Aston Villa’s rebirth: From crisis to contention, but can it last? | OneFootball

For a brief and turbulent spell at the start of the season, it appeared as though Aston Villa’s rise under Unai Emery, which had seen the club reach the European spots three years in a row,  had reached its zenith. Four Premier League matches passed without a goal, five without a victory, and the uneasy murmurings around Villa Park grew into something close to agitation. After nearly three years of steady progress, some supporters began to question whether the Emery project had reached its ceiling.

Those doubts have since faded. Seven wins from the past eight matches have pushed Villa up to fourth after 13 games, level on points with Chelsea, widely deemed genuine title contenders. From a side searching for its first league goal in mid-September, Villa have accelerated back into the top-four conversation.

Scrappy wins: effective, opportunistic, unconvincing

The turnaround is undeniable, but the performances have often been unconvincing. To watch Villa closely in this run is to see a team that has often won in spite of the game rather than through control of it.

Villa’s recent Midlands derby win over Wolves was typical: a tight, bitty affair decided only by Boubacar Kamara’s outstanding 20-yard strike into the top corner. It was the game’s single moment of real quality, a moment of brilliance that bore little resemblance to the preceding 70 minutes.

It was also emblematic of something that now defines this Villa side. Against Leeds, Villa again relied on a piece of individual brilliance, Morgan Rogers’ free-kick, after producing little of note in open play, to secure the three points. Increasingly, Villa’s points are being secured through isolated decisive moments rather than sustained control.

A reliance written in numbers

The statistics underline the point. Of Aston Villa’s 16 league goals this season, nine have come from outside the penalty area, an extraordinary 56%, the highest proportion at this stage in Premier League history, as highlighted by BBC Sport. Villa are outliers. Bournemouth, the next-most prolific from range, have seven. Arsenal have two. Wolves have none.

Emery insists this is no accident. Villa practise shooting extensively and he views long-range efforts as a legitimate tool against deep defensive blocks. “The players are very comfortable shooting,” he said. “They are practising a lot every training session.”

But Villa’s reliance on these strikes reflects an underlying issue: they are creating fewer high-quality chances. Their attacking play has become predictable, and when opponents deny space in central areas, Villa often struggle to find an alternative route to goal. Long-range goals have become the solution to their attacking problems.

Emery, characteristically sober, sees the danger. “We need to add goals in different ways,” he said. “We are working and analysing everything. Always I am worried for something we need to improve.”

Watkins’ form a growing concern

If the long-range goals are a solution, they are also a symptom, chiefly of Ollie Watkins’ pronounced and increasingly concerning goal drought. The England forward has now failed to score in 11 consecutive appearances, the longest barren stretch of his Villa career.

His performance in the win over Wolves was not disastrous, but nor was it encouraging. Introduced from the bench, he floated on the margins, unable to influence the rhythm of the game, rarely troubling Sam Johnstone’s goal.

The underlying data is equally stark: Watkins’ expected goals, shots per 90 and touches inside the penalty area are all down on previous seasons. His average shot distance is up, suggesting he is receiving the ball further from goal and taking lower-value attempts. 

But the concern is not merely statistical. The eye test supports the data. The sharpness has dulled. The instinctive movement has softened. The posture of a forward brimming with conviction has been replaced by the subtle hesitations of one increasingly aware of the pressure. While Watkins used to cause nightmares for defenses, constantly running in behind, he has become easy to mark out of games.

In other times, Villa would have been anchored by this problem, dragged down by the gravity of a misfiring No. 9, but Kamara’s strike, Cash’s thunderbolt, Buendia’s curler, Rogers’ precise bending efforts, have masked the void. However, such masking is temporary by nature.

Are Villa genuine title contenders?

Villa’s league position invites the question. Their defensive shape has improved, their resolve has hardened and Emery’s teams rarely suffer prolonged downturns. If this season becomes a test of consistency rather than explosive attacking power, Villa could remain close to the top longer than expected

Yet, the uncomfortable truth is that Villa’s current method of scoring, the sheer volume of long-range goals, is not historically sustainable.

Clubs do not win titles on 20-yard shots. sustaining a title challenge requires repeatable, high-percentage methods of scoring. Teams do not win titles based on speculative shots and moments of individual invention. They win by generating, and finishing, regular high-quality chances.

Emery knows this. He has said as much. “We are not scoring a lot of goals,” he noted. “We need to improve. Even when we are winning.” It is the “even” that marks out a manager who will not be deceived by the table. If Watkins continues to struggle, if Malen’s impressive form curtails, and if the midfield’s supply remains sporadic, the long-range thunderbolts will not sustain a top-four push indefinitely, let alone a title challenge.

A rising force, but a fragile formula

Aston Villa have become one of the season’s more compelling stories. Their resilience has carried them from early-season stagnation to the Champions League places. They are organised, difficult to beat and expertly coached.

But they remain heavily dependent on an unusually high number of long-range goals, an impressive trait, but not a foundation on which serious title challenges are built.

If Villa are to turn this revival into something durable, the evolution must come in the penalty area. Emery’s side have shown they can win without flowing football. To stay in the race, they will need to rediscover it.

GFN | Finn Entwistle