After dream start: How likely is BVB's title win? | OneFootball

Borussia Dortmund have started with four wins, and their title chances have risen significantly in the Opta forecast. The supercomputer has calculated how likely the BVB are to win the championship.

Four matches, four wins: Borussia Dortmund have made a perfect start to the 2026/27 Bundesliga season. That is clearly reflected in the title forecast from data provider Opta. The supercomputer now gives BVB a 15.28 percent chance of winning the league. Before the season began, it was still at 8.7 percent.

However, the dream start does not make Niko Kovac’s team the favorites. Bayern Munich still clearly lead the calculations with 77.91 percent. The record champions’ figure has even risen slightly compared with the forecast before the first matchday. Dortmund have therefore nearly doubled their chances, but from the simulation’s point of view they remain outsiders in the title race.

Bayer Leverkusen follow behind the two clubs with 3.15 percent. For Leverkusen, that is a drop compared with the 5.0 percent before the season, even though they have collected seven points since their opening defeat. SC Freiburg stand at 1.89 percent. The club from Breisgau have slightly improved their title chances and, after their strong start, are also considered contenders for a Champions League place.

Despite the dream start: supercomputer still sees Bayern ahead of BVB

RB Leipzig, at 0.67 percent, and VfB Stuttgart, at 0.48 percent, are performing far worse than initially expected. At the bottom of the table, too, the Opta forecast paints a clear picture. Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin are still waiting for their first win after four matchdays. The supercomputer currently sees both in the bottom two places in the final table.

Photo: IMAGO

For Gladbach, the probability of direct relegation is put at 38.07 percent, and for Union at 31.46 percent. For Hamburger SV, despite the recent 2-1 win against Cologne, it still stands at 30.87 percent. The victory also brought HSV their first goals of the season.

The figures are based on 10,000 simulated season outcomes. After only four matchdays, individual results can still significantly alter the forecast. For Dortmund, however, it is still an encouraging interim verdict: BVB have established themselves as Bayern’s strongest challengers. Whether the strong start turns into a sustained title race will be shown over the coming weeks and months.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.