Analysis: How Portugal squeezed past Croatia to reach the round of 16 | OneFootball

A 94th-minute headed winner by Goncalo Ramos saved Portugal from extra time to reach the round of 16 of the World Cup, with the help of Croatia’s equalizer in the 103rd being ruled out for a controversial offside call.

In what was a fluctuating performance from the 2024/25 Nations League winners, they found a way to get the job done, but will surely need to improve if they hope to progress far in this competition.

FromTheSpot takes a look at how Portugal got it right, what proved to be tricky for them, and ultimately what they’ll need to refine before they face European champions Spain in Dallas next Monday.

Portugal’s success down the left

After short cameos in their group stage matches, Rafael Leao found himself in the starting lineup. A decision that proved to be a nightmare for the Croatian defence.

Portugal’s struggle to break down the low block of Croatia put a spotlight on the wide channels, in hopes that they could find a way to deliver.

The result of this was excellent link-up play between the left side of Nuno Mendes and Rafael Leao, with inverted runs from Mendes freeing up space for Leao to get crosses into the box that were rarely met.

Smart runs and passes to match it saw Mendes and Leao get the better of Croatia’s Stanisic time and time again.

Despite a subdued second half and huge improvement from Stanisic, Portugal’s left side managed to find opportunities with Leao hitting the crossbar and crossing in the 94th minute to Goncalo Ramos, whose headed effort sealed the game.

Martinez gets it right

Leao’s involvement in the team turned out to be an excellent decision by Portugal boss Roberto Martinez, a theme that persisted throughout the game: decisions that won his side the tie.

After a fairly dominant first half, Portugal found themselves behind in the second half due to a strike from Ivan Perisic, and changes needed to be made.

Martinez’s reactive changes early, and his decision to keep Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch despite a poor showing set Portugal up for a change in system, with Ronaldo and Ramos finding themselves playing up top together.

It was a key decision that kept Portugal in the game, courtesy of a penalty converted by Ronaldo.

Croatia’s continued domination in the second half forced Martinez into the bold substitution of Cristiano Ronaldo.

But this allowed Portugal to revert to the style that brought them joy in the first half, with the control of wide positions finding them the goal by substitute Ramos and clinching the win.

In close ties, especially if the pressure is piling on you, brave decisions are needed to change the tide. A truth that Martinez got spot on.

The Ronaldo dilemma

Coming into this tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo’s ability to lead the line at 41 years old was put into question, and the subsequent performance levels have certainly been criticised.

Managing two goals in a 5-0 thumping of Uzbekistan was the extent of his contribution in the three group-stage games he started, offering little in the majority of open play.

By all means, his contribution against Croatia seemed to be going in this direction as well. He managed just 25 touches throughout the game, completing 21 passes through first-time passes that didn’t progress the play.

An offside goal showed how clinical he is in front of goal, but against Croatia’s low block, he really struggled to find his way in the game.

A converted penalty saw him score his first World Cup knockout stage goal, proving that he is still a big game player when Portugal needed an answer.

Portugal face a dilemma in the Round of 16 against Spain if they want to sacrifice fluidity up top for the inevitability of a big moment by Ronaldo.

Defensive woes spell trouble against Spain

With a Round of 16 tie against Spain looming, the Portuguese will have to improve defensively if they are to stand a chance.

It looked as if Portugal had it figured out with their high press and attempts to box the Croatians in, but finding their way out allowed the opposition to get balls in behind as the Portuguese defensive line was so high.

This was clear in the event of a Croatia counter-attack, with players scrambling to get back in hopes of nullifying any goal attempts.

A lapse in concentration from Joao Cancelo allowed Perisic to get his goal as Croatia relentlessly attacked in the second half, and key saves by Diogo Costa really kept Portugal in the game as they were seriously in danger of conceding multiple goals.

If Portugal insist on playing a high press on Spain in the Round of 16, they may find themselves in trouble with the ability of Spain’s midfield to play between the lines and get out of high-pressure situations.

Portugal found a way to win the match, but it’s clear to see that there needs to be major improvements defensively if they’re to get a result against one of the favourites for the tournament, Spain, in the round of 16.

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