Arsenal joined by Chelsea, Aston Villa and Brentford in ‘bottling it’ this season | OneFootball

Should Arsenal earn their own ‘Spursy’ tag if they bottle another Premier League title? Does ‘Arsy’ work?

There is plenty title race debate in the Sunday morning Mailbox. There are also some bits on Chelsea’s ownership and Liverpool.

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Arsenal v Man City

The league cup final used to be around now and I read in the mailbox that if Arsenal should lose this 1st v 2nd early final they’ll not recover and lose the league too.

When the semi finals came in to view , the competition looked like a gimme for the gunners as they were so coherent and had a riposte for any obstacle in their path .

Of course , that form can return and they may well be riding the crest of another wave when the Wembley game comes round but I cannot necessarily see that by losing said final that’ll somehow derail their ability to get over the line in the league .

What I have repeatedly said is that clubs, namel AFC,  really ought to be prioritising , as the Argyle proved last season for Slot.

From Nov/Dec all of Arsenal’s ‘leaders’ could have agreed , “one focus – become champions of England . Play the second string in all other comps – once we are Champions we broaden our horizons” .

More than any logic , this strategy reflects the stupid amount of injuries that all top clubs have been facing for some time .

Barcelona for example are absolutely knackered and face a poor season in the end, wheras when they narrowly lost to Inter I had them down as champions league favourites this season .

Lamine Yamal is being irresponsibly overplayed and faces an Ansu Fati style burn out . Pedri and Gavi are like ‘the tampon’ one week in three weeks out nickname that Harry Kewell had at Liverpool .

In the face of all the evidence that strongly suggests this Arsenal blip is down to exhaustion, that has not been the ‘noise’.

Alas, perhaps it’ll take another preposterous club world cup for the players to get their unions to strike / cancel something . Perhaps ‘they’ can find an even hotter venue than the US ! Currently Qatar, Spain & Morocco are jostling for 115 degree Fahrenheit fun. Peter. ( mock tudor derby)  Andalucia .

Jason Soutar – trying to get Arteta sacked for clicks

I’ve written in a couple of times in the same topic. The e-mail that was published had a snarky little comment from the editor included.

To rehash,  this once great site that I’ve followed for 20+ years, is now focussed on negativity, primarily trying to get managers sacked. A never ending compilation of “who’s going to get sacked next?” and “who’s next in line to replace x?”. Lazy, lazy “journalism”.

Not an Arsenal fan (Manchester United), but last time I checked Arsenal were 5 points clear, having played 1 game extra. Apparently it’s now “City’s to lose” and Arteta should be sacked if Arsenal aren’t champions? Should all managers of the other bigger clubs be sacked every season for failing to win? Slot has been in the firing line for months, despite having won the title in his first season.  Ridiculous.

Jason Souttar’s article was a microcosm of 365 these days; little analysis of matches or tactics, just knee-jerk responses which change on a weekly basis. Click bait.

At the start of the season it was ” Emery out” as Villa made a slow start. Where are they now? Lucky the Villa board have a bit more patience and maturity.

Postecoglu was witch hunted the second he hit the City Ground. Within 3 games there was the building of the narrative that he should be gone. 3 games over the course of little more than a week if I recall. No time to get across his ideas. “Ange next to be sacked? Here are his top 6 replacements”. You’ve decided he’s to be one of your punching bags, someone who knows more about football than your whole team combined. Interesting that when Dyche came in he was lauded for going back to basics. Ange bad, Dyche good. How did that go?

Should City not win I expect a heap of “Should Pep be sacked?”, ” top 7 candidates to replace Pep” articles. Of course included in the 7 will be the names Arteta and Postecoglu… Adam Whitemore

Arsy?

If Arsenal fail to win any trophy this season, would that be the ultimate in Spursiness? Or would we have to introduce the term “Arsy” into the vernacular? Adidasmufc

Bottlers galore

So, applying the current trend, at 5pm on Saturday;

Villa bottled the PL title, Chelsea are bottling CL qualification and, Brentford are bottling European qualification.

Just saying. Ken Charlatan Ard Mhacha

Chelsea disappoint again

Things have been improving on the pitch since Maresca left, I like Rosenior a lot.

Off the pitch however the board continue to be a shower.

After 3 years they finally get a front of shirt sponsor and it’s for some bs AI company. Brilliant. Great. Will

Minutes played really matters

Watching all of this “bottlejobs” talk on Arsenal is really funny, but I’ve watched the last three seasons wondering if I’m the only one who thinks the reason Arsenal always fall flat in the final third of the season is fairly obvious, that Arteta just flat out overworks his players?

Some stats for you, already this year, Arsenal have three players with over 2,000 minutes (Rice, Timber, Zubimendi) to City’s one (Rodri) and there’s a clear difference across their most used 11 players of about 200 minutes, in other words, the big players for Arsenal have all played over two games more then those for City. A lot of that is because Pep tends to take off big players at the 60 minute mark if the game is won, wheras Arteta simply never does. Rice & Zubimendi particularly have over 90% of all available minutes. Arteta won’t use anyone else in the pivot unless forced to, so expect one of those two to pick up an injury by the end of the season.

Guardiola shares the minutes across a lot more players and benches a player if they seem tired, which is probably why they get so many fewer muscle & knee injuries.

This pattern seems consistent every year, Arsenal are amazing in the first half of the season and then start to lose it around now, probably because they’re so much more tired then the teams around them. Perhaps it’s as much about exhaustion as “bottling”?

Genuinely interested if anyone else has seen this?

Steve  THFC Cheer up Arsenal fans, it could be worse!!

Crowbarring Scouse maths into the Arsenal bottling chat

Incredible work by Rob, clearly a Liverpool fan, in Friday’s mailbox. You guys put his 2 submissions in directly below Minty’s to stitch them up, didn’t you? Minty’s letter made a good point about Arteta being the type of general who inspires fear in his troops, translating that logic really nicely to Arsenal’s recent struggles as the run-in looms.

Then fellow Pool fan Rob tramples in and demonstrates that as ever, no matter what the context, Liverpool iz da greatest and every conversation should be subverted to highlight this. The genius concept of Arsenal needing to amass enough points to win the league, concocted in a lab with his chemistry starter kit, signalled that something special this way came. Clearly, someone had done their research…

…by leading ChatGPT up the garden path via an inane set of directives, with the express purpose of glorifying Liverpool’s last 2 league wins. That’s not “thanks to ChatGPT” mate, that’s entirely thanks to YOU and the narrative you forced it to chase down.

Rob’s “objective” measure flatly assumes the outcome of dozens of matches over a 10 year period, handing 3 points to the champions in every single one of them, and then collates a table that magically has Liverpool’s 19/20 champions coming out on top. Clearly a far superior team to City’s 22/23 treble winners, or the City team that ACTUALLY amassed 100 points on football pitches instead of on your computer screen.

To adapt the usefulness of the ChatGPT query somewhat, why not ask the AI how champions have performed in the 30 games after they clinched the league? I think you’ll find that Liverpool have put up a couple of miserable title defences, and that real life football fans measure the greatness of a side based on repeated successes and trophy hauls over a 3-5 year period. Seems to me that “objectively the best team ever” would make a better job of being super amazeballs the next season, no? Wouldn’t they still be great at that point?

Also, the failure to win the title in 2013/14 was indisputably a bottle job. Taking 4 points from the final 9 when you have 3 winnable games to get over the line is classic bottling – the turn of events to get you into that position is irrelevant. If Villa win the next 9 in a row and sit top only to then mess it all up, they won’t be spared that label either. Keith Reilly

Unhappy Arsenal fan, but…

As an Arsenal fan I am not happy with the sudden turn of events on the pitch.

This title was ours to loose from the word go considering the champions Liverpool have been poor while Manchester City took time to hit form.

However, I disagree with the kneejerk reaction of “the coach must go” because history tells us decisions such as this made in a hurry or in a reactionary manner aren’t the best.

I refer to the way the fans hounded Arsene Wenger out of the club yet when you analyse deeply he wasn’t the problem, our problem was underinvestment in the playing unit which of course was caused by the debts for the new stadium. I believe with the current resources Arsene would have delivered a trophy if not trophies.

We have also seen teams react and sack good coaches and they end up replacing them with poor ones. Ken Butiko

Arsenal and Liverpool

This has been a fascinating season that I have by turns hated and loved.  I’ve hated it because  Liverpool are bad and worse than that have played unattractive football.  I’ve loved it because the quality of the lower three quarters of the league.  I’ve also loved it because for the first time the top six are all genuinely different in interesting ways.  I’m going to write about Liverpool and Arsenal now, and a bit about Villa, but City, United and Chelsea are also worth a proper email and I don’t want my focus on the clubs I understand best to suggest that what the others are doing is less interesting.  Villa might genuinely be the club about to show the way forward to the rest of the league, whereas Liverpool and Arsenal I think are both wrong, but in fascinating ways.

The Past To set the scene, at the height of the Pep/Klopp rivalry there was only one real way to play if you wanted to win the title or champions league – press.  90 points was the bare minimum and you might well need more.  You could no longer accept draws against decent teams that turtled, and you had to work incredibly hard every game.  You created goals by pressing every player every time they got the ball and scoring when someone inevitably made a mistake.  You defended by preventing anyone passing or receiving the ball uncontested.  Teams were forces to drop deep to protect their non-ball-playing players, but this meant every turnover was a chance to score.  These systems were incredibly hard on the players and coaches, and only available to the richest clubs who could afford enough players with the obvious elite traits required to make it work.

The Present Like all systems in football, other teams figured it out.  The end of the Pep/Klopp reign was not either of them walking into the sunset having completed football, it was an emergence of an enormous middle class in the PL who had mastered dropping even deeper.  They were no longer being suffocated by unmanageable pressure, they were now baiting these high presses ever higher up the pitch, so that when they forced a turnover there was too much pitch for even the elite defenders and sweeper keepers to cover.  The big teams were now implementing their systems how they wanted, but instead of getting domination, they were giving up multiple huge chances to counter attacks.  Bournmouth in particular are absolute masters of this, but Brentford, Brighton, Palace and Forest have all put in at least a couple of seasons of beating the big boys in structured, controlled ways.

As a result, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have pivoted in different ways.  City are (I think) the outlier in that they’re persisted with Pep and his system, and backed their scouting and money to maintain their levels, but I’d be interested to hear City fan’s thoughts about how new City differ from the de Bruyne teams.

Arsenal Arsenal/Arteta were the first of the rich teams to move away from using the press to generate their goals, and I commend them for that.  They realised that 95 points isn’t really achieveable any more, so a reliable 90 point system would win titles.  Arsenal still press, but to reclaim controlled possession and prevent chances rather than to create chances for themselves.  As the PL middle class have started to prioritise defenders who can survive pressing and put great balls over the top, they’ve moved away from size.  Arteta has exploited that mercilessly.  His Arsenal generate a lot of chances from corners and crosses, don’t over-commit up the pitch and have completely cut off lesser team’s access to set piece goals, which used to be the best way to nick a result against the big boys.  They therefore win a lot of games 1 or 2 nil where the opposition haven’t had even a sniff.

But.  But but but.  Football is a game of bullshit sometimes, and sometimes someone hits a worldie or the ball goes in off a defenders arse.  For the old Liverpool and City teams, that was fine, they scored goals in buckets, expected to concede a few and could easily dial up the risky plays to chase a vital winner.  Too often for Arsenal it’s not fixable.  There’s only so many corners you can win, and they don’t have a way to generate high danger chances.  It’s possible that Arteta’s system’s expected output is 85 points and 89 was the high water.  If they win this season, all is forgiven, Arteta is a visionary and well deserved winner.  If they don’t, the Arsenal board have an impossible decision.

Liverpool Liverpool responded to the solving of the Klopp/Pep system differently, they attempted to adapt Leverkusen’s system to the PL.  As a side note, they started this in earnest the middle of last year – the first half of the season that won them the title was Slot accepting several gift horses when teams assumed Liverpool would be vulnerable, tried to attack them instead of sit deep and got mercilessly counter-attacked.  I give him full credit for this, the PL is littered with the ruined careers of coaches hellbent on implementing “their system” while ignoring the opponent in front of them

Leverkusen.  Instead of creation from stealing the ball in the press and moving it very quickly, Leverkusen created goals by having attackers advance the ball up to the defensive press and then having two or three players play in very small triangles to create a switch or passed player who could immediately dribble at an unprotected centre half who’d have to choose between switching off the striker to close out or just letting the attacker shoot unimpeded.  A great system that won them a title and stark contrast to jogo de possession where maintaining space between attackers to spread out the defenders was key.

The problem here is that the Bundesliga is not the PL.  German clubs don’t press as high, so teams don’t have to drop so deep.  Leverkusen created their overloads and passed players on the outside parts of the pitch roughly halfway between the halfway line and the penalty box, so when you did create the passed player, they had space to dribble at a static centre half who was ten yards away or space to drive to the byline and cross.  In the PL, midfields (intentionally) drop so deep that the moment you’ve manufactured your passed player the centre half is on top of them and they’re so close to the goal line that there’s no way to cross uncontested.  All that work for no reward.

The other issue is that you now have three players up doing fancy triangles in a small space on the edge of the pitch level with the box.  It’s usually that winger, the no10 and one other.  If it’s the striker, you get what we see a lot with Liverpool this year, a small line break but no-one in the box to occupy the centre back or threaten the goal.  If it’s the fullback, they’re now horribly far up the pitch, and the moment you lose possession there will be an immediate swift ball down their channel.  The same swift ball that teams have spent ten years mastering to beat Pepball.

Liverpool’s board are left with the same awful choice as Arsenal’s but with no possibility of a title bailing them out.  Everyone wants them to sack Slot and hire Alonso, but if the system is the problem then Alonso won’t fix anything and they risk having to pay to fire Slot and Alonso and waste another year on a busted system.

The Future (is claret and blue) So what we’ve learned is that Pepball is losing its power and neither of the big boys attempts to move past it have truly worked.

To restate the main thesis of this mail – middle class PL teams are now so good at sitting deep, baiting presses and counter attacking that Pepball, Slotball and Artetaball don’t reliably produce enough goals to overcome the weaknesses in their systems.

Enter Unai Emery, Villa and my much more tenuous hypothesis for the next evolution of the PL. How do you score when there are ten well drilled men in two lines on the edge of the box, waiting for you to lose the ball so they can spring their trap?

Bangers.  Worldies.  Thunderbastards.  Golazos.  Get really good at hitting the ball from 30 yards.

People criticise Villa for relying on these low xg shots, but I contend that xg is lying to us a little here.  Xg describes the outcomes for all the shots taken from that spot on the pitch.  The plces Villa are shooting from have previously been the domain of overexcited centre halfs and desperation heaves, while the expensive teams with the “best” players have generally frowned on those shots.  I therefore think xg underrates the chances of an expert long range shooter taking an uncontested 30 yarder.  It’s clearly working for Villa!

Interestingly, all of Liverpool, Arsenal and City are starting to emulate it whether by accident or design – look at the success of Szoboslai, Cherki and Rice’s goals.  I am sad that Villa’s comparative lack of financial muscle means they couldn’t sustain a title challenge, they deserve one for showing everyone another way forward that is easier on the eye than Artetaball.

I am also hopeful that if teams do lean into long range shooting, it may be the thing that forces teams out of their defensive boxes and leads to more goals, both worldies and well constructed passing football.  Defenders will have to dive out of their lines to contest the bombs, and attackers won’t get drawn so far up the pitch so counter attacking will be less effective.

In conclusion – put your foot through it son, it’s the future.

Apologies Chelsea and United fans, I’ve not watched enough of either to really talk about what they’re trying to do and why.