clear to see that Jackson knows how to play well against this Notts side, and will therefore set up his team knowing they have what it takes to win.

But for all the positivity around the statistical side of things, there does also have to be a consideration for form and how that plays into this two-legged semi-final too.

Both sides became extremely patchy at the wrong time in 24/25, as with the end of the season getting ever-closer, and with multiple teams in the promotion race dropping points, neither could gain enough points or put together good runs of form to make the push for autos, even if Notts did still have a slim chance on the final day.

Looking into the last two months of this season, since the beginning of March, Wimbledon have only won four times, which includes the victory over County, but have lost six times and drawn the remaining four, with some of those draws coming from conceding last-minute goals to drop points.

Meanwhile, the Magpies have also won the same amount, but have drawn one less than Wimbledon, meaning they also have one more loss than their play-off opponents, and perhaps more crucially, that loss came on the final day, while the Dons won, perhaps even more crucially, away from home, giving them some momentum going into this first leg.

Ultimately, the trope "form goes out the window" will be used in a lot of build-up to this first leg on Saturday, but on paper, it does seem that Wimbledon, for once, are the favoured side and not the plucky underdogs.

AFC Wimbledon's squad seems more favoured than Notts County's

Away from form, statistics and everything else that many will focus on in the build up to this weekend's game, there should be time given to examine the quality of the squads, and why Wimbledon's is perhaps the better overall.

County do have exceptional talents, such as Jodi Jones and David McGoldrick to name just a couple, but overall, there is a feeling that the Dons' squad is much more complete.

To kick things off, the boys in yellow and blue have one of, if not, the best goalkeepers in League Two in Owen Goodman. Not only was the Crystal Palace loanee joint top of the clean sheet table with Colchester United's Matt Macey with 21 in total, but he also ranks as the best 'keepers in the division for goals prevented per game, with a table-topping 4.1 per game, according to FotMob.

Then, stepping out into defence, Joe Lewis has been a standout yet again for Wimbledon this campaign, proving why he is renowned as the best centre-half in the league. He has barely been beaten for pace this season by some of the division's fastest attackers, and even though his shorts are quite eye-catching, his leaps into the air have been too, with the defender performing very well aerially this season.

In midfield, though County have had the promising lights of Charlie Whitacker and George Abbot, they do not come clear to Jake Reeves and Alistair Smith. Wimbledon's midfield pair have been ranted and raved about for months by League Two fans online, and for good reason too. Reeves has shown just how much composure he can bring to a team's midfield, and Smith, with his Patrick Vieira-esque physique and play-style, has rightfully become feared by many teams, and become the eyre of many opposition fans.

Then finally, while it is perhaps the most contentious area by far, Wimbledon do have a deadlier striker in Matty Stevens. While the remainder of the Dons' forwards have been nowhere near his levels, he has shown that if the ball is given to him in the right areas, he will score goals aplenty. Whereas the Pies' main striker, Alassana Jatta, has perhaps fallen by the wayside a little in the last few months of the season.

He did ultimately end up with more goals than Stevens over the course of the entire campaign, with 19, compared to Stevens' 17, but when County have looked toothless in attack, he has been made to be the scapegoat, with fans online not happy with some of his downfalls, whereas Dons fans have appreciated the talent they know they have upfront, but know it is the team around him that are failing to make the most of his quality.

In truth, most things said before the first of these two legs for the play-off semi-finals will not really matter, as it is ultimately the team and the players who turn up and want more that will succeed, but if Wimbledon fans want to some worries pre-match eased, they can rest assured knowing that both form and quality mean they can make easy prey of Notts County.