Analysis: Numbers suggest Brentford deserved more from Chelsea defeat | OneFootball

Liam Rosenior scooped up three points on his Premier League bow as a head coach - but the underlying numbers from Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Brentford suggest the contest could have swung the other way.

After guiding the Blues through a couple of cup ties, Enzo Maresca’s successor chalked up his first league win, courtesy of João Pedro’s 26th-minute opener and a Cole Palmer penalty after the break.

Brentford made the short trip back to TW8 empty-handed after the defeat, but head coach Keith Andrews said afterwards that he was “proud” of the Bees’ performance - and it wasn’t hard to see why.

Back in September, Brentford spent much of the reverse fixture on the back foot in a 2-2 draw. At Stamford Bridge, they were far more dominant.

In the previous meeting, the Bees had to settle for just 33 per cent possession and withstood 16 shots at their goal; here, they enjoyed 54 per cent of the ball and fired 15 efforts of their own at Robert Sánchez.

In a game decided by fine margins, Chelsea’s opener only stood after VAR correctly overturned an offside flag against Pedro, while Palmer’s second-half spot-kick followed some confusion between Brentford captain Nathan Collins and goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher.

At the other end, the Bees were left to rue a handful of chances - not least Mathias Jensen striking the base of the post in the first half, and a Kevin Schade effort in the second that was diverted wide by Sánchez’s outstretched foot.

To linger for a moment on Jensen’s narrow miss, Brentford have been among the Premier League’s unluckiest teams when it comes to striking the woodwork, hitting it seven times in the league and twice during the FA Cup win over Sheffield Wednesday.

Andrews’ post-match disappointment was tempered by the “courage and conviction” shown by his side: Brentford generated 1.65 expected goals to Chelsea’s 1.68, and their underlying data was encouraging. 

One of only six teams to generate an overall xG above 40 this season, the Bees (40.09) are consistently creating high-quality opportunities - and Vitaly Janelt and Mikkel Damsgaard were key in that regard on Saturday.

Fresh from penning a new Brentford deal, Janelt was once again imperious. Up against Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández - arguably the best midfield pairing in the Premier League - the German finished the afternoon with the best pass completion rate (95 per cent) and the most key passes (five) of any player on the pitch.

Damsgaard was also influential, with the Dane’s ability to inject tempo into Brentford’s game evident when he combined superbly with Igor Thiago to release Schade in the first half.

On that occasion, Schade turned Trevoh Chalobah inside out, but passed up the shot to try to tee up Damsgaard.

It was one of a number of sliding-doors moments during what skipper Collins labelled an ultimately "frustrating" afternoon.

If the Bees can bottle the composure, aggression and attacking threat they showed at Stamford Bridge, however, they are very likely to cause Nottingham Forest problems at Gtech Community Stadium next weekend.