🏆 All or nothing: the final matchday on the road to the 2026 World Cup | OneFootball

The final matchday of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers is a crucible of tension and mathematics, with qualification hanging by a thread in multiple groups across Europe and CONCACAF. The complex combinations of results and goal differences promise an unforgettable end to the group stage.

🇪🇺 EUROPE. Excitement in Vienna and Glasgow and a Belgian mess

On the old continent, most of the spotlight is on the direct clashes that will determine the group leaders. The Scotland-Denmark and Austria-Bosnia and Herzegovina matches are finals.

Scotland can only qualify directly with a win against Denmark, while a draw favors the Danes. Similarly, Bosnia and Herzegovina is obliged to win in Vienna against Austria, who will secure their World Cup spot with a draw. These duels are the essence of "all or nothing."

On the other hand, nations like Spain (against Turkey) and Switzerland (against Kosovo) have their tickets virtually secured. Both countries need to avoid a defeat by a margin of six or more goals, a scenario considered a true pipe dream for their rivals.

The group with Belgium is the most tangled in terms of calculations. The Belgians, who face Liechtenstein, only need to win to go through. However, the chances for North Macedonia and Wales are mathematically remote and depend on big wins (by 7 and 11 goals, respectively) combined with a Belgian slip-up. The risk is low, but it forces the Belgians to stay focused.

🌎 CONCACAF. Half a continent on edge

The CONCACAF zone does not skimp on excitement, with three direct and playoff spots still up for grabs.

The battle between Suriname and Panama is the most intricate, as both can qualify for the World Cup. Suriname needs to win and for Panama not to, or if both win, for the goal difference to favor them. Panama has the advantage, qualifying if they win and Suriname does not, or if they win by a margin of four more goals than their Caribbean rival.

The second direct spot up for grabs pits Jamaica and Curaçao in a head-to-head clash. Here, the math is simpler: only a win will do for Jamaica to advance, while Curaçao can even afford a draw to seal their qualification.

Finally, the group with Honduras, Haiti, and Costa Rica will be decided at the last minute. Honduras needs to win and for Haiti not to. Haiti is in a similar situation, needing to win by a margin of two more goals than Honduras if both win. Lastly, Costa Rica only keeps hope alive with a win of their own and for Haiti not to win. The standings will deliver the verdict in one of the most open qualifiers.

🌏 ASIA. Do or die in Iraq

The spotlight is also on the Middle East, where the final step of the Asian qualifying process is being played. Iraq hosts United Arab Emirates in Basra in the second leg of the continental playoff. After a draw (1-1) in the first leg, everything is still open. If the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, extra time and penalties will decide the outcome, and the winner will advance to the intercontinental playoff in March.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.

📸 ARIS MARTINEZ - AFP or licensors