Arsenal having a ‘dark horse’ in Golden Boot race isn’t as absurd as it sounds | OneFootball

Competing with Erling Haaland for the Premier League Golden Boot is a fool’s errand at this point. He’s won it in three of his four seasons at Manchester City; only Mohamed Salah at the very peak of his powers has denied him.

But Danny Murphy picking Kai Havertz as a “dark horse” behind a slightly lighter stallion in Joao Pedro may not be quite as daft as it seems.

“I think Joao Pedro is his main threat to Erling Haaland because of all the qualities he’s got and, more importantly, who’s feeding him,” former England midfielder Murphy said.

“When you’ve got Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers feeding him every week, if they stay fit and aren’t in Europe playing one game a week, he’s going to get chances, that’s for sure.

“I still think even if he has a brilliant season he’ll fall behind Haaland, because Haaland’s got this wonderful ability to score all types of scrappy goals even when he’s not playing well or looks a little bit out of the game.

“He somehow finds a way of scoring. It’s ridiculous and incredible what he’s doing.

“The other dark horse, if he stays fit, might be Havertz, not necessarily to catch Haaland, but to be in the top three or four, because Havertz is a calm finisher.

“If he stays fit Arsenal are going to get him chances, plus he’s brilliant in the air. I think he could be up there pushing behind Haaland, because if Arsenal keep dominating and winning games like they do, and he looks fit, he’s going to score loads of goals.”

On the surface, suggesting Havertz has any hope of getting close to Haaland is absurd. He has scored a measly 45 goals in 168 Premier League games; 26 in 77 for Arsenal.

He got 13 in his best season in England and even in the best of his career – 2018/19 at Bayer Leverkusen – he only scored 17 league goals. A very good footballer – no doubt – but a top goalscorer? Nah.

But as Murphy says, he is a good finisher.

In his first two seasons at Arsenal, before his injury-ravaged third, Havertz over-performed his xG by +0.06. While not as good as Haaland’s +0.89 total across his four seasons at Man City, the difference is close to negligible.

And crucially, Havertz looks set to for a season as Arsenal’s first-choice striker ahead of Viktor Gyokerers if – and it is a big if after he pulled up with a hamstring injury during the international break – he can stay fit.

Upon arriving at Arsenal, Havertz was used in an attacking midfield role by Mikel Arteta, before the Gunners boss admitted defeat and accepted his best position as the furthest forward in his formation. In the 12 games he played as a centre-forward in that debut season, he scored eight goals.

Injury kept him out of almost half the Premier League games in his second season before he started just seven last term, ruling out the possibility of him racking up decent numbers.

In what are now the perfect conditions for him to score goals, as the main man up top in a team that creates a lot of chances and is seemingly suited to his style, Havertz could indeed push his own envelope, if not rival the freak who will inevitably ease his way to another Golden Boot.