Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League? | OneFootball

Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League? | OneFootball

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·31 January 2025

Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League?

Article image:Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League?

The Gunners were Manchester City‘s closest Premier League title challengers in the last two seasons. Yet even now that Pep Guardiola’s men have finally fallen off, they’re second again. This time to Liverpool.

Arne Slot’s men have outscored Arsenal 54-44 so far this season, creating a +10 lead on goal difference with both teams having conceded 21 times.


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Arsenal have underperformed their Expected Goals in a number of somewhat recent games, including in a 0-0 draw against Everton and a 1-0 win over Ipswich. That habit has been particularly costly in the cups, with Arsenal generating 3.14 xG in the FA Cup against Man Utd and 3.22 xG in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Newcastle, only to score one goal combined — losing 2-0 against Newcastle and going out on penalties to Man United.

Kai Havertz has been doing his best as a converted No.9 but isn’t a natural, while Gabriel Jesus has blown hot and cold at best during his time at the Emirates.

The feeling was that Arsenal just will not turn silver into gold and end their long title drought without serious investment at centre-forward. And last week Arteta confirmed Arsenal are working on the signing of a goalscorer “that makes [Arsenal] better and has an impact in the team.”

Clinical ability is clearly what the team lack. So which possible January signings would bring that to Arsenal?

The picks below stood out because they rate strongly for open-play goals, shot placement ratio, expected goals on target and conversion rate, so here are some definitions for those:

  1. Conversion rate: The percentage of player’s shots that result in goals. The average across all Premier League forwards who have taken 10 shots or more this season is 14%.
  2. Expected goals (xG): A measure of the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored, using information on similar shots in the past.
  3. Expected goals on target (xGOT): A measure of the likelihood that an on-target shot will result in a goal, based on the combination of the underlying chance quality (xG) and the end location of the shot within the goalmouth. Shots that end up in the corners than shots receive higher ratings, as opposed to those that go straight down the middle of the goal.
  4. Shot placement ratio (SPR): The ratio of expected goals to expected goals on target (i.e. 2.0 means expected goals on target are double the value of expected goals).

Dream: Ollie Watkins

Article image:Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League?

Arsenal have reportedly already had a bid of £45m for Ollie Watkins rejected, as Aston Villa value the England international at a whopping £80m, for good reason too.

Watkins has scored 10 goals and five assists in the Premier League this season. He has managed the fourth-most goal contributions of any striker in the division, while his assist tally is the joint-most of anyone in his position.

He is coming off a 2023-24 campaign which saw him log 19 goals and 13 assists in the league – the most goal contributions in one season by any Villa player ever.

A multi-faceted threat in the final third, the 29-year-old has scored the third-most headed goals in the Premier League this season (3). He has also accumulated 2.16 Expected Goals from set-pieces, the fourth-highest in the league, which makes him a particularly enticing addition to an Arsenal side who are lethal from dead-ball situations.

Squawka suggests: Benjamin Sesko this summer

Benjamin Sesko is also thought to be one of Arsenal’s top targets, having opted to stay at RB Leipzig last summer.

Since the start of last season alone, Sesko has netted 22 goals in 48 Bundesliga appearances, maintaining a 28.21% conversion rate from 78 shots and scoring 22 non-penalty goals from 11.99 expected goals on target. His shot placement ratio is 1.19 and right on the cusp of the elite, as the division’s sixth-best ratio among regularly playing strikers.

Sesko’s goal return over the past season-and-a-half goes up to 31 when all competitions are factored in, with his unique blend of speed, strength and size proving an absolute nightmare for defences in Germany and beyond.

Realistic: Yoane Wissa

Article image:Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League?

Yoane Wissa has been in stunning form once again this season, with only six players scoring more than his 11 Premier League goals so far. That leaves him just one behind what was an already very respectable total of 12 last season, only this time, he’s played just 18 games to reach 11 rather than 34 to hit 12.

Only Brentford teammate Bryan Mbeumo (34.21%) has a better conversion rate than Wissa (26.19%) this season, while he’s augmented his goalscoring prowess with five assists over the year-and-a-half of Premier League football.

Wissa has just 18 months left on his Brentford contract, meaning he will cost significantly less than the options mentioned above. The Telegraph recently reported that Arsenal will go head-to-head with Nottingham Forest in a battle to secure the services of the DR Congo international.

Squawka suggests: Jonathan David

LOSC Lille’s Jonathan David is a name regularly linked with Arsenal, among a host of other European giants. There’s a good reason for that, with the Canadian posting the highest conversion rate in Ligue 1 among regularly starting strikers since the start of last season (26.3%) – scoring 30 Ligue 1 goals during that time and 43 goals across all competitions.

Most promisingly, David’s contract at Lille expires this summer, with the main barrier right now looking like the sheer level of competition Arsenal would face to secure his signature.

In light of this, Ligue 1’s joint-second top goalscorer would likely be available for a cut price, as Lille would rather lose David for little money rather than have him leave as a free agent in the summer.

Wildcard: Ricardo Pepi or Mathys Tel this summer

Article image:Arsenal transfers: Could one of these clinical striker signings win Arteta the Premier League?

By contrast to Jovic, Ricardo Pepi cannot stop scoring right now. The USA international has netted 15 times in just 936 minutes across all competitions for PSV this season, including 10 in the Eredivisie to sit behind only Sem Steijn (15) in the Golden Boot race.

Pepi has the highest conversion rate of any Eredivisie striker since the start of last season at 26.98%, while he averages the most non-penalty shots on target (3.01) in that group and is the only one to average 1.04 non-penalty xGOT.

Still only 22, Pepi is becoming a hot commodity and is highly thought of in England. He could be a great project for Mikel Arteta.

Another wildcard option could be Mathys Tel, with multiple Premier League clubs thought to be vying over the Bayern Munich forward’s signature. Tottenham Hotspur have reportedly bid £50m for him, while Arsenal, Man United and Chelsea maintain an interest in him.

Tel wants to leave Munich, according to Bayern’s sporting director, meaning a move to Arsenal is not off the cards considering he has been earmarked with a move to a plethora of clubs.

At 19 years old, Tel would be a signing for the future, as his current numbers are not eyecatchingly impressive. He is yet to score for Bayern this season, but has show bright signs in the past.

He has logged 0.36 open play assists per 90, the sixth-most in the Bundesliga, and is coming off a season where he logged seven goals and five assists in Germany’s top flight.

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