Arsenal v Chelsea: Back Gunners and 16/5 Rice assist in semi-final | OneFootball

EFL Cup Tips

Paul Higham is backing the Gunners to book their place at Wembley

Paul Higham is backing Arsenal to reach Wembley, with goals expected at the Emirates, as well as a Gunners midfielder to assist and a Blues defender to collect a card.

Arsenal v ChelseaTuesday 3 February, 20:00 kick-offLive on Sky Sports & ITV

It's advantage Arsenal thanks to their 3-2 win at Stamford Bridge in the first leg, but this tie is far from over as Liam Rosenior's side battled hard in the first leg to keep things close and again showed some character at the weekend to come from 2-0 down to beat West Ham.

Mikel Arteta has bigger fish to fry, with the Premier League title race, but having won nothing since the 2020 FA Cup getting that elusive trophy in the cabinet could help to open the floodgates. He doesn't want a repeat of last year's semi-final defeat to Newcastle.

The Gunners are 1/14 to make it through to Wembley, with Chelsea 6/1 to upset the odds - but Rosenior's Blues do seem to have that fighting spirit, also earning a 3-2 comeback win at Napoli last week while they've scored three goals in each of their three successive away victories.

They're 18/5 to win the match in 90 minutes at the Emirates, where the 4/6 hosts have failed to win in the last two. A draw here mightn't be the worst shout in the world though at 3/1 - as that's all Arsenal need and they're pretty good at shutting up shop under Arteta.

Chelsea's big problem is their recent form against the Gunners which reads no win in nine (L6 D3) and a 9-1 aggregate score in three straight defeats at the Emirates. 

It's only a one-goal deficit so there's no urgent need for Chelsea go gung-ho from kick-off, and likewise we all know Arteta's preferred game plan will be to sit and wait for a mistake from the visitors (or yet another goal from a corner!) so I wouldn't expect too much early mayhem.

So the half-time draw appeals at 13/10 as a side bet, with the potential for it all to kick-off in the second-half. Chelsea have decent attacking options, Rosenior isn't scared to change things around and they've been prolific recent scorers on the road.

I'll back Chelsea to score but, with Arsenal holding all the aces, I think the hosts will actually end up winning this game as well as the tie.

Back Rice to serve up a goal at 16/5

Team news will be interesting here. Bukayo Saka was hurt in the warm-up at Leeds so you wouldn't expect him to be risked, especially with Noni Madueke a ready made replacement.

Joao Pedro scored at the Emirates for Brighton last season and made an impact off the bench against West Ham so at 3/1 anytime goalscorer he'd be the pick for Chelsea.

Watch out for 7/2 shot Alejandro Garnacho though, as he came off the bench and scored twice at the Bridge in the first leg - I don't think he'll start but he's one to look at for in-play betting.

You always have to be aware of a possible Gabriel goal at 11/2, given Arsenal's main route to goal is set-pieces, and since I think they'll lean on those here then player props preference is for a Declan Rice assist at 16/5.

Declan Rice

23 appearances for Arsenal this season Goals 4 Assists 3 Shots 32 Shots per 90 1.5 Shots on Target 12 Shots on Target per 90 0.5 Chances Created 44 Chances Created per 90 2 Passes 1369 Passes per 90 62.6 Yellow Cards 2 Red Cards 0

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He got one of his eight assists this season in the first leg and, with three league assists against the Blues, they're his second best opponent in the Premier League (Palace - 4) so conditions are to suit here.

Viktor Gyokeres is in decent scoring form, the big lads at the back are dangerous at set pieces and Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus present more scoring options, so it's more dificult to pick out who will finish things off. But Rice is a good bet to supply the bullets.

Count on a card for Cucurella

Let's face it, Marc Cucurella is one of the more annoying players for opposition fans - he's just one of those prone to a spot of diving, niggly fouls, always in the ref's face etc, but at least he's consistent.

He's genuinely one of those players who could cause an argument in an empty house.

He obviously doesn't like playing against Arsenal either as he's been booked in five of his previous nine appearances against the Gunners including both games this season. At the Emirates in the semi-final he just has to be top of your list to be booked at 21/10.

We've had 15 yellow cards and one red in the two meetings between these sides this season - Arsenal have had 10 bookings and Chelsea five, with the Moises Caicedo red card in the 1-1 league draw.

So there's the potential for the ref to be a busy man on Tuesday and the 10/3 on both sides to see 3+ cards makes a lot of sense.

Caicedo at 9/5 and Enzo Fernandes at 13/5 are the other big options for Chelsea, but I'll stick with their Spanish left-back to have his name taken again to complete the hat-trick against Arsenal this season.

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