Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs tiers: How do teams stack up? | OneFootball

By Matthew Doyle

And so, with the conclusion of Decision Day, Major League Soccer's 30th regular season is in the books.

Let's do our usual thing: In place of my typical Sunday night column, following Decision Day we look at where everybody stands heading into the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. As usual, these teams are mostly in the order of what I think is their likelihood of winning, but what really matters is the tier designation.

For teams that didn't make the postseason, post-mortems have been trickling out over the past 10 days, with another big batch coming later this week. But here and now, into the playoffs we go…

Tier 1: I Will Be Shocked if it’s Not One of these Teams

Inter Miami CF

Last year, heading into the postseason, Miami had just won the Supporters’ Shield and set a league record with 74 points while rocking a +30 goal differential. Elite across the board… as long as you didn’t look too close.

For those who did look closely (including me! I’m so smart), it became obvious that last year’s success was at least somewhat smoke and mirrors, as their underlying numbers were middling (+0.8 xG differential for the entire season). That made them feel ripe for an upset, and as it turns out…

This year, of course, has been different. “Yeah, they haven’t won a trophy!” you cackle, because you are not a Miami fan and have delighted in the way they fell on their faces against the Whitecaps in the Concacaf Champions Cup semis, and the Sounders in the Leagues Cup final, and against Chicago with their Shield hopes on the line. And I don’t blame you! The league needs bad guys. I can’t imagine rooting for this team if you’re not a Miami fan.

But also, Miami did make it to the CCC semis and did make it to the Leagues Cup final, and did hang in the Shield race until almost the very end despite playing all those extra games. They also made it to the FIFA Club World Cup knockouts, they've got Leo Messi and Luis Suárez, and there's the motivation of trying to send out retiring legends Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba on a high note.

Most importantly, it is not smoke and mirrors this year! Their xG differential for 2025 is +18.5 – second in the East behind the Nashville team they just humiliated and dead even with the Shield-winning Philadelphia Union. They are, on both sides of the ball, a substantially better team than they were in 2024, and they just played their best half of the season. Hell, it might be the best half of anybody's season. They were terrifying on Saturday night against the very team they will meet in Round One.

So when you say “Yeah, they haven’t won a trophy!” I say “Yeah, they haven’t won a trophy – yet.”

My Worry: While they have, in fact, improved quite a bit on both sides of the ball, their transition defense is still lol-worthy way too often.

That’s point No. 1. Point No. 2 is that once things get away from them a little bit, they tend to spiral (especially against good teams) – hence the four-goal aggregate loss to the ‘Caps, the 3-0 defeat in Seattle, or the five goals they shipped at home vs. the Fire.

There is, at times, a lack of mental toughness in this group that’s kind of shocking. And I'm not entirely convinced they've moved past it despite what they inflicted on Nashville this weekend.

Also: 52 matches! Before a ball is even kicked in the playoffs! That’s so many!

And finally… it’s gonna be Rocco Ríos Novo in goal, right? Right? Can’t be Oscar Ustari, can it?

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

To me, this has been the most impressive team in the league all year, one that’s played – and imposed – a distinct style against virtually all comers despite having already played 48 games in four countries across three competitions. Along the way they’ve lost and regained their captain, seen three-fourths of their starting backline felled by injury, sold their midfield metronome, lost their star No. 9 to injury (we don't know for how long), developed a bunch of down-roster options (including several academy kids), and acquired one of the best playmakers in the history of the game.

They are fifth in the overall standings, first in goal differential, in a dead heat for first in expected goal differential, and are outright tops in both goal differential and expected goal differential against playoff teams:

Those numbers, as shown on the graphic, are from before Decision Day, so it's not finalized data. But still, you can see this team has just rocked playoff-caliber opponents, with most of that coming before Thomas Müller arrived to turbo-charge the attack.

Until playing 10-v-11 on Decision Day, they hadn’t lost in two-and-a-half months. They will absolutely be out for revenge against Dallas.

My Worry: Will the central defense hold up?

That is my only concern with this team, one that only grew after Mathias Laborda's red card on Saturday. I am so completely bought in on everything else about the 'Caps, but going into the playoffs with your sixth and seventh-choice CBs? Yikes.

Los Angeles Football Club

You can see who’s neck-and-neck with Vancouver in the underlying numbers race, and that applies against both playoff teams and non-playoff teams. That’s a change from recent seasons, as LAFC were often mostly flat-track bullies who usually struggled when they tried to pick on someone their own size.

Not the case this year. Even before adding Son Heung-Min, they were better against good teams in 2025. The best of those results was a pretty incredible 2-1 win over Club América in what was essentially a final to qualify for the Club World Cup. You could argue it’s one of the biggest wins any MLS team has ever registered.

And now, with Son and Denis Bouanga… man, nobody wants to have to stop that.

My Worry: They’ve been much better about using the ball to create chances this year, which means they can change it up in the playoffs a little bit. But head coach Steve Cherundolo still seems to prefer functional ball movers to true creativity in those spots, which can make them a little predictable and one-note. More so than any of the other teams in this tier.

Two other things:

Nashville SC

Two match-winners in Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, a deep and reliable central midfield, and Walker Zimmerman is healthy now after battling injuries all season long. Zimmerman’s not quite the player he was two years ago, but he still elevates this team both from the run of play and on set pieces.

They’ve also won a trophy already this year, beating Austin on the road in the US Open Cup final. Along the way, they beat the absolute brakes off of the Shield-winning Union in the semifinals – real “there was only one team on the field!” stuff. That’s a very impressive win.

They’re not as deep as the other teams in this group, which limited them in the regular season. But in a short tournament with plenty of rest between games, that’s just not as much of a handicap. Especially so since they’ve shown the ability, under B.J. Callaghan, to toggle between game models depending upon the situation. I think they’re probably not an easy scout.

Two other notes. First, here’s the games played tally for the teams in this group:

Nashville? 39. They’ll have their legs in a way the other top teams don’t.

Second, four of the past five MLS Cup winners (including each of the past three) failed to qualify for the playoffs in the previous season. The ‘Yotes, of course, watched last season’s playoffs from home (Philly, Austin and Dallas are the others who get this boost).

My Worry: They have no reliable third goalscorer. Hany and Surridge have combined for 47 goals across all competitions; nobody else on the roster has more than four.

If the DPs suddenly slump, they’re cooked. And even if they don't slump, this team is not really equipped to win a shootout, as that Miami loss showed. Guess who they've got in Round One? Yeah.

Plus... one point from two games post-Open Cup. Is that a title hangover I see?

Seattle Sounders FC

They were awesome in the Club World Cup despite losing all three games to Botafogo (the Copa Libertadores champs), PSG (the UEFA Champions League Champs) and Atlético Madrid (Atlético freaking Madrid). They spun the confidence generated by those performances against three of the ~15 best teams in the world into a two-month blitz in which they went 10W-1L-4D across all competitions, culminating with a dominant 3-0 win over Miami in the Leagues Cup final. Their goal differential over those 15 games was +24.

That stretch is the best I’ve seen an MLS team play this year. Period. And they were doing it while constantly on short rest, and constantly having to rotate their squad due to injuries and absences. Remember: In that final they played without their DP 9 (and their backup 9, who happens to be their leading goalscorer) and DP 10, as well as their starting left back.

And they buried the Herons.

They’re in this tier because we’ve seen them do it against the best.

My Worry: They were also without their starting ‘keeper in Leagues Cup, which was by choice. I think there’s a pretty good case to keep making that choice, but I am close to certain that Brian Schmetzer will stick with Stefan Frei in goal over Andrew Thomas.

Three other personnel concerns:

I have a real feeling that the Sounders have already peaked this year, just like the Crew heading into last season’s playoffs. But I’m keeping them in this tier because my god, were they terrifying all summer long, and there's a chance they can hit that level again.

Tier 2: Prove Me Wrong!

Philadelphia Union

The Union are deserving Shield winners. Week after week, when other teams would drop their level, Philly would come out with fire in their eyes and the throttle cranked to 110% percent, imposing their will on whoever they were playing. Other teams saw D.C. and took their foot off the gas, trying to ease to a win; Philly saw D.C. and said “let’s score a touchdown.”

They have arguably the best center back pairing in the league, arguably the best fullbacks, and arguably the best d-mids. They have one of the three or four greatest ‘keepers in MLS history, and a lot of attackers who’ve scored goals this year.

They have a clear, defined style, and everybody bought in, week after week after week. That's how you win the Shield.

My Worry: That's not how you win the Cup.

That style – based upon forcing bad turnovers and punishing sloppy, hesitant play – is demonstrably more effective in the regular season than in the playoffs, when by definition you’re facing teams much less prone to bad turnovers and hesitant, sloppy play, and where you’re almost certainly not going to have any sort of pronounced intensity advantage.

What works great against the D.C.s and Atlantas of the world is much less effective in big games against big teams. This time of year, you need to be able to win with top-end roster quality, and the Union lack that.

To that end, know what Philly’s record in all competitions was against the Tier 1 group? 0W-5L-1D, with a -13 goal differential. They're basically the opposite of the 'Caps.

Again: this team 100% deserved to win the Shield, which I think is the hardest and best domestic trophy to win. I just don’t think they have the top-end talent to follow it up by winning MLS Cup as well.

San Diego FC

Polar opposite game model from Philly, which prioritizes staying on the ball and staying out of physical duels. Which isn’t to say they can’t win those – San Diego are actually very good in that area – it’s just not how they want the game to be determined.

The way they want the game to be determined is by getting on the ball, knocking it around deep in midfield, pulling the opponents upfield, and then releasing those brilliant wingers, Anders Dreyer and Chucky Lozano (if healthy!), in behind.

They have beaten Seattle, Vancouver, Nashville and LAFC – twice! – like that. When things are going great they’re really, really excellent.

My Worry: Things were a lot more excellent in the first half of the season, when they logged most of those wins. Since July they are 8W-6L-3D across all competitions, with a +7 goal differential, and were actually under water on expected goals until steamrolling the Timbers this weekend.

Part of that is injuries and attrition – they’re an expansion team, so it makes sense that they’re not quite as deep as the other teams in the 60-points neighborhood. Part of it is that they’ve not found a replacement for Milan Iloski at the 9 after parting ways with him following his blazing-hot spring (how different would the table look if a different decision had been made there?).

Part of it, though, is that the game model isn’t as novel as it was to start the season. There’s film now; nobody (except Portland, I guess) will be surprised anymore.

FC Cincinnati

They have more attacking talent than… anyone? Three guys, in Evander, Kévin Denkey and Brenner (and maybe a fourth in Luca Orellano) who can go out and just brute force a win against anybody.

They have a DP-caliber d-mid (provided he’s healthy). They have a match-winner in goal. They have spent more on center backs than anybody else in MLS. All of these guys are good-to-great players.

On paper, they should be a dominant club.

My Worry: On grass, they have almost never looked like a cohesive unit. Know how we were all crowing about Miami outperforming their underlying numbers to an unsustainable degree last year? Miami’s per-90 xG differential was +0.02. They were mid.

Cincy, this year, are -0.24! They’ve been bad!! They are so gappy – so easy to move the ball against – and allow so many good chances on one side of the ball. And then everything on the other side of the ball seems to come down to individual brilliance.

That brilliance can be absolutely blinding at times.

Can Evander et al go out and win you four straight playoff rounds? Yes. They're that talented.

Should you expect them to? I don't.

Tier 3: You Can Make a Plausible Case

New York City FC

The Pigeons were mostly scuffling along through the first half of the year, and if anything, they looked like a good bet to drop in the standings since their second-half schedule was brutal.

But they added DP playmaker/winger Nicolás Fernández Mercau as soon as the summer window opened and have registered these wins since then: at Orlando, vs. Nashville, at Cincinnati, at Chicago, vs. Columbus, and vs. Charlotte.

They also got trucked 4-0 by Miami during that stretch, and then lost a very tight 1-0 match in Chester two weeks ago before their 2-1 Decision Day loss to the Sounders on a pair of set pieces. So they’re far from perfect.

But they have been demonstrably very good against the types of teams they have to beat to get to the big game.

My Worry: “Alonso Martínez and Hannes Wolf” isn’t exactly “Messi and Suárez” or “Son and Bouanga” or… literally any of the top goalscoring duos from non-Philly teams in the top two tiers. Top-end quality, right?

And as great an addition as Fernández Mercau has been, it’s not like he’s fixed that: he’s got just three goals in around 1,000 minutes himself.

Really good team. Not enough firepower.

Columbus Crew

When they’re in full flow, this team’s still able to get on the ball, control the game and create chances against anybody. They effectively force you to play the contest on their terms, and over the past several years, we’ve seen them repeatedly do this in big games not just against the best in MLS, but against the best in the region.

Let them do it to you, and there’s a good chance you’re going home.

Sean Zawadzki is back on the field looking healthy, and they’ve got the added incentive of sending the legendary Darlington Nagbe out on a high note. They looked really, really good in the final couple of games of the season.

My Worry: Patrick Schulte is slumping, the center backs aren’t great at defending in their own box, and their game model has been brittle this year – as in, easier to disrupt, and then once it’s disrupted the whole thing falls apart and you’re making them play on your terms – in a way it hadn’t been the prior two.

Diego Rossi is less than 100%, Wessam Abou Ali is likely done until 2026, and Dániel Gazdag… that was a very nice bounce-back against the Red Bulls. Is there more to come? I'm not convinced.

Hard to win when there are so many questions around your DP attackers.

Minnesota United

Like Philly, Columbus and San Diego, Minnesota have an unusual game model that you can’t quite prepare for in training: they get sub-40% possession, tilt the field less than anyone, and turn every throw-in or free kick in the attacking half into a “get ‘er into the mixer!” situation.

They also have a match-winning goalkeeper. Dayne St. Clair will likely win Goalkeeper of the Year, and if he gets hot over the next month, he can win a game… or two… or three… or four. All on his own.

My Worry: Strike one: They’re just 4W-4L-2D in their past 10 across all competitions, a stretch that includes maybe the worst loss anybody’s taken this year: 2-1 at home against Austin in extra time of the Open Cup semis.

Strike two: Since selling Tani Oluwaseyi and losing Kelvin Yeboah to injury, it’s tough to make a case that they’ve got enough in attack against the types of defenses they’ll have to face in the playoffs (which is to say, I’m not reading much into what they did against KC in their regular-season home finale). That lack of punch up top means they’ve gone to a 4-4-2 with a pair of false 9s, which… yeah. I’m skeptical. And what we've seen the past couple of weeks (including getting Saturday in Carson) has not shaken me out of my skepticism.

I think strike three is the game model, which is too limited. But hey, I’ve been wrong before! So we’ll see.

Orlando City

At their very best, they’ve been so good this year – Martín Ojeda playing like a Landon Donovan MLS MVP candidate, Luis Muriel looking like a Best XI-caliber playmaking No. 9, Pedro Gallese turning the clock back five years, Eduard Atuesta and César Araújo dominating central midfield and Alex Freeman presenting an overlapping threat like few fullbacks in the entire world.

I couldn’t quite find an artful way to work Marco Pašalić into that verse. But he’s been really good – 15g/6a across all competitions.

My Worry: We saw them get to the semis of the Leagues Cup and collapse, first against Miami (who’d they’d previously dominated) and then, somehow, against the Galaxy in the third-place match with a spot in the Concacaf Champions Cup on the line.

Araújo’s been hurt most of the second half of the year and now Robin Jansson is, too. Gallese, after turning the clock back five years, has now pushed it forward 10 or 15. It's grim.

Even if they were all healthy and playing well, though, here’s the real bottleneck: Muriel has to be cooking for it all to work at a championship level, and he hasn't scored a goal in the past two months.

Do you believe he can score, say, six over the the next two? That’s about what it’d take.

Charlotte FC

Any team with an excellent central defense (check), an excellent goalkeeper (check) and a couple of match-winners up top (uhhh... that was a "check" until the final minutes against Philly; more on that below) can get hot and go on an extended winning streak. Under the right conditions, that streak could even hit something like, say, nine games. Which is a whole hell of a lot!

Obviously, we have seen Charlotte do this. They are murder on the break and very good on set pieces, and generally don’t give up cheap goals. It’s the recipe for a high floor.

My Worry: And yet they’re actually under water on expected goal differential on the season, and even had a negative xGD during that nine-game streak.

So, how did it happen? Kristijan Kahlina. He was, even by his own high standards, abso-freakinglutely unbelievable during those couple of months.

It also happened because the schedule was kind of soft – lots of home games against lots of non-playoff teams. That’s obviously not going to happen over the next couple of months.

And now they'll be down to one match-winner for part of the playoffs with Wilfried Zaha suspended for their Round One opener against NYCFC (what a way to let the team down with a petulant red) and Pep Biel still hurt. They’re not precisely limping into the playoffs, but they’re not precisely flying, either.

Tier 4: Prove Me Even More Wrong!

Chicago Fire FC

They’ve been one of the more fun and open attacking teams in MLS this season, capable of turning any game into the sort of up-and-down affair that can, in theory, suck even the most disciplined teams in.

I’m not sure anybody in the league is as good at creating simultaneous attacking width and depth. You have to be ready to account for everything when facing this team.

My Worry: They played 21 games against playoff teams this year, across all competitions. They won just seven of them. It’s been better down the stretch with wins against Minnesota, Columbus and Miami (they really did break their playoff drought in style), but I’m putting more stock into the larger sample size.

They have the worst defense in the East by the underlying numbers, and the third-worst defense in the East by the actual numbers. I just don’t think it’s going to be good enough.

FC Dallas

Just getting here is really impressive! Dallas looked dead and buried by June, and then more deader and more buried-er after Lucho Acosta pouted his way into a transfer when the summer window opened. They built this roster around the idea of having an elite No. 10, right? There’s no 10 in this group anymore, elite or otherwise.

They charged through the second half of the season anyway. But then they picked up a loss and a couple of crucial suspensions heading into Decision Day, so… the bell finally tolled, right?

Nope. This team’s got real resilience and mental strength, a good-enough defense, a really good goalkeeper, and also have a Best XI-caliber center forward who can win you a game or two. They are a tough out.

My Worry: The only hand they can play is to sit deep, absorb pressure and hit on the break. Or set pieces.

They’re good at it – just look at their record since getting rid of Lucho. But even against 10-man Vancouver, they’re out there just defending for their lives the entire time.

No one’s ever won MLS Cup that way. Even 2010 Colorado had a bit of soccer in their boots.

Austin FC

Austin have shown their bona fides in a knockout tournament, fighting all the way to the US Open Cup final before taking that heartbreaking loss to Nashville. They’re generally really good at getting numbers behind the ball and keeping their shape, are good on set pieces, and in Owen Wolff have one of the most underappreciated attackers in the league.

My Worry: Myrto Uzuni should be a match-winner in this league. He mostly hasn’t been so far, though, and neither has Osman Bukari.

They also lack the kind of midfield creativity top teams have. So when a team falls apart like San Jose fall apart, Austin can take advantage. But can they take it to a good team? Nah.

Portland Timbers

They won enough in the first half of the year to build a pretty nice cushion. James Pantemis was awesome, they stopped giving up set-piece goals, and Finn Surman is a savant in emergency defense.

My Worry: Haven’t won much since then. The forwards don’t score, the wingers don’t score, and the midfielders don’t score. Pantemis hasn’t really been the same since a mid-season leg injury and is now mostly platooning with Maxime Crépeau, who’s only been ok.

Since a 1-0 win over Austin on Matchday 2, they’ve faced 16 playoff teams. They’ve managed one win. Feels pertinent.

Real Salt Lake

Positively charged down the stretch with a… 3W-6L-1D record over their final 10 games. Which, it turns out, was just barely good enough, as they edged out San Jose for ninth in the West.

They’ve got some goalscorers and some playmakers, and they’ve been here before. A lot, as a matter of fact: this is their fifth-straight postseason appearance, which is the most in the West.

My Worry: The underlying numbers say they’re a bottom-five team in the league and honestly… yeah. I don’t think that’s super inaccurate based on their body of work this year. They just managed to win a few games on the margins because of Rafael Cabral in net, and got hot for six weeks at the start of summer – a stretch that included a crucial, it turns out, 2-1 win over San Jose.

That stretch also included a 1-0 win at Portland. I don’t think even the most deluded RSL fan can talk themselves into believing this team’s about to make an MLS Cup run. But a Wild Card win? That’s very, very possible.